LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Feel free to give your o/u relative to these fx: ACY 14.5 EWR 8.2 NYC 10.7 JFK 12.5 LGA 14.4 ISP 21.3 (local e LI 25-30) BDR 18.8 BDL 14.5 PVD 26.5 BOS 30.2 PWM 27.5 CON 25.5 ORH 34.5 HYA 22.5 ALB 3.5 POU 7.0 no way LGA gets more than JFK unless there's a measuring mistake or error EWR -8 NYC -10 LGA -12 JFK -15 similar to December 2009 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 06z GFS takes a track past Cape Cod and hooks back into western Gulf of Maine. I noted a possible 50-100 mile eastward initialization error (shows as 70.5W but more likely 71.5W) which I think could translate into additional deepening on what is already quite an impressive 18-hour deepening cycle (to 970 mbs as shown). Factoring that in I would expect very slow eastward drift of the banding and heavy snow axes now setting up, and possibly back into that earlier "superstorm" sort of evolution which might up snowfall potential especially for LI and CT, and also wind speed potential later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just came in from measuring, 6.4” total snow so far. Expecting another 9-12” here, winds aren’t too bad right now. Strongest gust in the past 30 min was about 34 mph, but I did have a gust to about 44 mph around 4:00 am, and that remains the peak so far for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I just woke up a little while ago… how did the surface low end up tracking and precipitation shield go versus what was expected since last night?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 After looking at the models the past few days, I think they need a 5 day covid quarantine. They have to be sick with how they handled this system. Maybe we should try the good old system restart haha. Still it is turning out to be quite a fun storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The eastward trend is real. Frankly, Im tired of the narratives and the spin. This is a MAJOR eastern LI storm which is fringing the city. As modeled! As modeled! As modeled! And for the next storm if any of you dismiss the Eastward trend that has been with us all season, you should be mocked as much as you laugh at that snowman guy 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, the_other_guy said: The eastward trend is real. Frankly, Im tired of the narratives and the spin. This is a MAJOR eastern LI storm which is fringing the city. As modeled! As modeled! As modeled! And for the next storm if any of you dismiss the Eastward trend that has been with us all season, you should be mocked as much as you laugh at that snowman guy Yeah, no. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How much near the Nassau/Queens line at JFK Maybe 15? HREF was around 12”-13” at JFK with 15” near the Nassau County-Queens border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Yeah, no. what do you have up there? Bet you dont need a 6 inch ruler. You got fringed and Mr GFS says hi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, the_other_guy said: what do you have up there? Bet you dont need a 6 inch ruler. You got fringed and Mr GFS says hi! Uhh, i was always supposed to be fringed. NYC is not “fringed”, and the gfs was god awful. Try again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, BxEngine said: Uhh, i was always supposed to be fringed. NYC is not “fringed”, and the gfs was god awful. Try again. Early on it showed the Eastward extreme pull while we did snow dances around the NAM. No way you cant acknowledge that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS crushed it man. So good. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, the_other_guy said: Early on it showed the Eastward extreme pull while we did snow dances around the NAM. No way you cant acknowledge that I had more in an hour overnight than 4 consecutive runs of the gfs had for me total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: The eastward trend is real. Frankly, Im tired of the narratives and the spin. This is a MAJOR eastern LI storm which is fringing the city. As modeled! As modeled! As modeled! And for the next storm if any of you dismiss the Eastward trend that has been with us all season, you should be mocked as much as you laugh at that snowman guy As modeled when ? Are we talking 4 days ago or 3 days ago or 2 days ago ? or as modeled yesterday ? I mean just 24 hours ago as modeled meant one thing in the morning and something else in the later hours and it meant something else depending if you looked at the models 24 or then 48 hours earlier. The GFS had this Storm East and even yesterday ( less than 24 hours before game time the GFS swung closer to the Euro and the Nam and the others only to swing back the other way later in the day. IMO,,,As modeled does not hold as much weight as advertised by you or anyone else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS even grossly underestimated us down at the NJ coast. I have over a foot at this point with more coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 What I said above was when you guys clung onto epic hits and the GFS was East, it was dismissed as an outlier. Several of us pointed out that you shouldn’t dismiss it given seasonal trends. It caught on very early that this was going to be an East storm. And it was dismissed. And when all is said and done, this is a heavily eastern storm. So it was onto something early on and dismissed as an outlier…but there was some truth in its eastern extremes. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: What I said above was when you guys clung onto epic hits and the GFS was East, it was dismissed as an outlier. Several of us pointed out that you shouldn’t dismiss it given seasonal trends. It caught on very early that this was going to be an East storm. And it was dismissed. And when all is said and done, this is a heavily eastern storm. So it was onto something early on and dismissed as an outlier…but there was some truth in its eastern extremes. Enjoy the snow! It was worse than anything other than the most extreme NAM solutions. Giving it any more credence than that is attempting to rewrite history for the sake of having an argument. Time to go shovel the flurries the gfs gave me. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 33 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: The eastward trend is real. Frankly, Im tired of the narratives and the spin. This is a MAJOR eastern LI storm which is fringing the city. As modeled! As modeled! As modeled! And for the next storm if any of you dismiss the Eastward trend that has been with us all season, you should be mocked as much as you laugh at that snowman guy 6-12 is fringed ? Smh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Gfs was horrible with the storm 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Gfs upper air evolution was night and day from reality. Gfs failed on this. End of story. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs was horrible with the storm The GFS and many other " as modeled " were pretty bad or if it makes some people feel better, call them erratic to say the least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 He is talking about east end but many posters in central NJ and central LI have over 12 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: He is talking about east end but many posters in central NJ and central LI have over 12 inches. MJO, yes I see what was written and I am also SMH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 inches so far in highland mills in Orange county. 9 degrees and moderate snow continues. GFS had me for 0 inches Thursday night. End of story at least for how it performed up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 37 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I had more in an hour overnight than 4 consecutive runs of the gfs had for me total. Gfs gets an F. Euro gets a C. NAM forgot to take the test and is sitting at home picking it's nose. Rgem cut class to smoke some weed. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Pretty bad performance by all of the models tbh. The Euro wins by default even though it was too far west then too far east. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Isn’t it amusing that it’s the same thing year after year? Some people chase models as if they’re gospel, when they’re just a bow in the quiver of knowledge we have.Anyway, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but all of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I'd say the GFS underestimated considerably. Still more falling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gfs gets an F. Euro gets a C. NAM forgot to take the test and is sitting at home picking it's nose. Rgem cut class to smoke some weed. Here is the ukie 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Torch said: If we are giving the guidance such low marks, how did we see this coming 5 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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