coastalplainsnowman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 56 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: I hope my area gets fringed with 3-6 inches. And areas southeast and north east get smoked just to give most people their storm. I'll take that, with a Saturday "taxpayers" storm is what we call it. Easy 15 hours OT "Taxpayers storm." You $#*%(*s even have a name for it lol. Up to this point I didn't care how much I got, but now that I realize that I'm literally paying for it I want my money's worth god@$# it! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Geese everybody. Step off the ledge. Could this miss us? Yes. But anyone whose been following should know that by now. You have three pieces of energy and no blocking whatsoever. Models are going to change. Sit back and hold tight. There is the potential for nothing to historic. It unfortunately is a wait and see. Side note : this is why historic storms are just that: historic. They are rare. Not saying it won't happen. agree 100% anyone who even suggests this might be a HECS 4 - 5 days in advance has a lot to learn IMO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agree 100% anyone who even suggests this might be a HECS 4 - 5 days in advance has a lot to learn IMO... This might be a HECS. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: the ceiling with this event is super high 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 33 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: What evidence is there that the Gulf Stream is slowing down? I just think the sst anomaly is being given too much weight in the potential to increase snow totals when compared to a multitude of other factors. The record SSTs result in deeper low pressure, heavier precipitation, and stronger winds when storms can track close enough to our area. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Saying these things doesn't mean this will be a HECS and doesn't mean we will hit the ceiling. The potential is there though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: "Taxpayers storm." You $#*%(*s even have a name for it lol. Up to this point I didn't care how much I got, but now that I realize that I'm literally paying for it I want my money's worth god@$# it! Lmao Saturday storms are way less stressful. Everyone's home. Also no worst feeling working a 7-330 normal shift, for it to start snowing at 3pm. Work all through the night, clean up by 10, only to get stuck until 330pm to finish out your normal shift. Up for 36 hours straight is no fun multiple times a year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: agree 100% anyone who even suggests this might be a HECS has a lot to learn IMO... 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: This might be a HECS. well you are the boss here- never argue with the boss 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: well you are the boss here- never argue with the boss You can argue/disagree with me all you want. That's 100% allowed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agree 100% anyone who even suggests this might be a HECS 4 - 5 days in advance has a lot to learn IMO... 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: This might be a HECS. 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: well you are the boss here- never argue with the boss 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: You can argue/disagree with me all you want. That's 100% allowed. No way Bx is going to let this go…. As always …. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: What evidence is there that the Gulf Stream is slowing down? I just think the sst anomaly is being given too much weight in the potential to increase snow totals when compared to a multitude of other factors. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/05/major-atlantic-current-may-be-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/?sh=42b0d96a47aa The study, which appeared in the journal Nature Climate Change, found several signs that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, is slowing down and might be about to collapse.Aug 5, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 agree 100% anyone who even suggests this might be a HECS 4 - 5 days in advance has a lot to learn IMO...This is why you don’t go crazy this far out. It may or may not happen, but you set yourself up for heartbreak if you take it was gospel so soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 51 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Its called leaving the door open to lesser amounts then some of Mondays models are advertising - a lot of people here are setting themselves up for major disappointment because of 1 days worth runs showing heavy amounts with 4 days still to go ........ Life is a lot easier if you only pay attention to 0z and 12z model runs, trust me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: The record SSTs result in deeper low pressure, heavier precipitation, and stronger winds when storms can track close enough to our area. Wow, excellent, so the data input into the simulation showed we got 25 pct more snow in Jan 2016 because of this change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The major shift in the 18z GFS from 12z is a reminder how important it is that the energy in the southwest properly phases. Also in other news the 12z Canadian finally came in on TT: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I dont trust any 6z or 18z model runs. The GFS will almost always throw out an odd run and yes it's often on the 6z or 18z cycle. However if 0Z models all trend east then i'd get worried. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro and gfs are night and day at h5 Euro isn't holding back anything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro and gfs are night and day at h5 Euro isn't holding back anything You're referencing the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: You're referencing the 18z Euro? Yes Euro looks better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes Euro looks better than 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 18z euro would be a phase bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: The 18z Euro only goes out 84 hrs. The ensembles do go out to our storm timeframe though so I’ll be interested in that. I agree too much freaking out. Lots of pieces to this storm and we need them to cooperate. We need at least some southern stream involvement here, a solution where it hangs back that much wouldn’t work. But quite a ways to go. I wouldn’t lock into anything for another 48hrs at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The 18z Euro only goes out 84 hrs. The ensembles do go out to our storm timeframe though so I’ll be interested in that. I agree too much freaking out. Lots of pieces to this storm and we need them to cooperate. We need at least some southern stream involvement here, a solution where it hangs back that much wouldn’t work. But quite a ways to go. I wouldn’t lock into anything for another 48hrs at least. Thanks. I forgot the 18z only went out to 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thanks. I forgot the 18z only went out to 84 hours. it actually goes out to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The GFS will almost always throw out an odd run and yes it's often on the 6z or 18z cycle. However if 0Z models all trend east then i'd get worried. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: it actually goes out to 90 And at 90 it leaves very little behind in the southern stream. Extrapolated out I believe it would have been an interesting 102 and beyond. Still, LOTS of moving parts and best we can do is watch the trends. NOTHING is written is stone and likely won't be for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Its called leaving the door open to lesser amounts then some of Mondays models are advertising - a lot of people here are setting themselves up for major disappointment because of 1 days worth runs showing heavy amounts with 4 days still to go ........ AMEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch said: This is not history, what did or didn’t happen up to now has no bearing on Saturday’s outcome. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Dont diminish seasonal precedent of trending east with a fast flow. Especially if it starts to show again This is too far out to get excited And it is certainly too far out to dismiss another out to sea possibility There seems to be a subforum opinion that we have to have a major snow this January. The pattern is too good. Yet the pattern keeps proving hostile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro and gfs are night and day at h5 Euro isn't holding back anything Big red flag. Euro has a tendency to hold back energy. Since the Euro doesn’t show it there’s good reason to discard the GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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