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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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Nam looks good at hour 9, not east, but slightly north with a higher pressure and slightly lower pressure. Then at hour 12 it gets back on the double barrel train and gets sheared apart. If it really is just chasing convection like some mets think, we're in better business than we think/it looks like. 

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It does spread some decent snow inland for a while. Morristown looked like 0.5-0.6 liquid which would be warning amounts. 

It would be kinda neat to see if where the cutoff is at this very moment doesn’t budge any further. Just neat from watching storms like this for years. It’s five miles away from me.


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Intel’s after 12Z not much for NYC

NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                             7P JAN28
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7P 28-JAN  -0.4    -8.0    1017      88      87             540     526    
SAT  1A 29-JAN  -3.0    -7.3    1013      92      88    0.09     538     528    
SAT  7A 29-JAN  -8.6    -9.6    1005      89      88    0.36     529     526    
SAT  1P 29-JAN  -8.2   -11.4    1003      86      88    0.12     524     522    
SAT  7P 29-JAN  -8.9   -11.0    1004      61      83    0.05     523     519    
SUN  1A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  1P 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7P 30-JAN                                                                  
MON  1A 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  7A 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  1P 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  7P 31-JAN                                                                  
TUE  1A 01-FEB                                                                  
TUE  7A 01-FEB                                                                  
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1 minute ago, Mitchel Volk said:
Intel’s after 12Z not much for NYC

NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                             7P JAN28
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7P 28-JAN  -0.4    -8.0    1017      88      87             540     526    
SAT  1A 29-JAN  -3.0    -7.3    1013      92      88    0.09     538     528    
SAT  7A 29-JAN  -8.6    -9.6    1005      89      88    0.36     529     526    
SAT  1P 29-JAN  -8.2   -11.4    1003      86      88    0.12     524     522    
SAT  7P 29-JAN  -8.9   -11.0    1004      61      83    0.05     523     519    
SUN  1A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  1P 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7P 30-JAN                                                                  
MON  1A 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  7A 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  1P 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  7P 31-JAN                                                                  
TUE  1A 01-FEB                                                                  
TUE  7A 01-FEB                                                                  
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ISP des much better

AM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: ISP    LAT=  40.78 LON=  -73.10 ELE=    98

                                             7P JAN28
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7P 28-JAN  -0.4    -6.5    1017      84      89             541     527    
SAT  1A 29-JAN  -1.4    -5.7    1012      95      89    0.17     539     530    
SAT  7A 29-JAN  -5.4    -8.2    1002      92      89    0.62     531     529    
SAT  1P 29-JAN  -9.4    -8.4     999      89      88    0.47     522     523    
SAT  7P 29-JAN  -7.8    -9.8    1001      63      87    0.20     521     520    
SUN  1A 30-JAN -11.9   -11.5    1007      61       7    0.00     523     518
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