dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: The gfs was wrong the entire time. The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream. Time will tell. I fish the NE and have for 30+ years. I also take monthly samples that are irrelevant compared to SST satellite temps. Too many variables to draw conclusions to any single event, let alone season. Still enjoy. And still see potential. just ramping up. Edit: commercially fish and observe the NE canyons for a living. (Walking dog and typing...give me a break) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said: Whatever model drops the most snow in my backyard is correct It's been a rough day. I'm ok with this logic. But just for today. It actually has a name. It's call the Metsfan. 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 the low off the coast is further north and east of modelled per Dave Curran of news 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well, I don't know what the hell to expect, but a blizzard IMBY isn't happening. Now will I see a plowable event? I'm not so sure right now. Costco is a madhouse though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: the low off the coast is further north and east of modelled per Dave Curran of news 12 That would leave us mostly out of it I would think, especially out your way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Weast IMG_6036.MOV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, dseagull said: Time will tell. I fish the NE and have for 30+ years. I also take monthly samples that are irrelevant compared to SST satellite temps. Too many variables to draw conclusions to any single event, let alone season. Still enjoy. And still see potential. just ramping up. Fished the same for nearly 40 years. My how it has changed. A 3 fish limit on blues. OTOH, never seen so many striped bass in the Raritan, all the way up the river to Edison. Big ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 33 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: A month of great blocking and we couldn't buy a drop of precip. Now the storm train is rolling and there's an express track from NC out into the Atlantic. Maybe “convection” can bail us out next time there’s a 3/14/17 type storm. Of course those are when all systems are go and the people who are supposed to get buried go without a hitch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Radar exploding IMG_6037.MOV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Some precip popping up just south of LI now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, dseagull said: Time will tell. I fish the NE and have for 30+ years. I also take monthly samples that are irrelevant compared to SST satellite temps. Too many variables to draw conclusions to any single event, let alone season. Still enjoy. And still see potential. just ramping up. Edit: commercially fish and observe the NE canyons for a living. (Walking dog and typing...give me a break) Used to work the deck on party boats ( remember those? They are going out of business fast ) in Atl Highlands; worked with the Dave from Wicked Tuna when he was a HS kid. 1982. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hope everyone is well!! Been quite A WHILE since posting. Turned into a lurker here as I didn’t have much to contribute. Looks like we have a nice little storm here. I’ve always looked at it this way for the NE NJ/NYC area lower elevations..we tend to get 6” of snow fairly often. I consider 6” here a solid snowstorm. To get much more than that, there usually needs to be something special for our area. It could be a storm bombing out, enhanced banding, or high ratios. The latter is rare for us, but it seems it could happen here. Obviously a storm bombing out in just the right place would give us 12”+, and if we have more than one of those “special” things, it would usually be a lock for a foot of snow, but it seems that will be for parts of LI through SNE for this one. The models have been consistently inconsistent, but overall not their worst showing with this storm. I think 6-10” is a good call for this area right now. Moderate snow and higher ratios than 10:1, probably 6 or 7”. Occasional heavier banding plus higher than normal ratios may surprise some of us by when we measure 8-10” possibly. A slight shift west and even 10-12” is not out of the question, though I do think most of the 12-18”+ amounts will be from the coastal NJ areas up through LI. If nothing else, it’s pretty cool to see the “snow depth” map totals better than the “total snowfall 10:1” maps!. Pro 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said: Hope everyone is well!! Been quite A WHILE since posting. Turned into a lurker here as I didn’t have much to contribute. Looks like we have a nice little storm here. I’ve always looked at it this way for the NE NJ/NYC area lower elevations..we tend to get 6” of snow fairly often. I consider 6” here a solid snowstorm. To get much more than that, there usually needs to be something special for our area. It could be a storm bombing out, enhanced banding, or high ratios. The latter is rare for us, but it seems it could happen here. Obviously a storm bombing out in just the right place would give us 12”+, and if we have more than one of those “special” things, it would usually be a lock for a foot of snow, but it seems that will be for parts of LI through SNE for this one. The models have been consistently inconsistent, but overall not their worst showing with this storm. I think 6-10” is a good call for this area right now. Moderate snow and higher ratios than 10:1, probably 6 or 7”. Occasional heavier banding plus higher than normal ratios may surprise some of us by when we measure 8-10” possibly. A slight shift west and even 10-12” is not out of the question, though I do think most of the 12-18”+ amounts will be from the coastal NJ areas up through LI. If nothing else, it’s pretty cool to see the “snow depth” map totals better than the “total snowfall 10:1” maps! . Pro Love the optimism but it doesn't sound like NE NJ is going to see much if things play out the way some think. But we will take what comes, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snowing in Massapequa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think the snow in our area is probably still from the northern stream disturbance isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think the snow in our area is probably still from the northern stream disturbance isn't it? WAA interacting with the surface cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think the snow in our area is probably still from the northern stream disturbance isn't it? Partly yes. It’s warm advection ahead of the main low (whatever that is given the model trends) developing off the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So bare ground tomorrow? NWS drops all warnings next update? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: in 24 hours every single person in this forum will be unhappy i can't wait basically a free surprise christmas i am the greatest i am formally demanding a red tag 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Torch said: No chance I know, just surprised at how many are tossing this altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 West 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: i am the greatest i am formally demanding a red tag Great call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: West Guess we just gotta see what happens 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: West And clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: West Sooooo close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Love the optimism but it doesn't sound like NE NJ is going to see much if things play out the way some think. But we will take what comes, right?Most models show at least 6”. Not the 12”+ that recent runs put out, but that was really only a couple cycles on individual models that did anyway. The latest HRRR gives the area 8-10. I find it tends to be overdone with marginal temps when it often shows 6-10” and we end up with 3”. This is a situation where I feel the 8” could easily verify and wouldn’t be surprised at all if we get a bit more than that.. Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The stupid thing should be west with a look like this. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: West Wayy west 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 That was a big shift west on EURO. 0.8 LE central park. 1.0 Le cuts through queens and Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Wayy west Insane isn't it.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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