psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: FWIW 12z and old data. Gotta toss that imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: LOL SNE ‘s are literally bridge jumping because they went from 24+ to 12-18”. Wish we had that problem. Someone will get 24+ just a matter of where. It could be in an unexpected area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Projected qpf output has been steady & consistent up here. Pretty much 0.25-0.35. Factor in high ratios and we have ourselves a decent event. If the storm is flatter it might almost help inland areas if the cut off is less sharp due to less subsidence, of course if it goes too far east then we all get nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Going to be plenty of surprises... thing is cranking now. Bombs away. Look at the satelite satellite presentation. Further NE, but this thing is going to set up some incredible rates in these bands with the expansion. NYC still getting a foot. Coastal Monmouth and Ocean in Jersey will see pockets of 18 plus. Good storm. Beautiful transition from something we discounted less than 36-48 hours ago... and on a weekend none the less. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, justinj said: Someone will get 24+ just a matter of where. It could be in an unexpected area. I expect it to be east of Riverhead or on Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Brutal situation for modeling. If this thing fails. We could have a lot of the sne crew wash ashore after leaping into the sound. Good evening E L I. Well said…. And that is only the “Tip” of the iceberg. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, dseagull said: Going to be plenty of surprises... thing is cranking now. Bombs away. Look at the satelite satellite presentation. Further NE, but this thing is going to set up some incredible rates in these bands with the expansion. NYC still getting a foot. Coastal Monmouth and Ocean in Jersey will see pockets of 18 plus. Good storm. Beautiful transition from something we discounted less than 36-48 hours ago... and on a weekend none the less. I agree Something is weird right now with the models 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I agree Something is weird right now with the models Yeah its called not showing a jackpot in your backyard, 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I agree Something is weird right now with the models It's over lol. SECS coming city east. Enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Time to nowcast and let this happen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: It's over lol. SECS coming city east. Enjoy it. So it went from 16+ in ISP to being over in 20 minutes? What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Pixie dust begins on Barnegat Bay. Returns should fill in over the next 45-60 minutes. A band is going to set up north of here within 2 hours. 2018 redux version? Edit : light snow came in like a wall within 2 minutes, and large flakes. Instantly beginning to cover lawn, boat, and car. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rmine1 said: So it went from 16+ in ISP to being over in 20 minutes? What did I miss? Awful trends, wouldn’t be surprised if this is a 6-10 Nassau east and 3-6 for nyc by 0z tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: So it went from 16+ in ISP to being over in 20 minutes? What did I miss? You missed people being upset they’re not going jackpot in there backyard. This is going to be a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Pixie dust begins on Barnegat Bay. Returns should fill in over the next 45-60 minutes. A band is going to set up north of here within 2 hours. 2018 redux version? Got fam in Barnegat. Should of made the trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: HIGHLIGHTS... * WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. * IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. DETAILS... HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES... MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT. WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE- LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST, OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW... WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI, INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT. POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS, WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES. Feels like I've read this before: HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC 2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION. ... WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD. THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME. CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I can’t believe so many are throwing in the towel already lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Radar is filling in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Feels like I've read this before: HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC 2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION. ... WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD. THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME. CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, justinj said: I can’t believe so many are throwing in the towel already lol Im going to trust the professionals here and upton still has 7-10 for NYC. I mean this was never NYC's storm anyway but people are overreacting I think to some small shifts east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Feels like I've read this before: HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC 2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION. ... WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD. THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME. CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. this was worse for me personally 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Im going to trust the professionals here and upton still has 7-10 for NYC. I mean this was never NYC's storm anyway but people are overreacting I think to some small shifts east. I think 6-8 is still on the table for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this was worse for me personally I was just about to post that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this was worse for me personally Juno right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this was worse for me personally You don't like snow so no great loss, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this was worse for me personally That was not only a Forecasting nightmare... I still have Emergency Management nightmares from that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this was worse for me personally This was awful. Always remember being teased by that nice band that came in during the early afternoon to get us all excited but was instead followed by the epic fail later on that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Juno right Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: You don't like snow so no great loss, right? He loves a good KU 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now