JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: I guess we still have time but damn what could’ve been we were legit 2/3 hours away from an absolute bomb on the models last few days And we also could still be. The two lows is interesting but may not be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: And we also could still be. The two lows is interesting but may not be correct. If this doesn't work out as well, we will have more blue bomb opportunities in Feb and March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sne Mets think the double lows are bullcrap Find me a historical example via satellite image for a low sub 980…. doesn’t exist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18Z HRRR 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Rgem looks worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Radar does look good down by nc. Starting to get its act together 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I guess if it doesn’t work out, we can move our focus to the warm temperatures and flood risk for mid-week?. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Fwiw nam didn’t have that precip that’s down by NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So Mount Holly has upped alot of the totals. 6-8" in western Somerset County, when all I'm hearing is I'm in the screw zone. I've been telling people 3-6 or 4-8 max if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Rgem looks worse A little. It has the low as essentially strung out garbage which pivots the whole mess east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A little. It has the low as essentially strung out garbage which pivots the whole mess east. We need to hope the ocean low is wrong and the other low takes over. We would be golden if the other low disappears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: We need to hope the ocean low is wrong and the other low takes over. We would be golden if the other low disappears. “hope” aka weenie thinking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 48 minutes ago, romba said: It's getting clearer, just not how some of us want it to be.... I sort of agree and also disagree. The models all do look around the same but the gradient is so tight both SE and NW of the city that the outcome is still sort of in limbo although certainly 6-9 as upton is forecasting seems like a good call at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: “hope” aka weenie thinking. Feedback is real but in this situation, I don't think it is. I can't believe I almost pulled an all nighter last night because of the 6z Nam. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Awful trends, legit just not our winter I guess just enjoy whatever falls 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Ok I got my ticket and I’m on my way back to LI, if I get anything less than a foot this trip wasnt worth $90 Do you like wind? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 still expecting 0-20” should be able to nail it. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Awful trends, legit just not our winter I guess just enjoy whatever falls Dude what were you expecting without a negative nao ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nyc is still going to see over 6 inches I never said that it wasn't. But that is nothing compared to what's forecast to happen out east. As I said, this storm has had an east bias all week long even on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NWS a/o 3:42 pm. Based on the gloom and doom, this map must be way off 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, larrye said: I never said that it wasn't. But that is nothing compared to what's forecast to happen out east. As I said, this storm has had an east bias all week long even on the Euro. Gfs had the right idea of being east all week but it was too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rmine1 said: NWS a/o 3:42 pm. Based on the gloom and doom, this map must be way off That’s about right. The far NW could be too high but a shift of 25-30 miles which is a logical error in this range will be a big difference if you’re from nassau back to the west edge of the area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, North and West said: I guess if it doesn’t work out, we can move our focus to the warm temperatures and flood risk for mid-week? . I'll take a thaw. It's been too damn cold lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: NWS a/o 3:42 pm. Based on the gloom and doom, this map must be way off Seriously We are going to see moderate tp heavy snow with temps in the low 20s tomorrow. Enjoy it and stop complaining. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: NWS a/o 3:42 pm. Based on the gloom and doom, this map must be way off Central and eastern suffolk should be good for the 12-18. I think the NYC area is too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I am hoping for snow but to say that these models are "locked in" to any solution including this double barrel low look would IMO be a stretch. I think it's time to start looking at the radar and see where the low or lows actual are and also see where this setup phases or closes off 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs had the right idea of being east all week but it was too far east. God no. The GFS was awful with the upper levels. It also had many runs that were so far East even Boston barely got anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Upton has me at 13:1 ratio. No more Kuchera please. Kuchera up around 15:1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude what were you expecting without a negative nao ? you guys sound like you are getting 1-3. I'll gladly take 6-12. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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