KeithB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, dseagull said: Take a high level scientific statistics class, and I GUARANTEE you wouldn't be sad. Numbers are static and involve no emotion. (Mods, sorry...feel free to remove...back to the storm) This coastal is just about to get going. By 1630, moods are going to change. I happen to understand the statistics and know the odds are hundreds of millions to 1. My point is, these storms involve emotions. 6 inches on any random day is also really unlikely. How many days in a year does one get 6 inches of snow?...but these situations, and potentials of those situations are what creates a feeling of happiness or feeling one missed out for many people 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Eps anyone. Heading in NE forum moved east. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Engine is about to turn over. Still looks perfect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Yes How bad? Like cancel winter storm warning bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is a very important point here for folks NW of NYC, just saw this tweet and he makes a very good point. The models may be overdoing snowfall NW of the city, they very often miss subsidence: Yea. Im in Rockland county, and it seems to me that I am probably going to fall in the 2 to 5 inch range. I would be pretty surprised to top that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, KeithB said: I happen to understand the statistics and know the odds are hundreds of millions to 1. My point is, these storms involve emotions. 6 inches on any random day is also really unlikely. How many days in a year does one get 6 inches of snow?...but these situations, and potentials of those situations are what creates a feeling of happiness or feeling one missed out for many people Gotcha... understand... I'd be happy to have that convo in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, North and West said: I’m making meatballs tomorrow, so there’s that. . I'll be by mid afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Eps anyone. Heading in NE forum moved east. EPS is only relevant for mid-long range forecasts. Not when the storm is occurring Additionally the bust potential is to the upside. If the models are wrong about delaying the phasing/capture then the 06z Nam wins. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islandersguy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 what are the best radar sites to be looking at right now, overnight and into the afternoon tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How bad? Like cancel winter storm warning bad? No but precip shifted east . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Islandersguy said: what are the best radar sites to be looking at right now, overnight and into the afternoon tomorrow? I use this one. You can switch radars sites if needed. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-0-48 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Are you worried about subsidence on the NW fringe of precip shield? (I.E. Orange, Rockland, Passaic, Bergen)? I know many times the models underestimate the subsidence on the NW fringe. IMO we are going to see subsidence issues on the west side of the heavy banding but I’ll defer to you Yes I am. That's why amounts are so much less northwest of NYC. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No but precip shifted east . What graphics are you using and what are they derived from? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Euripides said: I use this one. You can switch radars sites if needed. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-0-48 Thank you ! Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 When do we stop looking at nam gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that. with that analysis I feel it's a good time to take a weenie nap. Gonna be a long night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Greg g said: When do we stop looking at nam gfs and euro And paying attention to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 hours ago, TheManWithNoFace said: If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands. Maybe even the Poconos? 6 inches there would be a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Greg g said: When do we stop looking at nam gfs and euro Prior to now. Everything looks great with presentation. WV loop looks even better if you want to see the beginning of tilt and (maybe) future capture. This is going to explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What ever happens happens. I like my odds where I’m at. About 3 miles nw of the William Floyd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24". I'm fine with the 10 inches this model predicts for me seems to be in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Nice radar development off the Carolinas "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." I think because we're all so close to this stuff that we take it for granted, but the fact that we have models that days and days out called for that development to start right there roughly around this time will always be impressive to me. When we talk about these models being in 'disagreement', in the big picture they are actually in pretty good agreement - they all called for a snowstorm, they're just apart by what, a few hundred miles on a planet with 200 million square miles of surface area? (had to look it up.) Been great following this one and learning. See y'all in the obs thread.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This happens with every storm, always tick east before show time. Nam is east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nam is losing the double low look and picking a path in the middle for the track of the storm... this would make the most sense lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that. Also the fv3 high res looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: This happens with every storm, always tick east before show time. Nam is east as well This is a better look to me than the last run: previous run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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