Juturna Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Time for people to jump off the ledge again. Could be bad data, initialization, the double barrel making it chase the more east low which may not even exist. It's nowcast/shortrange time and let the pieces fall where they may. The run to run swings are just not healthy lol, take a blend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: As long as the .50 qpf continues to stay up around Rockland county I feel secure this won't be a disaster. We also know there is a good chance their is an unmodeled band on the western end of the precip. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 As much as I want more snow, I will still be happy with 3-5 inches up here in Dutchess. Will be a beautiful scene. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If anything, the H5s look held back, I'm not trusting the Euro inside of 8 hours. This looks good. Gonna head out and enjoy the calm before the storm. It's going to EXPLODE . Nothing...has changed. Still on course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Juturna said: Time for people to jump off the ledge again. Could be bad data, initialization, the double barrel making it chase the more east low which may not even exist. It's nowcast/shortrange time and let the pieces fall where they may. The run to run swings are just not healthy lol, take a blend. Watch that upper low tonight and see when it closes off. The key! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Bright sunshine in Howard Beach now! LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My grandfather, Meteorologist Franco Buonvilla, always told me... "Michael, Mother Nature will do what it wants and tell my models vaffanculo. If you get lucky you will not have school and your grandmother is probably making you penne rigate" 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Like USCG said look at current OBS and Match it to the euro. Enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My morning update. I may need to lower southern New Jersey amounts pending 18Z and 00Z runs and observations/radar. Yes it's going to move to 100 miles e-se of Cape Cod per latest Euro. Moving into nowcasting mode. WX/PT For the NYC Metro Region, the National Weather Service has upgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning valid through Saturday. It will snow off and on all day today leaving a dusting to an inch of snow in spots as an arctic front passes southeastward across the region squeezing out the moisture in the atmosphere. Behind that front brutally cold north northeasterly winds will increase driving temperatures downward into the upper teens and lower 20s tonight. Meanwhile our storm is taking shape off the Florida coast as I write. It will move northward to offshore of the Carolinas tonight and from there northeastward to near Cape Cod by tomorrow afternoon. The main event gets underway tonight between 7-10PM as snow will overspread our area from south to north. It will be light at first but heavier snow bands will move into the region during the early morning hours Saturday dropping 1-2"/hour over the city and western LI and 2-4"/hour over Suffolk County where a Blizzard Warning is in effect. Winds will gust to near 60MPH during the storm causing white-outs and near blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibilities especially over eastern LI and southeastern Ct. Thundersnow possible. Snow should taper off and end around 3-5PM Saturday. Amounts expected--NW New Jersey 3-6", Just NW of NYC and interior southern NJ including Rockland and Westchester oounties 4-8", NYC five boroughs 7-11", Western LI/Nassau western coastal CT 8-14", Southern Coastal New Jersey and western Suffolk Cty 12-18", The Twin Forks/East End of LI and Southeastern Ct 16-22". If you're thinking of escaping to Boston 18-24" there. Stay Safe!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6-10 for NYC Take it lol the euro does not have the credibility it once had..it is just as erratic as the other models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: the euro does not have the credibility it once had..it is just as erratic as the other models.. Within this envelope, it isnt about the globals. The >36hr point can be debated (for any given year, statistically.) This storm looks great with presentation. Unfortunately, every product I use is lagging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This run from the RAP just now is what we need regarding the double low. It emphasizes the west low and as a result it's broader and slightly west with heavy precip (run only goes to hour 21, so a number of hours of snow left after this run), it really doesn't need a shift east or west it needs to either consolidate the lows or at least emphasize the western one and we should be in for a good surprise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the euro does not have the credibility it once had..it is just as erratic as the other models.. I wouldn't quite agree. There is more variability in all the models however the Euro had consistently indicated this storm would affect us while other models most notably the GFS did not. On one run the NAM was a complete miss. The fact that one location may get 6" instead of 9" or 11" doesn't make the model erratic. It's consistently shown the track close enough with the precipitation to be consistently affecting the same areas to a slightly greater/lesser degree. I'll take it. An accurate forecast can be made by it. The GFS? No. Add to that the fact that with a storm like this on the western side amounts drop off sharply. You got to take that into account. It's not the model, it's the nature of this kind of a storm. WX/PT 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Ill say it again - we cannot write this off, nor should any one be. We are very close to a huge hit - still. I said before this will likely come down to nowcast, and it will. And with the sharp cutoff of precipitation, a 25-50 mile wiggle will make a huge difference. Models are used for guidance, with a complex system such as this one, anything goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: As long as the .50 qpf continues to stay up around Rockland county I feel secure this won't be a disaster. We also know there is a good chance their is an unmodeled band on the western end of the precip. The most any model brings up to Rockland is 5 or 6 inches total at the very most, most are 4-5 inches. This includes all the new guidance (GFS, NAM 3K/12K, RGEM, HRDPS, CMC, Ukie, Euro, ICON). Honestly nothing has changed at all up this way since yesterday afternoon. This is an eastern Long Island and eastern New England snow blitz this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the euro does not have the credibility it once had..it is just as erratic as the other models.. Just because its solution isn't what you want? Face it, even the Euro has had an eastern solution the entire week with the highest totals on LI and in NE the further east you go. This may be a realistic trend, or it may be an anomaly or a wobble. We'll find out later. But even in prior runs, this wasn't really looking like much of a NYC and points N&W storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still has 1” liquid for my backyard and .75 in NYC which could be 9-12” with ratios, which could be a little over the 10-1. It’s disappointing but not a disaster. Hopefully it comes back west at 18 or 0z. At that point it’ll be nowcasting. I have no clue if this’ll be real or not but since models are keying on it it may be to some extent. Usually by now they’d be losing it. This double barrel/dumbbell low is broadening and somewhat shearing everything out and causing it not to close off/consolidate. The convection from the eastern dumbbell low is robbing our low of moisture as well/ruining the inflow. We obviously don’t want this sheared out whatsoever. It would be loltastic if this caused a problem for the second coastal system in a row here when I remember it being overplayed almost always before this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Everyone, enjoy a nice snowy and cold Saturday tomorrow no matter how much you get. We will be dreaming of a day like tomorrow 6 months from now when we are sweltering under high dews. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Less wind here = better ratios and hopefully power staying on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: So, when should we ditch global models and pay attention to the medium and short range models? Early evening, and not so much the models, it will be location of the low and development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Early evening, and not so much the models, it will be location of the low and development. Nowcasts replacing forecasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 21 hours ago, Eduardo said: In NYC trying to figure out if it's going to snow on Saturday like: Bump Be honest with yourselves, the model volatility is a big part of the fun and, in a setup like this, nobody knows with confidence how it's all gonna pan out. Enjoy the ride and hope for the best!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Given current OBS - Euro does not appear to be lining up. Unless I am just wishing here.. Can someone else confirm I am not crazy ? Honestly, I think Don hit the nail on the head when he showed the ++AO stats and large snowfalls. I feel like more confluence would have allowed an earlier cleaner capture. Not over but I guess the stats don't lie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: My morning update. I may need to lower southern New Jersey amounts pending 18Z and 00Z runs and observations/radar. Yes it's going to move to 100 miles e-se of Cape Cod per latest Euro. Moving into nowcasting mode. WX/PT For the NYC Metro Region, the National Weather Service has upgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning valid through Saturday. It will snow off and on all day today leaving a dusting to an inch of snow in spots as an arctic front passes southeastward across the region squeezing out the moisture in the atmosphere. Behind that front brutally cold north northeasterly winds will increase driving temperatures downward into the upper teens and lower 20s tonight. Meanwhile our storm is taking shape off the Florida coast as I write. It will move northward to offshore of the Carolinas tonight and from there northeastward to near Cape Cod by tomorrow afternoon. The main event gets underway tonight between 7-10PM as snow will overspread our area from south to north. It will be light at first but heavier snow bands will move into the region during the early morning hours Saturday dropping 1-2"/hour over the city and western LI and 2-4"/hour over Suffolk County where a Blizzard Warning is in effect. Winds will gust to near 60MPH during the storm causing white-outs and near blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibilities especially over eastern LI and southeastern Ct. Thundersnow possible. Snow should taper off and end around 3-5PM Saturday. Amounts expected--NW New Jersey 3-6", Just NW of NYC and interior southern NJ including Rockland and Westchester oounties 4-8", NYC five boroughs 7-11", Western LI/Nassau western coastal CT 8-14", Southern Coastal New Jersey and western Suffolk Cty 12-18", The Twin Forks/East End of LI and Southeastern Ct 16-22". If you're thinking of escaping to Boston 18-24" there. Stay Safe!! Are you worried about subsidence on the NW fringe of precip shield? (I.E. Orange, Rockland, Passaic, Bergen)? I know many times the models underestimate the subsidence on the NW fringe. IMO we are going to see subsidence issues on the west side of the heavy banding but I’ll defer to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 on the bright side at least we have the temps in place and aren't stressing bout the rain/snow line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Honestly, the Euro totals are pretty much in line with a lot of forecasts. I think too many people got sucked in by the 6z nam and started to expect historical totals just about everywhere when in reality, very few models were spitting out more than a foot west of Nassau. It's still a very delicate setup so at this point, it's about the mesos and nowcasting to see where the banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, NYC10023 said: on the bright side at least we have the temps in place and aren't stressing bout the rain/snow line. Yeah, enjoy the cold storm, that mix stress will arrive in Feb and March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Would warmer SSTs influence earlier close off and western low strength? A factor the models don't factor in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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