MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro is also coming in east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is also coming in east Never closes off that ULL over the Carolinas like it did on yesterday's 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is also coming in east It appears significantly so... going to have to dive into the upper levels here and see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Significant move east imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Never closes off that ULL over the Carolinas like it did on yesterday's 12z run. Doesnt phase and therefore it shoots east. Gr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Doesnt phase and therefore it shoots east. Gr. It's focusing on the eastern low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And just like that. Silence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: It's focusing on the eastern low That's baked in at this short lead time. The 2 feet-plus totals are likely off the table for everyone, except maybe the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 In keeping with this thread WTF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It doesn't mean the Euro is correct. It could be, but let's factor in other data sources 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What a roller coaster ride for NYC area with the teasing yesterday and last night of coming west to now go back east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It really isn't the track, now the qpf is being reduced by the sheered out double low look and while there was always a double low look on every run it was favoring the western one and now it's favoring the eastern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Ill say it again - we cannot write this off, nor should any one be. We are very close to a huge hit - still. I said before this will likely come down to nowcast, and it will. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Its jumping to the eastern low. Not good, been seeing that all morning. Maybe the mesos have better handle on the perplexious setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 ahh yes, just another outcome at this rate the flurries we are getting now might be our “epic” snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: It really isn't the track, now the qpf is being reduced by the sheered out double low look and while there was always a double low look on every run it was favoring the western one and now it's favoring the eastern one. Its all at H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro verbatim is still .77 qpf and higher from the city on east. There is a little wiggle room from a disaster at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Not convinced of any global shorts... This is eerily similar to the 2018 setup. Baking in the sun here on BB in ocean county, nj. Waiting for feedback result error. This system was always going to be a nowcast. Everything looks the same to me still. Going to look through and see what changed, but it still looks almost perfect for coastal and 20 mile differentials for banding. This coastal is about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, dseagull said: Not convinced of any global shorts... This is eerily similar to the 2018 setup. Baking in the sun here on BB in ocean county, nj. Waiting for feedback result error. This system was always going to be a nowcast. Everything looks the same to me still. Going to look through and see what changed, but it still looks almost perfect for coastal and 20 mile differentials for banding. This coastal is about to explode. Coastal gonna go postal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24". Given current OBS - Euro does not appear to be lining up. Unless I am just wishing here.. Can someone else confirm I am not crazy ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24". It really backed down everywhere. Even Boston is now closer to one foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Euripides said: What a roller coaster ride for NYC area with the teasing yesterday and last night of coming west to now go back east. This could be the windshield wiper affect where models over corrected West last night and now are overcorrecting East today. Hopefully that gives time for some correction back West tonight. The NAM jumped around like it always does and some people fell for it hook, line and sinker. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So, when should we ditch global models and pay attention to the medium and short range models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro verbatim is still .77 qpf and higher from the city on east. There is a little wiggle room from a disaster at least. 6-10 for NYC Take it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Remember , ratios will be higher than 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: This could be the windshield wiper affect where models over corrected West last night and now are overcorrecting East today. Hopefully that gives time for some correction back West tonight. The NAM jumped around like it always does and some people fell for it hook, line and sinker. Agree the 18z/0z runs will tell us if its trending east again or this is just overcorrecting from the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24". Yeah this Euro run really isn't showing amounts much different than we were expecting. We know that you have to go well east of the city to get a blockbuster storm. A good 7 or 8 inches for our area is still a very nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Given current OBS - Euro does not appear to be lining up. Unless I am just wishing here.. Can someone else confirm I am not crazy ? Has the trough gone neutral yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 6-10 for NYC Take it lol As long as the .50 qpf continues to stay up around Rockland county I feel secure this won't be a disaster. We also know there is a good chance their is an unmodeled band on the western end of the precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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