allgame830 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: Could you explain the implications of this if possible. Thanks in advance. a low consolidated further west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Could you explain the implications of this if possible. Thanks in advance. A low further west than depicted on models / more of a now casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The atmosphere just seems to be primed for snow. It's been snowing here all morning, you wouldn't see this kind of stuff if just a front was coming through. This reminds me of the PRE before TC landfalls. Totally is like that. Not the first time I've seen that acronym tossed around today. Long Atlantic moisture fetch being tossed north towards an aggressive frontal boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 You can now see the spin of the low forming off the Florida coast on visible satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15z RAP which just came out. I have no idea how useful it is at this range-it's usually a short range model like the HRRR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The storm chases the convection on the hour 22 NAM and splits into two lows at hour 23. Then it takes until hour 29 for the western low to take over, but it's further east and 8 MB weaker than 6z. And moves east instead of north once it does. This all likely happens because the trough shifted slightly east, which bumped the initial surface low just far enough east to where it could chase that convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 15z RAP which just came out. I have no idea how useful it is at this range-it's usually a short range model like the HRRR. This model and the HRRR are becoming more important now. You want to look for short term trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, RDRY said: The storm chases the convection on the hour 22 NAM and splits into two lows at hour 23. Then it takes until hour 29 for the western low to take over, but it's further east and 8 MB weaker than 6z. And moves east instead of north once it does. This all likely happens because the trough shifted slightly east, which bumped the initial surface low just far enough east to where it could chase that convection. Or it could be wrong. The nam has been erratic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Or it could be wrong. The nam has been erratic. All the models do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said: If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands. Yes. Will be interesting to see where the western band sits. Usually delivers goods with fronto/forcing and better ratios away from coast. Can't read snowmaps verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: All the models do that Almost every model with the classic last minute cut back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the models do that The nam has been more than the others aside from the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: All the models do that Yes true but like stated in the NE forum... we are in "grey" area now with models where we wait for the MESO models to kick in and help out with this... I think the RAP AND HRRR are becoming much more important to look at this point as well as the 3k NAM and etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The HREF: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Almost every model with the classic last minute cut back. Yep happens every time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yes true but like stated in the NE forum... we are in "grey" area now with models where we wait for the MESO models to kick in and help out with this... I think the RAP AND HRRR are becoming much more important to look at this point as well as the 3k NAM and etc. We still have until the 0z runs for more changes. It's not going to be big changes but places on the line for a decent amount of snow or alot of snow should watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What time we expecting storm to start down the shore? 10pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I see basically everything shifted east again at 12Z, at this point im honestly exhausted tracking this one. We know it will snow, how much we don't know. If it hits good it hits, if it doesn't it doesn't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Blizzard warning for Suffolk County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 UKIE looks like a bump up from 0z? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, MANDA said: Remember 83 like yesterday. LFM was east of Hatteras. Obs late morning had southeast wind at Hatteras. High DP / moisture laden air mass being rammed into cold arctic dome. Progress of snow northward was painfully slow. Took 2-3 hours to get from Staten Island to Mid-Town Manhattan. Once it started it came in like a wall. Thunder snow lasted for hours. Intense rates with large flakes. Storm was weak...made it to east of ACY and turned ene OTS. Had 21" in Bayonne and that fell mostly in a 12 hour period. Different setup than this for sure but was a classic nowcasting situation. On February 11, 1983 I remember watching the slow advance from the law library on Vesey Street. I saw the curtain of snow envelope the Verrazano. I grabbed the subway to my office on 40th street where it barely started snowing about 30 minutes later. The edge of the snow really crawled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, JBG said: On February 11, 1983 I remember watching the slow advance from the law library on Vesey Street. I saw the curtain of snow envelope the Verrazano. I grabbed the subway to my office on 40th street where it barely started snowing about 30 minutes later. The edge of the snow really crawled. I was 14 years old for that storm and I can tell you that was the craziest thundersnow I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 UKIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I see basically everything shifted east again at 12Z, at this point im honestly exhausted tracking this one. We know it will snow, how much we don't know. If it hits good it hits, if it doesn't it doesn't. Not true. Ukie, GFS shifted west and RAP... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: What time we expecting storm to start down the shore? 10pm? Would be surprised if you dont begin to see the radar blossom from south to north and begin getting event precip by 730. Atmosphere is juiced. Water vapor, radar, and mesos need to be the go to from this point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That's such a classic and gorgeous look. If this thing bombs out like the 2018 storm, the banding won't match those QPF maps, but there will be striations of jackpots. (Not just on the immediate coast.) This looks really good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I decided to ignore the 12z models after the NAM. Just went out for a glorious run in Central Park in the light snow. grass and bridle paths covered in snow. Geese gathering on the ice, on the lookout for the Bald Eagle hanging out at the Reservoir. Reset me. We'll get the snow we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 we'll probably still see jumps through the 6z runs 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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