TheManWithNoFace Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, MANDA said: Sticking pretty close to numbers I put out yesterday morning. NYC/Immediate metro: Yesterday 4-8" -> Now going 6 -10" Far NW NJ: Yesterday 1-3" -> Now going 2-4" West of I95 8" tapering to 4" starting along and north of 80 and West of 287 South and East of I95: Holding with 12-18" with the 18" amounts closest to the coast and central and eastern L.I. In general ratios 12:1 - 13:1 give or take. Maybe 15:1 northern and western edges of snow shield. Any changes will come from nowcasting as event unfolds. Currently very light snow with about .10" new snow. So you're only expecting .25qpf in Sussex/Warren co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I still think this has room to jog back West later today. The important thing was that the Southern piece ejected and got out ahead of the Northern piece which it has. We're still about 18hrs away from showtime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 NYZ078-080-282200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- 959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are likely at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Blizzard warning for central to Eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Have to keep in mind the banding features. We won't know the exact orientation/pivot until it's happening. The mesoscale mauler of Feb 2006 comes to mind, along with Boxing Day and March '18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks like suffolk county is under blizzard warning. Didn’t pull the trigger for nyc it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said: So you're only expecting .25qpf in Sussex/Warren co? Yes, especially the central to western parts of those counties. Unless changes as event starts to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My call: Eastern 2/3 of Suffolk (roughly Rt 112 on east): 16-24". If there's an area that can get over 24" it would be around the William Floyd Parkway I think. This also includes CT east of New Haven (east of I-91). There too a lucky band can get someone over 24". West of Rt 112 to around the Van Wyck Expressway in Queens, SW CT, Jersey Shore: 10-16" NYC west of the Van Wyck, along to 20mi west of I-95 in E NJ, Rockland/Westchester: 6-10" West of there to the DE River in NJ, up to I-84 in NY: 3-6" NW of there: Under 3" I may be underestimating the cutoff to the west in which case the amounts in W NJ and upstate NY would be high but it looks like initial WAA snow should help and ratios should be good. Euro would have me go a little higher in the 10-16" area, maybe 14-18" but will wait on that and iffy especially if this double barreled low crap does happen. Overall a significant event near the city to major over LI and E CT. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 RGEM looks about the exact same to me from 6z. Any changes over the last 4 runs have been noise. So no further east shift there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Add some to this since this will be more than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What is estimated start time that this goes down tonight? Contemplating buying tickets for Ranger game - can't miss Henrik retirement night. Just don't want LIRR to be a problem at 11PM tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What time is this supposed to pull out of here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just took a look at the rgem and I don't see much of a difference at all. The low ticked slightly east but it was also stronger. The precip shield looked largely unchanged. Model noise as mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I just doubt the weather models can accurately forecast the placement of the surface low or lows for this dynamic of a storm to our preferred tolerances. Classic now cast storm. It's going to snow pretty good regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Was feeling pretty locked into 12-18 down in Ocean County, wondering if that'll end up verifying. The NAM's fever dream made that appear very likely with a chance of over-performance. Regardless, hopefully ends up a good event and hoping for ticks back west to get more of you in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 can someone post a map for the NAM.... I did not see one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I just want to caution folks on aiming too high on these ratios again. I think 12:1 is a solid middle ground and reasonable right now. Just too much wind. That said, this is a clear warning criteria storm east of 287 and a monster for SNE, Suffolk and some of the jersey shore. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It moved west, it moved east...NWS still going 5-9 last I checked for my area just west of SI. Hope to do a little better, not worried about not seeing 2 feet. 10-12 would be great, pure gravy. At this point we have to let it just roll and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I just want to caution folks on aiming too high on these ratios again. I think 12:1 is a solid middle ground and reasonable right now. Just too much wind. That said, this is a clear warning criteria storm east of 287 and a monster for SNE, Suffolk and some of the jersey shore. East of what part of 287? 287 is a loop from Port Chester through Central Jersey. I’d say from the western side of 287 east we see clear warning level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 While waiting for additional model runs, some info. regarding snowstorms with an AO+/PNA+ pattern. The 500 mb pattern over the U.S. is similar to that of January 26, 2015 leading up to a storm that brought 24.6" snow to Boston, 10.7” to JFK, 11.0”, to LGA and 9.8" to NYC. There were widespread 12”-20” amounts in Suffolk County. The synoptic evolution and details will drive the outcomes for the upcoming storm. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: It moved west, it moved east...NWS still going 5-9 last I checked for my area just west of SI. Hope to do a little better, not worried about not seeing 2 feet. 10-12 would be great, pure gravy. At this point we have to let it just roll and see what happens. I like where you sit in this setup. You've done well on some of these tight gradient coastals over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Regarding last minute shifts, I always think about Feb '83 and Feb '89, and how each ultimately played out. - Feb '83 leaving for school that morning the forecast was mostly out to sea, maybe 2-5 . By 3PM with 6" down, NWS (remember the awesome TWC red scroll and even more awesome red background screen?) was still saying only 8-10. Ended up with 16 by me. - Feb '89 leaving for school we were expecting to be crushed. Ended up with not a flake, w/Montauk & AC getting crushed. If this board existed back then, would I have known the real score heading out the door that morning, i.e. was it already really apparent in the morning and TV/radio hadn't caught up yet? How does that compare to today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While waiting for additional model runs, some info. regarding snowstorms with an AO+/PNA+ pattern. The 500 mb pattern over the U.S. is similar to that of January 26, 2015 leading up to a storm that brought 24.6" snow to Boston, 10.7” to JFK, 11.0”, to LGA and 9.8" to NYC. There were widespread 12”-20” amounts in Suffolk County. The synoptic evolution and details will drive the outcomes for the upcoming storm. Thanks as always Don. I think 1/27/15 has been the top analog to this storm for a while now. Very similar evolution by the looks of it. Maybe we can luck out and nudge the action a little west of where that ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said: I like where you sit in this setup. You've done well on some of these tight gradient coastals over the years. Only on one, Boxing Day. The other ones have been mostly disappointing, but not disastrous. Boxing Day we were in the thick of it, but that wasn't a New England special. 3-6 is still on the table, but we hope to do better than that. A trip to the parking lot, which is as far as I made it, this morning at the market showed clear pandemonium. Not worth it, so I left. There is, after all, a pandemic going on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Regarding last minute shifts, I always think about Feb '83 and Feb '89, and how each ultimately played out. - Feb '83 leaving for school that morning the forecast was mostly out to sea, maybe 2-5 . By 3PM with 6" down, NWS (remember the awesome TWC red scroll and even more awesome red background screen?) was still saying only 8-10. Ended up with 16 by me. - Feb '89 leaving for school we were expecting to be crushed. Ended up with not a flake, w/Montauk & AC getting crushed. If this board existed back then, would I have known the real score heading out the door that morning, i.e. was it already really apparent in the morning and TV/radio hadn't caught up yet? How does that compare to today? my favorite snowstorm of all time because it was my first real biggie. I did experience the one in 78. This one they talked about days before, almost a week, and were hyping it but then as we got about 24 hours to the event they started to drop totals and yeah they were saying 1-3/2-4. We all went off to school and I remember the snow starting in the morning sometime and it was already past the time they would call the half day. But it was a quick call for early dismissal immediately within the hour. Remember the big flakes that day the numbers kept going and going up...3-6, 4-8, 6-10, 10-14, 12-18 and then finally 18-24. My first experience with Thundersnow. I think we had 23 IMBY, it was insane to experience that and it would be until Jan 1996 I would experience something that topped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thanks as always Don. I think 1/27/15 has been the top analog to this storm for a while now. Very similar evolution by the looks of it. Maybe we can luck out and nudge the action a little west of where that ended up. I agree. FWIW, below are Suffolk County's amounts from that storm: ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ORIENT 30.0 807 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHAMPTON 29.0 615 PM 1/27 PUBLIC MATTITUCK 26.9 404 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER MEDFORD 25.6 100 PM 1/27 PUBLIC ISLIP AIRPORT 24.9 100 PM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER NORTH PATCHOGUE 24.1 1235 PM 1/27 PUBLIC WEST BABYLON 24.0 600 PM 1/27 PUBLIC OAKDALE 23.5 120 PM 1/27 PUBLIC MILLER PLACE 22.0 130 PM 1/27 PUBLIC FLANDERS 22.0 204 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON STATI 22.0 600 PM 1/27 PUBLIC LINDENHURST 21.6 530 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FARMINGVILLE 21.5 330 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER HOLBROOK 21.5 100 PM 1/27 PUBLIC EAST NORTHPORT 21.0 715 PM 1/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 21.0 413 PM 1/27 PUBLIC COMMACK 20.0 1030 AM 1/27 PUBLIC DEER PARK 20.0 1230 PM 1/27 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 20.0 1240 PM 1/27 PUBLIC UPTON 17.1 100 PM 1/27 NWS OFFICE BAY SHORE 16.5 1110 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER TERRYVILLE 16.5 1202 PM 1/27 PUBLIC ST. JAMES 16.0 1100 AM 1/27 PUBLIC YAPHANK 15.7 220 PM 1/27 PUBLIC LAKE RONKONKOMA 14.0 1120 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER OLD FIELD 9.2 212 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thanks as always Don. I think 1/27/15 has been the top analog to this storm for a while now. Very similar evolution by the looks of it. Maybe we can luck out and nudge the action a little west of where that ended up. This one though was never supposed to deliver much to a large part of the metro area west of the city; the 2015 one was expected to until the last second. And that could still happen, a bust west. Hope not. Just looked a little better for us last night over here. Still hoping for a decent event. Storms like Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 still managed to give us a good slap. Was hoping for a little better than that. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If I get Juno’d again I’m gonna have to think hard about whether this is a hobby I want to continue in my life lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Almost time to use the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Page SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Honestly I'm having some PTSD for you guys of past last minute busts. Hopefully last nights runs verify. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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