greenmtnwx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAMs gonna be slightly east. West trend at least stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Reverse psychology works that's a triple bun for you 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Reverse psychology works Theres a banter thread for that nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The models for the week+ continue to show a hard cut-off by me. The 700 map shows some incredible forcing; to the west of that should be some good sucker hole. I expect to be in the subsidence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Before everyone panics the NAM is still a big hit. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Before everyone panics the NAM is still a big hit. Yes but it is considerably east and cut back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Surprised no one out on Long Island has mentioned the SREF plumes, the median on central LI is 23 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Double barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Yes but it is considerably east and cut back. It was a western outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It was a western outlier Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Double barrel. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Double barrel slippage to the east takes it from run of the mill foot of snow to something more epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The double barrel may or may not be accurate here. It may be a nowcast situation with that. But of course we’d want as little of that as possible so the low can consolidate west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Double barrel slippage to the east takes it from run of the mill foot of snow to something more epic. Hopefully that's wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nam was an outlier. No other models had that much snow. Still on track for the coast for 6+ with more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Double barrel. It's showed up on enough different models on several different runs so it is a concern. especially for those of us to the N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Yeah, not sure about the double barrel thing. We may not know how that plays out until it's happening. Could be real. Eps had some of those. But also a lot that didn't. That's challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 heartbreaker (if you were hoping for continued westward trend) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam was an outlier. No other models had that much snow. Still on track for the coast for 6+ with more to the east. Come on dude, don’t play that game. It was a big disappointment, significantly reversed trends to more run of the mill. You get 6” of snow you’ll be bitterly disappointed. You’ve locked in on 18+ In your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Take the psychology shit to banter please. Thx. 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, not sure about the double barrel thing. We may not know how that plays out until it's happening. Could be real. Eps had some of those. But also a lot that didn't. That's challenging. Just a bit of a sloppier phase. The cleaner the phase, the more tucked this will be. A 3 hr (or less) difference is the difference of about 50-75 miles. We are not going to know that until game time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The double barrel look is likely showing up because the models are trying to resolve the capture. The lows wants to go NE but the capture would tuck it NW so you get solutions that show both. But this is why you should temper your expectations. Don't expect 20" of snow, aim low and if you do get more than you expect it'll be a nice surprise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It went with the double low look - that's the difference. If the double low look gets resolved and becomes one expect a lot of surprised people come Saturday night. If this is the actual look then we end up with a nice storm, but nothing crazy like the previous 2 NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing. Predictable. The Nam always has one insane run then corrects towards the other guidance. I expect the same from the GFS in the other direction as we near consensus. It almost always happens leading up to these big storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Just a bit of a sloppier phase. The cleaner the phase, the more tucked this will be. A 3 hr (or less) difference is the difference of about 50-75 miles. We are not going to know that until game time. Yeah, agree with that. Noticed the same on some of these runs. It was a hair away from doing that anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Come on dude, don’t play that game. It was a big disappointment, significantly reversed trends to more run of the mill. You get 6” of snow you’ll be bitterly disappointed. You’ve locked in on 18+ In your mind. What ? I have said many times I am fine with 6+ here. What other models show the huge numbers the Nam showed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup... 6z run had 1 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, hooralph said: heartbreaker (if you were hoping for continued westward trend) It’s one run. This is gonna come down to nowcast. Someone will be in for a big disappointment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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