nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I don’t see how it these trends keep up that upton don’t hoist blizzard warnings by the afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I highly doubt that happens in this situation. This isn't a normal noreaster setup. It's being ingested into the northern stream. So it's maxing out on closest approach. When that happens, the rain snow line is pinned next to the low. But it also helps energize the system. Hence the high potential. We would just get smoked out here by a coastal front while further west got mid level dynamics. Yep. The one concern may be the dry slot getting close to eastern areas/the forks of the west trend continues. But mostly it’ll be about subsidence and heavy snow with the bands. There’ll be lucky and unlucky people as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 43 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Some of the models showed that light snow starting, may not really stop. Just get heavier later. That could be possible and is a hallmark of the larger events too. It's why PDII was my favourite event. Around 24 hours of light to moderate then about 12-15 hours of moderate to heavy. Long duration storms are always the best. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'll turn you into a NAM believer yet. It does the best when it counts the most, it's the definition of a clutch hitter. 2016 nam gave a lesson to all models why cant it happen again.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, RDRY said: NAM's fun, but no real support for jackpotting NYC. Only thing I'll say is Euro keeps trending towards the NAM each run. Euro 6z now looks like NAM 0z (the run that got us weenies pumped) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: I don’t see how it these trends keep up that upton don’t hoist blizzard warnings by the afternoon NYC is still only progged for up to a foot and less to the west, but the winds may prompt a warning. Haven't checked Mt. Holly ( I'm on the cusp of both ) but because they encompass the Jersey shore it seems likely they will post something. I'll take the 8-12 if it happens over here in eastern Middlesex county if it happens and be happy with it, though we often underperform. Seriously, more than a foot is more than I need....the 18 inches last year was tough enough to deal with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: NYC is still only progged for up to a foot and less to the west, but the winds may prompt a warning. Haven't checked Mt. Holly ( I'm on the cusp of both ) but because they encompass the Jersey shore it seems likely they will post something. I'll take the 8-12 if it happens over here in eastern Middlesex county if it happens and be happy with it, though we often underperform. Seriously, more than a foot is more than I need....the 18 inches last year was tough enough to deal with. We have a blizzard warning in Ocean County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It seems irrational, but I feel like we are either going to get about 8" or 28" here in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, nycsnow said: I don’t see how it these trends keep up that upton don’t hoist blizzard warnings by the afternoon They said they were waiting for one more model round for consistency to do blizz warnings. " In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzardh eadlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the area that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday afternoon with this system." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: We have a blizzard warning in Ocean County. I see that now. Monmouth too. I'm just north. Minor details at this point; I'm close enough to the bay here in Woodbridge to see some wind, we're just not getting the two feet of snow. Official forecast is 4-7 from Upton, 4-11 from Mt Holly. Seems like a big spread there.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. The one concern may be the dry slot getting close to eastern areas/the forks of the west trend continues. But mostly it’ll be about subsidence and heavy snow with the bands. There’ll be lucky and unlucky people as always. Exactly. This is going to be an amazing experience either way for me. It's not often something like this comes around. I hope everyone gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Using 12-1 ratios because the wind is gonna beat up these dendrites. 10+ island and much of coastal NJ and coastal CT seems fair. It's that sharp gradient keeping me up right now. I'd love this to tuck 20 miles further west just to make this a bit more straightforward 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NittanyWx said: Using 12-1 ratios because the wind is gonna beat up these dendrites. 10+ island and much of coastal NJ and coastal CT seems fair. It's that sharp gradient keeping me up right now. I'd love this to tuck 20 miles further west just to make this a bit more straightforward Where are you expecting that gradient to set up? Warren or Sussex? Or even further south? Some maps show Somerset county....parts of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Next Nam run is at 8:30 or 9:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Using 12-1 ratios because the wind is gonna beat up these dendrites. 10+ island and much of coastal NJ and coastal CT seems fair. It's that sharp gradient keeping me up right now. I'd love this to tuck 20 miles further west just to make this a bit more straightforward That's if this doesn't come more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Next Nam run is at 8:30 or 9:30? 845 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: That's if this doesn't come more west Same issue with the dendrites getting beat up. Perhaps even more so. You'll just have way more liquid to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Where are you expecting that gradient to set up? Warren or Sussex? Or even further south? Some maps show Somerset county....parts of it... I dont know yet, but my instinct says I can't totally toss out a gradient line starting at just west of 287 in Jersey yet. This is a very tough forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Not sure what to look at to determine this so I'll defer to the knowledgeable posters ...what are the chances of some thunder snow with this system on LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: 845 If it holds serve I have a feeling we might start to see some of the other models start to follow suite and reduce the double barrel look and go a bit more west like the Nam. Would make a huge difference for city and N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NittanyWx said: I dont know yet, but my instinct says I can't totally toss out a gradient line starting at just west of 287 in Jersey yet. This is a very tough forecast. Wherever that gradient starts is going a long way to settling what happens for those of us far N&W. I’m not completely committing to just a 1-3 forecast here just yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sref ticked west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Sref ticked west 1.25-1.5 over nyc nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 SREF was more than tick I’d say...would bring 10-12” to the delaware 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 dusting in scarsdale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nam rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 @North and West I think 4-6/6-8 for Morris County, lower totals out my way. Plowable likely. I have .25” now, with light snow. I’ll be honest that I didn’t see this morning snizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nammy looks a hair more amped then 06z early on. Let's see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 [mention=15837]North and West[/mention] I think 4-6/6-8 for Morris County, lower totals out my way. Plowable likely. I have .25” now, with light snow. I’ll be honest that I didn’t see this morning snizzle. Thanks. It’s been snowing here conversationally most of the morning.Interesting to see where this sets up. Wonder if the cut off is over me, or you, or maybe further west.Though I will say this, and it’s my anecdotal evidence for 35+ years of watching this: every - and I mean every - single big winter storm would creep up the numbers continuously. Always. And forever.This one’s doing the same, but I still don’t trust it with the +NAO and +AO… though the NAO is falling closer to neutral, so maybe that’s helped nudge it west.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Good morning!! Reverse psychology works 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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