kingbaus Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Haven't been this nervous for a storm in years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Still a spread just like the gefs As far as the eps is concerned. Yes, There's still some spread. I just looked at them. But it's a little misleading on the loop I posted. Because some have the dual low. But many of them don't as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Will all melt this week 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I've seen this play out many times in my experience on the eve of big storms. The Nam has that one bonkers run that you cut the totals in half to get a true depiction and will correct itself by 12z while the rgem and GFS are too conservative and will usually correct itself upwards by 12z. As usual, blend them all and I think a good forecast is 4-8+ well north and west, 8-12+ for NYC and immediate burbs, 12-18+ for Nassau, 18+ for Suffolk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Will all melt this week Quick warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I've seen this play put many times in my experience on the eve of big storms. The Nam has that one bonkers run that you cut the totals in half to get a true depiction and will correct itself by 12z while the rgem and GFS are too conservative and will usually correct itself upwards by 12z. As usual, blend them all and I think a good forecast is 4-8+ well north and west, 8-12+ for NYC and immediate burbs, 12-18+ for Nassau, 18+ for Suffolk. Agree Banding in these storms usually end up further northwest than modeled. Have to watch out for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Who cares if it's going to melt? Just have it happen lol. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Have ya seen the regular Nam? NYC and NJ disappear for years under those totals. Exaggerate much it's not The Day After Tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It will be snowing all day ( snow showers ) but the storm will not be here until overnight tonight. thanks Ant see you guys on here in 5 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Who's got 6z euro I'm hearing it's going a tic west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nightknights said: Exaggerate much it's not The Day After Tomorrow It's called levity. Try it ya weirdo. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snowing here with 1 mile visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Who's got 6z euro I'm hearing it's going a tic west. Here and yes it did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anyone have a start time for ANY snow that I should be concerned about as I am driving home from Western NY soon and its a 5 hour drive--Thanks in Advance Take 90 to 87 rather than 390 and 17. Stay out of the hills and on the big roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Tick tick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Obs thread started as snow is starting in C/W NJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro has the trough a touch more negative tilt than the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Man the euro an nam are pretty locked in. This might trend all the way till later tonight. This is gonna be insane!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Was hoping for more but at least it went west. That's the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, nightknights said: Exaggerate much it's not The Day After Tomorrow It’s actually the day after yesterday. The day after tomorrow is Sunday and the storm would have passed. Smiles 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tick tick Still with that huge cutoff Someone is going to get screwed with this…the question is who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The inch of precip line on the Euro is now touching NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Is that a 7.3” hourly rate I see here for Nantucket?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: The inch of precip line on the Euro is now touching NYC. this snow map now looks like the 12z NAM run that got everybody excited. In fact I believe it's slightly more. Nam reduced the double low look on 6z and we got the jackpot over NYC... hopefully the Euro keeps correcting towards the NAM from here on out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Who cares if it's going to melt? Just have it happen lol. Agree, it’s got to happen first. But i think it’s fair to make longevity of the snow part of the conversation. Would be nice if the snow sticks around for more time than we spent tracking the storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2" Liquid equivalent in Suffolk. At least 1" to the city. LFG. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Still with that huge cutoff Someone is going to get screwed with this…the question is who? I am in the screw zone and expect to be on the west side of the gradient. In any case this is what it looks like out here at the current time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: this snow map now looks like the 12z NAM run that got everybody excited. In fact I believe it's slightly more. Nam reduced the double low look on 6z and we got the jackpot over NYC... hopefully the Euro keeps correcting towards the NAM from here on out. Euro still has an elongated low. If that's wrong then these totals will go up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 2" Liquid equivalent in Suffolk. At least 1" to the city. LFG. I'm east of Manhattan 12+ for us on this run It's also better for inland areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wow at the Euro. Continues to tick slightly better evolution aloft. Looks very close to the Nam last night (not the probably overdone 6z). That would suggest 18” amounts are possible even in Nassau County and 12” to Manhattan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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