nycwinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Probably just Suffolk. All of Suffolk is locked in for 12+ on all models now. Nassau still on the bubble you do not need prodigious snow totals to qualify for a blizzard.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. Sorry for loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: you dont need 12+ for a Blizzard Warning. Technically speaking, JFK experiences some of the highest wind gusts on the island. But besides that, I've seen most models depicting around 10 inches or so for JFK, there's a gradient between Central Park and JFK just like there was in December 2009 (where NYC had 10 inches and JFK had 15 inches.) Just now, nycwinter said: you do not need prodigious snow totals to qualify for a blizzard.. You need the heavy snow rates and strong winds...8" of snow falling over 18 hours wont get you 1/4 mile visibility. The heavy snow bands are still modeled to cut off at the suffolk nassau border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 You can have a blizzard not in a storm... just from blowing snow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: You need the heavy snow rates and strong winds...8" of snow falling over 18 hours wont get you 1/4 mile visibility. The heavy snow bands are still modeled to cut off at the suffolk nassau border. 8" with blowing and drifting of snow actually will. I have seen blizzard warnings for 2-4" of snow. Once for 1-3". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: You need the heavy snow rates and strong winds...8" of snow falling over 18 hours wont get you 1/4 mile visibility. The heavy snow bands are still modeled to cut off at the suffolk nassau border. Euro, Nam, RGEM, CMC... all have decent chunk more than 8 inches falling in nassau county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Ive asked a few times the past couple days where he is... i hope hes ok... I do too. He's been offline 24 hours, which normally isn't a long time. Hope he and family are ok and we are just being noodges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It can be blue skys and still be in a blizzard... some folks dont understand.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Blizzardo said: It can be blue skys and still be in a blizzard... some folks dont understand.. True... lots of blizzard warnings in the upper midwest and great plains happen without snow falling from the sky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Maybe one of the mods can email Walt and check in? ?? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Im assuming some people may see whiteout conditions with the heavy snow bands and blowing snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Im assuming some people may see whiteout conditions with the heavy snow bands and blowing snow. Ive been in white out conditions just from heavy snow. That will happen here but where is the question .. forget the wind... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nassau and Suffolk would be my guess but it wouldn't shock me if it were just Suffolk. Rjay Holbrook will be a good location for this storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Euro, Nam, RGEM, CMC... all have decent chunk more than 8 inches falling in nassau county. GFS also should have shown considerably more than it did given how it has 2 closed 500mb low contours SE of Long Island. I think that would be a foot easy from NYC east. I think the whole Island should be good for 12+. NYC is on the bubble, I'd say 8-12" there-8" Bronx 12" Rockaway. Still need another west push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, justinj said: Rjay Holbrook will be a good location for this storm I'd be pretty stunned if there aren't 20"+ amounts out there. Prime area is probably Rt 112 to near Riverhead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: I'd be pretty stunned if there aren't 20"+ amounts out there. Prime area is probably Rt 112 to near Riverhead. I’m in middle island 2-3 miles east of 112. Looking forward to this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro starting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 hours ago, RU848789 said: @wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know: does anyone know whether the NWS uses ratios (Kuchera or other) in constructing their snowfall maps or if they just use 10:1? With the latest NWS-Philly maps being so bullish, it makes me think they're factoring in something like 15:1 ratios, so 8-12" of 10:1 snow becomes 12-18" at 15:1, for the immediate coast, for example. Thanks! One more try: @wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know? Anyone? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro starting Head west young man, head west! (Just a little) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, justinj said: I’m in middle island 2-3 miles east of 112. Looking forward to this one! I would be too if I was you (I'm looking forward to it also but my odds are still a little less than yours IMO). You have a really good chance at seeing 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I’m nervous… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: I would be too if I was you (I'm looking forward to it also but my odds are still a little less than yours IMO). You have a really good chance at seeing 20". Your area (nw suffolk) usually does some of the best totals in any storm. Seems those bands always setup over smithtown/commack/Huntington/northport. My turn now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 someone smack Rjay with the weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 46 minutes ago, Rjay said: A little excited for my incoming blizzard warning. It's nice when the phones go crazy, you know shit about to be lit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, justinj said: Your area (nw suffolk) usually does some of the best totals in any storm. Seems those bands always setup over smithtown/commack/Huntington/northport. My turn now Who knows what'll happen. I'm sure there will be some kind of surprise with this. Often the west edge of the heavy QPF has a heavy deformation band. If I get 12-15" I'll be beyond happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 someone do euro pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, David-LI said: someone do euro pbp Better, less double barrel focus and it mainly chooses the left LP path. Precip field as depicted on pivot seems smaller, but the intense stuff goes out further, I.e I think a sharper cutoff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Long Island disappears in a cloud of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Heavier precip into central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It drops 17mb in like 7 hrs lol. Truly a bomb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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