Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Cant read it.. my close up vision is gone...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: Cant read it.. my close up vision is gone...lol Looks good, similar to what it seemed to have at 18z. 1" liquid starting around NYC maybe, no huge death band shown though unlike the NAM/Euro it seems. Similar to RGEM which shows a larger 12" or so area rather than the death band 30" stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs shifted much further west Look at the members getting tucked in. By tucked in I thought you meant they were hitting the Jersey shore lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: So bad lol I swear the supercomputer that runs it is just playing games with us. It's doing the digital version of throwing darts at a dartboard and just giving us the randomized results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks good, similar to what it seemed to have at 18z. 1" liquid starting around NYC maybe, no huge death band shown though unlike the NAM/Euro it seems. Similar to RGEM which shows a larger 12" or so area rather than the death band 30" stuff. Yep looks pretty much the same totals are a little better, but I feel like with a 970 low and plenty of cold air the output in real time will be higher, time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks good, similar to what it seemed to have at 18z. 1" liquid starting around NYC maybe, no huge death band shown though unlike the NAM/Euro it seems. Similar to RGEM which shows a larger 12" or so area rather than the death band 30" stuff. There will be a death band.. now from my experience in these theres only 2 spots they set up... over NE jersey or over LI somewhere... but where that happens... oh boy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Blizzardo said: There will be a death band.. now from my experience in these theres only 2 spots they set up... over NE jersey or over LI somewhere... but where that happens... oh boy! Or over Sayreville, NJ like for Boxing Day 2010 lol. I'd still say the best chance for it is central/eastern Suffolk County but there'll be plenty of heavy snow west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Here's your 970mb (when it's up in NE though) 979 mb east of southern NJ so still pretty strong when we are getting its worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'd like to see the Euro give us one last treat and get rid of the double barrel low before I go to bed lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Yep looks pretty much the same totals are a little better, but I feel like with a 970 low and plenty of cold air the output in real time will be higher, time will tell! I'm not sure how much the strength of the storm has to do with our snowfall amounts, it seems the stronger the storm the more banding there is, but our heaviest longest duration snowfalls seem to be from weaker storms that throw moisture over arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jt17 said: I'd like to see the Euro give us one last treat and get rid of the double barrel low before I go to bed lol Cmc has 2 lows down south. Get rid of the east low and bam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Or over Sayreville, NJ like for Boxing Day 2010 lol. I'd still say the best chance for it is central/eastern Suffolk County but there'll be plenty of heavy snow west of it. I was in Bloomfield for that storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Lol, it was a completely miss in the morning on the RAP. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: By tucked in I thought you meant they were hitting the Jersey shore lol Yeah it's all relative. No model runs have been tucked. Even the furthest NW ens member isn't really tucked (well maybe one or two EPS members over the past several runs). This is an offshore low. Fortunately the mid level lows get going early enough and the trof takes on a significant enough tilt to wrap moisture and lift mechanisms pretty far west of the SLP. That's a good thing for most of the coastal plane since it keeps everyone snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I wonder how far west the Ukie comes. It's been a bit of a yo-yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way out of its range but entertaining at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, eduggs said: Yeah it's all relative. No model runs have been tucked. Even the furthest NW ens member isn't really tucked (well maybe one or two EPS members over the past several runs). This is an offshore low. Fortunately the mid level lows get going early enough and the trof takes on a significant enough tilt to wrap moisture and lift mechanisms pretty far west of the SLP. That's a good thing for most of the coastal plane since it keeps everyone snow. "Tucked" is such an ambiguous term. Tucked into the Jersey shore vs tucked in south of Montauk creates 2 total different outcomes in a storm (as you're well aware of). The Euro and some of the eps members were tucked south of LI a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: I wonder how far west the Ukie comes. It's been a bit of a yo-yo. A bit? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's just the snow map from the Nam... you can't fool me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: UKIE on an island by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I bit too far out for NYC... imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sorry was still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I guess it did come west a bit, keeping our all good trends streak alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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