HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Where are the people stating the GFS was leading the way on this? It folded like a cheap suit. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Really makes me more confident in my theory that the last month was just a weather pattern which played to the GFS biases rather than the GFS being a better model. Metsfan's right. Miller A's (which this storm is more of than miller B ) aren't the GFS strong suit. It seems to do better with storms dominated by the northern stream which the Euro can struggle with. And GFS was very close to being considerably better. It had the stupid double low which stole a little and dragged the storm east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Does it ever get old being this bad? just a few days ago some were saying the gfs has been the best model this winter.. lately the gfs has been bad with a few storms.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 closed upper low bingo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I’m awaiting the mix, dry slot(she said) next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Does it ever get old being this bad? Just as bad is the guy saying the 18z nam confirmed a non event N and W of NYC. Both trolls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think its apparent at this time that when the double barrel shows up, the west low is the show... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Metsfan's right. Miller A's (which this storm is more of than miller B ) aren't the GFS strong suit. It seems to do better with storms dominated by the northern stream which the Euro can struggle with. And GFS was very close to being considerably better. It had the stupid double low which stole a little and dragged the storm east. We have seen time and time again the gfs struggle with coastal storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, keno19 said: closed upper low bingo Yeah if that happens we won't have to worry at all from the city on east about picking up totals over and possibly well over a foot. That's a thing of beauty. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Metsfan's right. Miller A's (which this storm is more of than miller B ) aren't the GFS strong suit. It seems to do better with storms dominated by the northern stream which the Euro can struggle with. And GFS was very close to being considerably better. It had the stupid double low which stole a little and dragged the storm east. This seems to be a pattern with the double low error. I remember this happened with a few of our other big ones too. Isn't there a way to fix models on the fly? In other fields, when a simulation has an error we rerun the simulation after the event occurs and change the model to make a better prediction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What is stopping this from going more west ? We don't have blocking or a kicker. Sharpness of the Ridge out West and consequently, orientation of the trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: I’m awaiting the mix, dry slot(she said) next There won't be any problems with the dry slot or mix for us. MAYBE for out by Montauk if the west trend really does continue. Our issue would be subsidence zones between bands which can't be forecast now. I can definitely understand Forky beginning to get excited. Boxing Day 2010 was supposed to be a LI focused storm too and it buried E NJ. I don't see how this has to stop going west here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Sharpness of the Ridge out West and consequently, orientation of the trough. This won't go hugely further west, we're probably near the limit or within 30-40 miles but to me it's just the maps catching up to the potential that's been here all along finally. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think from hours 33-42 while it's struggling with the double barrel low look we're being wiped of what could be a decent amount of QPF to the west. If the west low is consolidated the whole time we get something like... the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There won't be any problems with the dry slot or mix for us. MAYBE for out by Montauk if the west trend really does continue. Our issue would be subsidence zones between bands which can't be forecast now. I can definitely understand Forky beginning to get excited. Boxing Day 2010 was supposed to be a LI focused storm too and it buried E NJ. I don't see how this has to stop going west here. Yeah Boxing Day was a great storm but we honestly expected it to be more here. Monmouth County got the best snows in that one. South shore of Nassau county seems to be a common spot for subsidence zones unfortunately. For whatever reason it seems to jackpot in high end el ninos but otherwise we usually max out under or right around 20 inches. I'm looking through the list of all 20 inch storms at JFK and most are in el ninos outside of the Feb 1961 storm and of course Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 lee goldberg has the city in the 6-12 inch range now and most of long island in the 12-24 inch range...especially eastern long island.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, nycwinter said: lee goldberg has the city in the 6-12 inch range now and most of long island in the 12-24 inch range...especially eastern long island.. Lee and Greg both upped totals to 6-10 6-12 into NJ. I seen them both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0312Z FRI JAN 28 2022 The 00Z GFS has started and is running on time. In addition to the usual complement of global raobs, 39 dropsondes were available courtesy of a USAF winter storm recon mission in the Western Atlantic and a NOAA mission over the Pacific. Handel/SDM/NCO/NCEP SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0206Z FRI JAN 28 2022 The 00Z NCEP model production is running on time. Observations available for NAM ingest included 11 Alaskan, 28 Canadian, 69 CONUS, 13 Mexican, 6 Caribbean, and 9 Pacific raobs. There were also 9 winter storm recon dropsondes courtesy of the USAF over the Western Atlantic and NOAA mission over the Pacific. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 70326/AKN - No report 70414/SYA - No report 72215/FFC - No report 76743/VHA - No report...10150 70361/YAK - 10142 78384/GCM - 10142 72662/UNR - Short to 908 mb Handel/SDM/NCO/NCEP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Gefs shifted much further west Look at the members getting tucked in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yeah Boxing Day was a great storm but we honestly expected it to be more here. Monmouth County got the best snows in that one. South shore of Nassau county seems to be a common spot for subsidence zones unfortunately. For whatever reason it seems to jackpot in high end el ninos but otherwise we usually max out under or right around 20 inches. I'm looking through the list of all 20 inch storms at JFK and most are in el ninos outside of the Feb 1961 storm and of course Jan 1996. Wasn't the Lindsey Storm 1969 a big Nassau County Miller B storm? 2/8/13 would have been substantially better had 1/3 or more of the storm not been wasted with rain/sleet in Long Beach. I can't get on board with crazy 20+ amounts yet for us but I'm becoming more confident we'll get past 12". GFS should have been better with that upper air chart. There's really only upside when you see two closed 500mb contours just SE of you. Rolling the dice here but I may be coming to Long Beach for this one. For all out blizzard conditions it would be a great place to hang out even if snow totals are a little less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Gefs shifted much further west Look at the members getting tucked in. So bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: CMC? Held par. Double Barrel low. 970ish just inside BM. Lower numbers though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: Held par. Double Barrel low. 970ish just inside BM. Lower numbers though 970 inside BM is a bomb for NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And not a small bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: 970 inside BM is a bomb for NYC 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: 970 inside BM is a bomb for NYC Here's your 970mb (when it's up in NE though) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Held par. Double Barrel low. 970ish just inside BM. Lower numbers though How so? 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: And not a small bomb... sounds like higher numbers lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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