HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For Boston or anywhere I’d just say “chance at a significant coastal storm for Saturday” and not mention precip types. Still a few days before worrying about rain or snow. Euro is a very nice solution but gets going a hair too late for the huge totals in our area. It might be holding back a little too much energy in the SW which might mean it gets going faster. Agree I like the general a significant coastal storm is possible take at this point. It's hard to not get excited but I know this could trend the other way still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: It's more about it's track then it getting going too late, but as others have said, it's in a good spot, especially since the Euro tends to trend west late in the game. A faster deepening of the low than what is shown on the euro would benefit our area immensely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just commentating after seeing Euro. Unless there's a massive regime change next day or so it seems likely we phase. In almost every instance when this occurred the storm ticked west and/or got going faster which caused a west tick (see our last big inland cutter). Having that extra wiggle room provided by the GFS/Euro is a very good thing right now. A bullseye this far out usually means we mix/changeover as storm eventually shifts too far west. This is especially true given we don't have a true -NAO block in place. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I wouldn't hate on that euro run as is in the city proper. Don't go by the clown maps. You had a solid 700mb look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Agree I like the general a significant coastal storm is possible take at this point. It's hard to not get excited but I know this could trend the other way still. The storm itself is likely due to the agreement on the models at this point but the track is anyone’s guess. The Euro was a very slight change from being even more of a bomb for our area. But it easily could be too much of a good thing and it phases early/tries to hug the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I wouldn't hate on that euro run as is in the city proper. Don't go by the clown maps. You had a solid 700mb look there. So that must be why it gave 11 inches to NYC even with a low that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The storm itself is likely due to the agreement on the models at this point but the track is anyone’s guess. The Euro was a very slight change from being even more of a bomb for our area. But it easily could be too much of a good thing and it phases early/tries to hug the coast. Yea probably anywhere from a Catskills jackpot to a Nantucket jackpot is still on the table at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Still a long time to go. I'll tell you what though. If we were to blend all of this operational guidance right now. That's a pretty darn good look for this subforum as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Anyone have a good rationale how this storm could develop a warm core as depicted by the EURO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: So that must be why it gave 11 inches to NYC even with a low that far east. Deformation axis runs from NYC area through central New England. It develops well aloft so it can transport snow a good bit west of the track. It would be high ratio snow too. It’s not stunted like the UK has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Anyone have a good rationale how this storm could develop a warm core as depicted by the EURO? Warm seclusion. It's common in mature oceanic storms when the bent-back warm front wraps around the center. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Come to daddy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12z EPS starting to tighten up a little bit. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, hooralph said: Come to daddy Yea you can see the southwest bend in the precip tilt a lot further south this run, I'd imagine that would bend even further SW if the low bombed out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The Euro control just spat out 2 feet for most of the subforum. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z EPS starting to tighten up a little bit. Need that west trend to stop now. Some members going into CT showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The trend is your friend, until it's your enemy. I think Napoleon said that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z EPS starting to tighten up a little bit. That’s really nice. Lots of big time outcomes for 95% of us. Shows the range of outcomes well. None go west of LI which is encouraging at this stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Strong storm signal. Reminds me of 1/26-1/27 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Please don’t list out amounts yet. I feel this is the same every year. It’s four days away, and that’s four days it can scoot out to sea or run up the Delaware. I’ve seen this movie before. You may not like the ending.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 since 2015 has been mentioned here's the worst 18 hour forecast of all time 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, North and West said: Please don’t list out amounts yet. I feel this is the same every year. It’s four days away, and that’s four days it can scoot out to sea or run up the Delaware. I’ve seen this movie before. You may not like the ending. . Miller A's always have a narrow jackpot zone with a major screw zone just to the NW of wherever that sets up. See 1/26-1/27 2015 and to a certain extent 12/26/10 as examples. It doesn't get any sharper than this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Models right now look like Juno 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models right now look like Juno I’d gladly sign for that. Epic amounts were a bit east of MBY but it was probably 18-20” here. Again it’s way too early to nail down an outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Miller A's always have a narrow jackpot zone with a major screw zone just to the NW of wherever that sets up. See 1/26-1/27 2015 and to a certain extent 12/26/10 as examples. It doesn't get any sharper than this. I was in the one-inch snowhole for that storm (Allentown). WSW for 10-16 turned into a coating of pixie dust. A truly awful memory, and reading the reports in this forum of what was happening 50 miles to my east made everything ten times worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: since 2015 has been mentioned here's the worst 18 hour forecast of all time Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I was in the one-inch snowhole for that storm (Allentown). WSW for 10-16 turned into a coating of pixie dust. A truly awful memory, and reading the reports in this forum of what was happening 50 miles to my east made everything ten times worse.Hence my point. We all love snowstorms, but verify first. This isn’t my first - or even second - rodeo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models right now look like Juno Embarrassing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember. Mind boggling that they don’t remember that. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I remember, below is from my archive, mind you we ended with about 5" backlash, and lucky to get even that (sorry for the poor format)! ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING... THE APPROACHING STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IMMEDIATELY. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...DO IT BEFORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EXPECT TO WAIT UNTIL MID WEEK. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT BEGINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES...BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO...THE FOLLOWING REGIONS. - EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FROM THE POCONOS DOWN THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. - NORTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. - THE ENTIRE STATE OF DELAWARE. - NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG...SLOW MOVING STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING VERY HEAVY SNOW TO THE WATCH AREA AND TO SURROUNDING REGIONS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO FEET WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORM...RESULTING IN BLOWING ND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO DURING MUCH OF THE STORM. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY DAYBREAK. AT THAT POINT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. BY MID DAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE SPREAD UP ABOUT AS FAR AS PHILADELPHIA AND TOMS RIVER...IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. DURING THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY...THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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