NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Feb 2013 was right before my father passed. I will actually never forget how he explained he was so impressed that I was able to understand what was happening and the forecast I made. It was... a nice memory. Never knew blizzards and fathers were connected for some like it was for me. Lost my dad 4 years ago. He was a lot older and able to tell stories from the winter of 1934 through Hurricane Donna in 1960. He wasn't really a wx weenie, but had some cool memories that fascinated me as a kid. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, larrye said: Respect your opinion, you probably know more than I do about this stuff. But 39" in western suffolk? Knowing that the NAM usually overstates QPF? It would have to get under some pretty good banding for several hours and I don't know if the intense banding will get far enough west for that. I guess we'll see. But I would prefer to use the 10-1 ratio maps and add a bit to increase the ratios if appropriate for temps ... then stating that higher amounts can be expected underneath areas where banding sets up. The Kuchera ratios taken verbatim is never a good idea. But when they're really insistent on strong ratios, there's usually a reason. I know a lot of folks take a blend of 10-1 and Kuchera and I think that's generally a good way to look at it. But because of that I think posting both makes sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Seems like just yesterday when people were out on the ledge and Coach Brasiluvsnow was calling some strategic timeouts boy did those pay off or what,,,,,ps take a bow USCG and Forky and Doorman and a few others you look like you might have hit walkout home runs touch em all,,,,,,that said the Nam run should be framed god I hope it verifies Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Let's reel this one in for Joe's dad. He's loving every minute of it. I will never forget, blizz 96 he put his hand on my shoulder and said "you wanted it kid, you got it!" 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, nycwinter said: big powerful storms can often drop 3 4 or in some cases 5 inches in a hour and that ca add up very quickly.. Yessir.. not it my neck of the woods but some places will see 36-40+. I'll take my 18-24 and be happy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With this storm and the dynamics/moisture at play, QPF probably isn't overdone. But again the Kuchera maps especially in the worst of it with blizzard conditions aren't happening. I could see maybe 12-1 ratios there. Winds will break the flakes apart and hurt ratios. The best ratios will be inland where winds will be reduced and there can be more piling up (but there will be less QPF). 12:1 would be a coup. I'd take that and run like a thief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. My heartfelt condolences go out. I also know what you are going through. My dad died of colon cancer in 2018, and we were very close. While he didn’t like snow like I do, we had much in common. It’s still really tough for me. Very sorry to hear about your loss, and enjoy the upcoming storm for him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, keno19 said: Pretty west of it's previous run, ya? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Blizzardo said: Yessir.. not it my neck of the woods but some places will see 36-40+. I'll take my 18-24 and be happy... I'm not thinking we are getting those numbers here, but it looks like a big storm is possible...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, JBG said: I "third" you. I lost my real Dad at 15, he was 47, in 1973. Fortunately it was from great to greater, but I lost my next Dad after almost 41 years knowing him and being his stepson my of the time in 2013. I lost my dad just over 2 years ago when I was 33 and I still think about him every day and probably will for the rest of my life. He wasn't too much into my weather hobby; my mom was always a little annoyed at it-"why do you care so much about snow?". But he would at least have conversations with me about things like this. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Neg nao... you readin all these posts about Kuchera ratios? Boss.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I'm not thinking we are getting those numbers here, but it looks like a big storm is possible...... Its not done coming west... just sit tight... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Anyone thinking the GFS will pull a big cave don't know the GFS. Probably a nice shift west, but still an eastern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 37 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. So sorry for you and your families loss. Hopefully this storm could bring a smile in a sad time and maybe his spirt is helping this storm shift westward for you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Its about that time... to break forth...the rhythim and the rhythm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, RDRY said: Anyone thinking the GFS will pull a big cave don't know the GFS. Probably a nice shift west, but still an eastern outlier. Yea just looking for another tick west at this point, let it cave when the snow is already falling like it often does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What are realistic totals for for central suffolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, justinj said: What are realistic totals for for central suffolk? 24+++++ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: 24+++++ Sag east woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS running...here we go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Yea just looking for another tick west at this point, let it cave when the snow is already falling like it often does! Lots of us were saying what could happen with a slightly earlier closing off of the low. This could and probably will make shifts but there's nothing to really stop it from coming west at least another 30-40 miles. And it's not a given that it'll trend back east at the last minute. 1/4/18 came west until the very end, I think 12/19/09 trended NW until the end, so did Boxing Day 2010. Sure some do tick back east but it's not a rule. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Gfs looks wayyyy better. But who knows what the surface ends up doing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Gfs folded big time here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Lots of us were saying what could happen with a slightly earlier closing off of the low. This could and probably will make shifts but there's nothing to really stop it from coming west at least another 30-40 miles. And it's not a given that it'll trend back east at the last minute. 1/4/18 came west until the very end, I think 12/19/09 trended NW until the end, so did Boxing Day 2010. Sure some do tick back east but it's not a rule. I just mean the GFS - it's very east still of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Gfs looks wayyyy better. But who knows what the surface ends up doing. Surface looks better at hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: I just mean the GFS - it's very east still of the other guidance. That's fine, I'm not concerned about it. When has it not caught up at the very end with these? As long as it's moving in the right direction it's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Based off that look. Its gotta be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now