USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Kudos to USCG, and thank you for the education 3 minutes ago, dseagull said: Spot on with your thought on the earlier H5 depictions, if this were to verify. Thanks for your explanation this afternoon. God knows I have eaten enough crow in my lifetime 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, kat5hurricane said: Better than Juno? Tbh, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: Ive said that multiple times and got bashed for it.. lol And if this verifies, accurate measurements will be very difficult as usual with MECS in areas that get these forecasted winds. (Good problem to have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 probably not done trending 22 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 hate to say it (not really) but I'm not sure this is done coming west! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Ive said that multiple times and got bashed for it.. lol I've given up saying it. Sometimes ya just gotta let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: The wind is part of the reason why posting kuchera is silly here. I believe the dynamic snow ratio (attempts to account for dendrite fracturing due to the wind) from Weathernerds might be a good reference here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Tbh, yes. Oh I know, I was being somewhat facetious and I know how mentioning a storm name triggers everybody 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: The wind is part of the reason why posting kuchera is silly here. Yeah the Kuchera ratio map is showing about 10 inches more for Long Island than the 10:1 map. 3 feet instead of 2 feet. Obviously Kuchera is not taking into account that the wind would mess up the ratios. Although I think it would still be slightly better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: probably not done trending Smelling the rain, close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If this goes west does Long Island get shafted? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And the Forkfather has spoken again. Lets go west gents. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. 4 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 hours ago, jdj5211 said: This is going to be a bit of a nowcast event like many of our big storms. Small shifts bring big differences. How many storms have we seen shift to monsters or nothing within 24 hours?! I still feel this is going to be a tucked in crawling if not stalling low that brings a widespread 12-24 to the entire sub forum. These models are chasing the rising motion under the eastern intense vorticity and causing this “eastward” thought, when in reality it’s not the case. In my opinion. GAME ON! I'll leave this here.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Congrats @bluewave The NAM run was the type of run we usually see for NNJ in these storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. Man that sucks. It's tough to lose a parent, especially one you are close to :/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. My prayers and condolences... May the good Lord comfort you and yours...Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: I believe the dynamic snow ratio (attempts to account for dendrite fracturing due to the wind) from Weathernerds might be a good reference here. A nws met once told me it didn't but *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The NAM run was the type of run we usually see for NNJ in these storms. Who said this was done coming West? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, dseagull said: Smelling the rain, close? Ya gotta smell the rain to get the goods... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: Who said this was done coming West? :p: It's likely not done trending 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8-12"? I take. You guys in l.i...man..making up for lost time from back in the normal days where you guys would switch over...haha last 10 years have been nuts for l.i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Not sure the twin forks will taint, but the cape will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Solid, I can get down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 wish i had gotten the snow blower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. Very sorry for your loss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, Nibor said: 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: The wind is part of the reason why posting kuchera is silly here. These 2 posts came in, right after the other. Posting 10-1 is just as silly as Kuchera. The ratios will be different all over the map and in a storm this cold almost universally better than 10-1. In parts about Kuchera shows, in others slightly better and others slightly worse. And I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure Kuchera accounts for wind diminishing the effects of ratios. Can people stop acting like they know better than the physics and algorithms of these models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. Im so sorry brother. I lost my dad in September. I had the honor to plow snow with him for many years until he retired. Getting me choked up because we'd be talking right now and I dont have him... 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, keno19 said: Wind weenies coming out tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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