Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Are ensembles of much use 24 hours before a storm? When there's 2 clusters with the op running between the two it's certainly informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sref ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Looking at individual EPS members there are 13 of 51 that IMO are big hits for this entire forum. hopefully by tomorrow that number can increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still some dual low solutions there. However there seems to be less of those than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I know most are just snow weenies, but I also double as a wind weenie. Anyone else excited about freight trains overhead? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, PuraVida said: I know most are just snow weenies, but I also double as a wind weenie. Anyone else excited about freight trains overhead? TBH, the wind could be pretty destructive :/. I love extreme weather, but I'm not looking forward to this potential wind personally. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 OBS thread gonna be nuts. When do we start it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wow. Essentially draw a line south from Nantucket. Each of the solutions west of there when nearest us would probably be big for the city on east. Huge chunk of members there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, PuraVida said: I know most are just snow weenies, but I also double as a wind weenie. Anyone else excited about freight trains overhead? Wind and ice are the two things I don't really look forward to anymore. I don't need the problems or the danger. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: Wow. Essentially draw a line south from Nantucket. Each of the solutions west of there when nearest us would probably be big for the city on east. Huge chunk of members there. Nam coming out soon hope we get a bomb on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Sref ?? LGA 10 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The EC has been steadily ramping up the QPF... into the 2"+ range that we've been expecting. That's big for approx. 24 hr duration. And the EC won't truly capture banding at the mesoscale. Whoever gets into the mega bands - get outside and experience it. These events don't come around very often... especially daytime weekends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, PuraVida said: I know most are just snow weenies, but I also double as a wind weenie. Anyone else excited about freight trains overhead? Live for long duration coastal wind events. They always intrigued more than tropical systems. This wont be in my top 10 without big changes, but makes for a great storm. Enjoy up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Below is a map of 500mb. The blue circle shows where the close off is and H5 (the black circle inside the blue circle). Soooo quick info about how the upper layers work. I wrote this before in here: For reference anything with h/H in it is designating height in mb. For example, h925 is 925 mb where as h85/7/5 is 850mb/700mb/ and 500mb respectively. The governing physics of weather is such that the upper levels (h925 and above) are what govern sensible weather (ie what precip falls, how much, winds, etc). For winds, you want to look at h925. The winds here are what can mix down. Normally you take a 10-15% reduction, however, that is not always a hard and fast rule. For precip type, a good rule of thumb is to look at h85 and h925. If h85 is below freezing, there's a good chance the precip is frozen, and likely snow (there are exceptions when there are warm pockets above h85). If it is above freezing, it is likely liquid. Now if h85 is above freezing and h925 is close to freezing or below, there is a good chance you are looking at freezing rain. If h85 and h925 are above freezing, most likely it is plain rain. The exception here is if you have a very shallow yet very cold surface layer and/or the ground has been frozen for a good period of time (ie a cold spell for a few days) and sfc temps are just at or very slightly above freezing. Usually lighter precip helps to aid this exception as well. For precip rates, you want to look at H7. H7 will show you where the model thinks the best forcing is going to be as well as the available energy for precip. H7 is about frontogenic forcing. Lastly, let's look at H5. I won't go into h3/250 as that is beyond the scope of this post. So for H5, this is where you look for phases and energies moving across the continent. So, the 0z GFS slipped east about 75 miles. If you just look at that, well.. Then to you all hope is lost. Yet if you look up at H5, you see that one of the energies phased slightly early, causing a slightly late capture of another energy, ie, phasing late. This allowed the surface low pressure to slip east. However, when you look through the energies at H5, you quickly begin to realize that a less than 3 hour difference in any one of the energies - and consequential phasing - would have changed the outcome (Ala 6z Euro). I'm not going to go too deep into H5 energies as if you have been following along, you would have seen this explained before. If you have not been, follow along from here and look out for what this post has pointed out. To go into h5 energies and orientations would be too long a post and likely confusing as each phase and energy act differently depending on location, speed, strength, etc. It's best to just observe for this moving foreward. One last thing regarding upper levels. For a coastal storm (or in the Midwest when a storm explodes and runs up from the gulf), you want to be NW of the various closing off of lows at the upper levels. When low pressure systems develop, they develop from SE (at the sfc) to NW (through H5). This diagonal development with regard to height in the atmosphere allows each low pressure center at each level to vent (ie expel air up and outward so that the pressure can fall. Remember, in layman's terms, pressure is essentially a measure of how much air is in any given space at any given time). So as you always want to be NW of the sfc low pressure for frozen precip, you want to be NW of H85 for snow and NW of H7 for the best snowfall rates. When H7 moves directly over or West your area, this is when you can dry slot and when h85 moves over or west of your area, you have h85 temps which shoot above freezing and this changes your snow to other types of precip (remember we talked about upper levels temps earlier). On H5/7/85 maps, when a LP closes off a this level, it is represented through a close black contour (ie circle) These are just some general rules to keep in mind with these types of storms and why the surface depictions on models are really the laziest type of forecasting and produces poor forecasting skills and verification. It is also why I am not writing this storm off at all. Last note - the Euro with its resolution tends to pick up on these rules the best. This is why it used to be the gold standard. The H5 is at like 18,000Ft right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Patiently waiting for the 0z runs... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Actually there should be greater lean towards the west then what is being depicted by the EPS at this time. The cluster to the east is a result of the double low which is showing up at the end of some of these model runs. This is skewing the ensembles. Those eastern flyers will start to disappear one by one as we move forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: Patiently waiting for the 0z runs... Greatest movie ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, nightknights said: The H5 is at like 18,000Ft right Yeah, roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wind and ice are the two things I don't really look forward to anymore. I don't need the problems or the danger.100% agree.Only thing I like about not getting snow in Morristown out of this storm (I had an awesome February last year, and a lot of other storms in recent decades to enjoy) is (hopefully) not losing power and heat.Someone will lose power and heat out of this with these forecasted winds, and that is dangerous.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I don't think it was mentioned yet but I could be wrong. I am guessing there will be thundersnow in a few places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nam time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 0Z HRRR with light snow still falling 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Greatest movie ever It "Shirley" is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, mannylovessnow said: 0Z HRRR with light snow still falling Another trend west, still early for hrr though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 @Mitchel Volk My notifications say you tagged me in a message, yet I cannot see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The west is the best.... get here and we'll do the rest... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'll keep it simple, through hr 24 it's closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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