NorthShoreWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: Confirming? Please take a close look at the eps. You'll see how close this is to an entire subforum smoke job. There's 2 clear camps and I have no idea which one is right. Dang, he's still got 3 posts left today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: This is Juno but 40 miles further east. Maybe. Hopefully we can get this tucked a little further. Lots of possibilities still. A GFS dud can’t be written off either given the number of EPS members fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: This is Juno but 40 miles further east. Further east than Juno and I can leave the snowblower in the shed....and I'm just across the Arthur Kill. The depictions of the various maps show around 6-8 for here, Juno was around 7 inches. I would think further east would be much less for this area. For me this isn't a tough forecast because I'm not in the thick of it; it's just a matter of will it be a nuisance or significant. Anything more would be gravy. My BIL in ME though, he is going to be screaming bloody murder at the notion of a big snow. Dude hates the stuff. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The cutoff on the NAM is painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rgem looks really nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe. Hopefully we can get this tucked a little further. Lots of possibilities still. A GFS dud can’t be written off either given the number of EPS members fairly similar. Just has to close off a few hours sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Based on the 700mb features it makes sense to me where the heavy snow bands would be located at least. It would start over central to eastern Suffolk and then obliterate their way up into E CT into MA. Good snow would make it back to NYC but not the death band stuff. It looks like Juno 2015 pretty much. 1/4/18 had a similar track/upper air features and may have a similar evolution in the end. BTW, don't look at the 3k NAM. Total dud pretty much. Incredible how fickle this all is. Fingers crossed that these tucked in, wrapped up models win out. Kind of looks like March 13 2018 a bit with the track. I had 9.5 of cement as the temp profile was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: The cutoff on the NAM is painful. still think we do good here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem looks really nice Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: This is Juno but 40 miles further east. Every time you mention the name Juno it gives undo credibility to the Weather channel's marketing ploy of naming winter storms. Secondly, I didn't see a single flake in that storm 25 miles West of the city. This storm will make it much further West even if the more tucked in solutions are incorrect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 In NYC trying to figure out if it's going to snow on Saturday like: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I have a different take in terms of Juno because I lived in the Mid Hudson Valley and got 12 inches from that storm. Thats not going to happen this time around unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, USCG RS said: Models are tools, not what the eventual outcome of the weather will be. So if the H5 is gorgeous and the sfc is horrific, I am going to forecast with the H5 in mind and let the sfc play catch up (if it ever does) How often does the H5 in mind with no surface back up turn out to be valid vs. a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yeah, just like Juno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, MANDA said: Definite improvements on 18Z NAM. Does not do much to help us west of I95ers but much better look for bigger snows I95 south and east and across LI. Window is closing for western and northern areas for anything more than a minor to perhaps moderate event. I am out in Bethlehem, PA - not really expecting anything. What is crazy are some of those EPS members. By my count 10 of those 50 members would give me 12” +. Brings new definition to the term “Go big or go home.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just some small nowcasting...to my eye it looks like the northern branch appears much stronger on current sat compared to what the NAM had. The southern vort may be slightly west of NAM model, but overall the stream interaction looks much better. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I hate comparing to past storms because they are all different in some ways. Plus, the names are trash. Wish that never happened. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM is solid-thinking we see other models beef up the QPF output as we get closer to go time (western side) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah, just like Juno... To be clear, you expect this to have more effects to the west than Juno did? I was not aware it was so paltry up your way; I guess 7 inches was a win over here then. It did snow a lot that winter though, but nothing over about 9 inches and quite a few 4-5. Again, thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 35 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Rockland and Westchester would get 6 inches on that run. The last time I looked they were N and W of NYC. Please stop posting. That's not a big deal compared to how crushed eastern LI would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 40 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Recon plane took off from New Orleans/gulf area and looks like, heading eastbound.. That is the flight that will be sampling the western Atlantic for the 0z runs. There are two flights scheduled to go out over the PAC as well. Again the intention is for this data to make it into the 0z model suite. The update for tomorrow is for two flights over the western Atlantic and two over the PAC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM is solid-thinking we see other models beef up the QPF output as we get closer to go time (western side) I definitely think us Connecticut folks will do pretty well with the storm. I agree the western side will fill out more than is modeled ..the bands are going to set up where they want to and hopefully we are under them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM looks very similar to the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yeah, RGEM, we can fine tune this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, larrye said: That's not a big deal compared to how crushed eastern LI would get. No kidding. But it can cause problems and it's not 1-3 like you know who would like you to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM looks very similar to the last 3 runs. Low is a little more tucked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I hate comparing to past storms because they are all different in some ways. Plus, the names are trash. Wish that never happened. On the naming I totally agree. I don't care that much, but am surprised that this group is accepting of it. Seems like the sort of overly commercial thing that would get pulverized here. On the other hand it's a sign of the greatly increased frequency of snowstorms over the last 20 years. Growing up I would have had Aaron ('83.) That's it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rgem has the double barrel feature low and less intense LP, whereas the NAM basically consolidated the lows into one was more westerly focused with the low and deeper... and the RGEM still produced a bigger snow output north and west. I think the NAMs solution would produce a lot more for NYC and NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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