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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks a lot like the 12z ICON.

But way better? It got rid of the double barrel feature much earlier and it chose the west LP 962 basically at the benchmark, perhaps a little inside actually...

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Just now, RDRY said:

At 48 hours, it's 5 MB stronger and a bit more north, but the precip shield is less expansive. Odd. Maybe it's more occluded.

Definite improvements on 18Z NAM.  Does not do much to help us west of I95ers but much better look for bigger snows I95 south and east and across LI.  Window is closing for western and northern areas for anything more than a minor to perhaps moderate event.

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2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Definite improvements on 18Z NAM.  Does not do much to help us west of I95ers but much better look for bigger snows I95 south and east and across LI.  Window is closing for western and northern areas for anything more than a minor to perhaps moderate event.

With a 960s low in that spot with that track, you'd have to think the precip shield should be more expansive to the west.

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

From NE forum

image.png.23c8bbb40f7c735449a64a009c156b93.png

The death 3-5"/hr band on that would likely be around the William Floyd Parkway. It's usually a little west of where that crazy frontogenesis line is. For the city I'd want that about 50 mi west of there. Also that'd be a tremendous moist feed. 90+kt S and E winds coming in from off the ocean at this level. That would certainly be a burial where that band sets up.

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At hr 45 the double barrel low feature is almost entirely eliminated and it looks like it's in a perfect spot to bury I95 in jersey/nyc area, but then at hour 48 it hops a bit to far to the east when it full consolidates the lows into 1 and as a result misses the best snows by 30 miles. VERY close to a 15 inch+ snow storm for Central Park on this run. 

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