kingbaus Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This run isn't going to do it I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s2sailorlis Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 with it blowing all day Saturday 30ish + won't power outages be a concern....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, kingbaus said: This run isn't going to do it I think. Its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, larrye said: I'll ask you the same question I asked someone else earlier. What good is a favorable H5 if the surface doesn't reflect it? Are you also saying that perhaps the surface features on the next run will better reflect the H5? The surface features should reflect what's going on above (e.g., H5). There can be reasons they don't reflect it completely, but in general if the H5 forecast is bad, so will the surface forecast be bad. In other words, if you make a wrong turn and don't know it, the next turn is going to be wrong too. So short answer to your question, the H5 is no good (as in it doesn't matter regarding the weather you experiences at the surface) if the surface doesn't reflect it, but you're unlikely to get a good surface chart without a good H5 setup. There's probably stuff that is not technically correct about this explanation, but I hope it helps with understanding in a broad sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Gonna be east. Look in Canada. Its pushing it away. Confluence getting stronger every run. Not good imo It doesn’t “push it away” but if it gets out of hand it flattens the heights out ahead of it somewhat which we don’t want. And also…. It’s the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: It doesn’t “push it away” but if it gets out of hand it flattens the heights out ahead of it somewhat which we don’t want. And also…. It’s the Nam. Same thing really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, s2sailorlis said: with it blowing all day Saturday 30ish + won't power outages be a concern....? not with powdery snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12k NAM is flurries showers all day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, David-LI said: 12k NAM is flurries showers all day tomorrow actually has a large area of 1-2 inches form the PRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Look how it backs the flow. Going to be a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: During a NAM run from yesterday during this exact timeframe my area would have 29:1 ratios during this point. Any more west shifts…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM has same double low structure at H39. In close proximity. Hopefully western one dominates because if it does the 500 looks more a little more favorable than 12Z. Next few time steps should be somewhat interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I would deft agree I'm in a good place here on the very end. I'm saying 8-24 inches Suffolk County. And that's a very rough/ combining of both gfs/euro. Though not as extreme as the 2-3 feet #s Where you are, definitely. 12"+ is probably a lock and likely 15"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So far and still plenty of storm to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: NAM has same double low structure at H39. In close proximity. Hopefully western one dominates because if it does the 500 looks more a little more favorable than 12Z. Next few time steps should be somewhat interesting. At 42 it picks the eastern one, but it does look better by a bit than last run at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: In any situation when I see a 500mb chart like that I'd think 90% of us are about to be buried. Nice backing of the flow already as trough is about to go negative. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Look how it backs the flow. Going to be a beast. Max winds have rounded base of the trof but still some digging left to do as another small max rounds the base from MS and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: At 42 it picks the eastern one, but it does look better by a bit than last run at this point. .... and at 45 it goes back west and I think closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is good...me thinks. 18z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Keeps jumping to the eastern convection or it would be a monster. not this time, it chooses the right playdate it appears at hr 45 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 970 mb? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks a lot like the 12z ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Has this storm been slowed down or am I imagining that? Been seeing several times is still snowing 3z Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z nam is a blizzard out here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 962mb. Storm force winds well inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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