USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 48 minutes ago, larrye said: I'll ask you the same question I asked someone else earlier. What good is a favorable H5 if the surface doesn't reflect it? Are you also saying that perhaps the surface features on the next run will better reflect the H5? Models are tools, not what the eventual outcome of the weather will be. So if the H5 is gorgeous and the sfc is horrific, I am going to forecast with the H5 in mind and let the sfc play catch up (if it ever does) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said: Is that the pause that has been shown in some of the more aggressive modeling in terms of qpf? That group of about 30-40% that seems to remain in place south of Long Island while the rest depart for the coast of Maine? Yes. Or those the ones not chasing the convection to the east. It stays consolidated into one low not 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. Pick the scraper and you won't be disappointed. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. Yup clear as day the 2 camps. And the spread looks almost 50/50. It could really go either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. You are money no matter what. Gas up the snow blower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. Its really insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. I know the KC Buffalo game was mentioned a number of times but that is exactly what's happening down to the wire. Ball is in GFS court. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wonder if this is the run we get namd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Wonder if this is the run we get namd. It is time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Wonder if this is the run we get namd. We’ve been getting NAMd east of the city for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: Please do yourself a favor, and get a clue. 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Please do us all a favor and go back to lurking. Can we please not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll say one more time. There is no way in hell anyone in the heavy snow bands in this or any subforum in the NE is going to see 15:1 ratios with a coastal system and high winds. NO ONE. Please stop with the nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yep, crazy the spread in EPS outcomes this close in. A few horrible GFS like ones there but hopefully it’s just the model trying to get a clue given the dynamic setup. I tend to think we’re okay east of the city and golden for places like the Forks but plenty of watching left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2 main camps on the EPS. 1 is a nyc subforum crusher. The other is a coastal scraper. Absolute wild at this lead time. 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: You are money no matter what. Gas up the snow blower Oh look, another Long Island special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Follow up to another poster above. Here are members 1 through 25 to add to his/hers 26 to 51. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So on the EPS (for the immediate NYC area), I see 9 scrapers, 13 hits and 3 whiffs. Jeez, thanks for clearing that up for us Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodsworth Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll order #9, please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The highs and lows in the forum are incredible. From model to model, the speed at which they happen is impressive too. …please continue, it’s entertaining to this amateur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The bickering is so ridiculous. Take it to PM or banter or better yet nowhere and grow the F up. In the meantime when I see those posts they’re getting deleted. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dodsworth said: I'll order #9, please. You want fries and a coke with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Follow up to another poster above. Here are members 1 through 25 to add to his/hers 26 to 51. Is #20 available? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, crazy the spread in EPS outcomes this close in. A few horrible GFS like ones there but hopefully it’s just the model trying to get a clue given the dynamic setup. I tend to think we’re okay east of the city and golden for places like the Forks but plenty of watching left. I would deft agree I'm in a good place here on the very end. I'm saying 8-24 inches Suffolk County. And that's a very rough/ combining of both gfs/euro. Though not as extreme as the 2-3 feet #s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: Follow up to another poster above. Here are members 1 through 25 to add to his/hers 26 to 51. Lots of misses/scrapers on this set even for Eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I wonder if those two camps of lows (south of LI and east of Cape Cod) might represent the same complex low with a western tucked center and an eastern secondary where the triple point is at that time? But I guess it's more likely to represent two different tracks for one low (or most of them do, some could be explained by my first idea, or even by different timing scenarios). After what happened in 2016 I am very reluctant to say this misses NYC or almost misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Another thing I've been seeing is that confluence in Canada pushing down more an more. thats pushing it east. Its more prominent on the nam at 18hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM bringing in some light snow tomorrow at 10 am with low still off coast of FL. The setup looks great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gonna be east. Look in Canada. Its pushing it away. Confluence getting stronger every run. Not good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Another thing I've been seeing is that confluence in Canada pushing down more an more. thats pushing it east. Its more prominent on the nam at 18hrs That's not confluence. That's part of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now