Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If it develops 12-18 hours earlier I think NYC Metro might be bringing out umbrellas but yes I could see why you'd want that up there lol. Agreed, I think NYC metros best chance for HECs more depends on a deeper low developing like some of the guidance has hinted at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 We want this to really start getting going east of NJ or close to our latitude. If it goes off too soon it’ll want to hug the coast and we get something like the GGEM. Of course too late/progressive is another option and it grazes the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 You can't really take the surface maps too seriously at this point and the east/west windshield wiper effect. What we do know is that there looks to be a really big storm somewhere. All the other stuff will be ironed out over the next few days. It does seem very thread the needle though. A lot will have to line up perfectly to get big snows here so don't get your hopes up too high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Agreed, I think NYC metros best chance for HECs more depends on a deeper low developing like some of the guidance has hinted at. Moving too fast for a HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Moving too fast for a HECS February 2006 was a fast mover. If it bombs out in the right spot could be a HECS for someone on the east coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The forward speed and pna ridge position will cap how west this can go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Moving too fast for a HECS It doesn't take much to drop 2' totals these days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Moving too fast for a HECS Not really 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It doesn't take much to drop 2' totals these days. The ocean is very dynamic and warm. Storms have been overperforming all winter in terms of QPF. A storm like this could easily dump 2 feet in under 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The CMC has not loaded yet on Pivotal, must be so in awe of what is showing that it froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Moving too fast for a HECS Maybe for a 24+ inch storm but you could get a 12-18 inch storm even with a fast mover, it's happened before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Ukie is way east of CMC/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The GFS/GEFS are a little more east so the more westward CMC provides a good balance between both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12z GEFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Moving too fast for a HECS Normally I would agree. However, depending on when and how this phases, a HECS is a definite possibility. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Ukie is way east of CMC/GFS Yes but it's west of the last Ukie run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly being in the jackpot zone with rain just to the SE is not an ideal spot this far out. I would favor the interior at this point but who knows with this winter it could either way. In my opinion this one is for eastern LI and eastern NE. The CMC is overamped, which it likes to do at this range. I think the risk here is OTS not hugger or runner. I would not be at all surprised to see this trend east over the next few days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z GEFS Still a lot of spread there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I'm going to give these boards and models a rest till Wednesday or Thursday. Analyzing every model run will drive you nuts especially if the end result isn't what you wanted. All you need to know is that a big snowstorm is on the table. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Moving too fast for a HECS If the ULL closes up to the south of us it will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, NutleyBlizzard said: If the ULL closes up to the south of us it will be. certainly possible. Was just commenting on the model run-verbatim it's a fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is a tricky setup. Lots of moving parts. Don't get too caught up with any particular solutions yet. What we need is to look to narrow down the spread between all guidance. That's step one for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The ocean is very dynamic and warm. Storms have been overperforming all winter in terms of QPF. A storm like this could easily dump 2 feet in under 24 hours. It’s not impossible at all to get 18-24” or even more (not saying this storm would do it) with a fast mover. 2-3”/hr adds up fast. 2/7/13 lasted 12 hours or so and had 30” in central Suffolk County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12z GEFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I got weenied by alot of these people for saying it's too early to say anything . even a broken clock is right twice a day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: even a broken clock is right twice a day.. no it's called not throwing in the towel too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 An east based negative NAO is showing up on the gefs for this time. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: An east based negative NAO is showing up on the gefs for this time. Interesting CMC is not running on pivotal weather. Do you have any QPF or snow amounts from the french site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: An east based negative NAO is showing up on the gefs for this time. Interesting current- Unified Surface Analysis- https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: CMC is not running on pivotal weather. Do you have any QPF or snow amounts from the french site? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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