Rjay Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 A storm system will develop over the southeast and move up the eastern seaboard between January 28th and 30th. As currently modeled this is a thread the needle type of event for our area. There's strong ensemble support for a major storm somewhere off of our coastline. This could work out for us but there's no real high lattitude blocking on the Atlantic side to slow things down and reinforce cold air into the area. Please feel free to discuss all that in here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Canadian offshore 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Canadian offshore 0Z Yeah but look at the differences at H5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yeah but look at the differences at H5 Digs deeper which is great but we want the orientation of that trough maybe 100 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Digs deeper which is great but we want the orientation of that trough maybe 100 miles west. 100%. PNA is the problem here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output Height rises in the Canadian Maritimes also now being depicted = less progressive flow out on the Atlantic side; amplitude - let's see if this becomes a trend with future guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: There’s a thread the needle scenario that could work out with with this system. While our biggest snowstorms usually have both a -AO and +PNA around storm time, the late January 2015 event only had a +AO. Latest runs are just a little too far to the east with the PNA ridge. So the current runs take the storm to our east. But since we have a +AO, maybe latter runs can pump the ridge east of New England more? This would allow the storm to came further west with a sharper WAR just to the east. well looky here. .. BW green means go??????? paging mr cowan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 how about that? wpc disco ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Within the fairly agreeable mean pattern, the most prominent forecast uncertainties have been with the eastern Pacific/western U.S. evolution as shortwave energy approaches the upper ridge that reaches the West along with expected western Atlantic development as an amplified trough reaches the East late in the week. Model and ensemble spread remains considerable for the Pacific/West area, with recent GFS runs and 12Z CMC holding onto a stronger ridge versus the past couple ECMWF runs. However the 18Z and new 00Z GFS runs have adjusted much closer to the 12Z ECMWF and the ensemble means. The 00Z CMC has also trended toward this improving cluster. This leaves the 00Z UKMET that diverges from most other guidance for various aspects of the eastern Pacific/northwestern North American pattern. Perhaps with the aid of this better western agreement, the 00Z models have trended somewhat closer for the late week/weekend Atlantic development. In particular the 00Z GFS has gone away from the 12Z/18Z runs whose slower/sharper/elongated upper trough had produced a farther southwest storm than a great majority of GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble members. The 00Z GFS/CMC and latest ensemble means are now similar in showing low pressure somewhat east of the Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday and then tracking into or south of the Canadian Maritimes by early Sunday. The supporting shortwave energy is currently over the North Pacific and is not scheduled to round the East Pacific ridge until around Tuesday, plus guidance is still varying with the western ridge/Pacific energy heading into it, so it will likely take a while to gain much more confidence in a particular scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Trough is still too far east for us to get anything significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Trough is still too far east for us to get anything significant. The synoptic setup looks roughly similar to a few misses we've had already this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Trough is still too far east for us to get anything significant. Some years its just the way it goes. I was surprised at the one event we got earlier in this region, and while I'm never shocked to see snow against all odds ( it is winter after all ) I will not be surprised if that remains our only significant event this year ( going with history; snowless Dec in New Brunswick NJ area often correlates with below average snowfall for remainder of the winter, though in 2016 we did get a January whopper ). We'll see. Clock is ticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The CMC is wild! Offshore low bends back to clobber coastal upper Mid-Atl through New England. High ceiling but low likelihood solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The CMC is a very powerful storm. Wow. And it deepens extremely rapidly down into the 960s at a perfect time for us. Sign me up for that solution. Could be rain for eastern sections... not sure yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 upstream TRENDS 500mb Northwest shifts translate well downstream (east coast) the small scale changes here can bring us a much better solution----imho 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Truly insane snowfall NYC east on that CMC run. Actually everyone gets heavy snow, but eastern areas are buried! It's nice to see big solutions like this, but obviously we would need a near perfect upper level evolution to get something like this. It's on the table... but so is a complete miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 You guys just got CMC'd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doorman said: upstream TRENDS 500mb Northwest shifts translate well downstream (east coast) the small scale changes here can bring us a much better solution----imho Positive changes on the gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just for shits and giggles because we have had so little this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: The CMC is a very powerful storm. Wow. And it deepens extremely rapidly down into the 960s at a perfect time for us. Sign me up for that solution. Could be rain for eastern sections... not sure yet. How can we get a big snow without blocking? I'm no met or even close, but it seems to me from all I have read here over the years, that is critical.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Cmc is about best case scenario with a system like this without blocking. Ukie still wide right but made improvements. I think every Miller B in history the ukie was wide right at this range hah. The gfs made improvements if you ignore the final solution it was actually more similar to yesterday's 18z run vs any other run. Wouldn't have taken much change to start forming a low near the Se coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: How can we get a big snow without blocking? I'm no met or even close, but it seems to me from all I have read here over the years, that is critical.... Any time you have a well placed strong western/Rockies ridge you can get a major snow event with a +NAO. I think January 87 had a strongly positive NAO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC is a HECS and then some, record breaker for the entire immediate metro area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Any time you have a well placed strong western/Rockies ridge you can get a major snow event with a +NAO. I think January 87 had a strongly positive NAO How was Feb 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Ukie looks west but nothing like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Ukie looks west but nothing like the CMC. The UKMET is not even in the same universe as the CMC 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I do believe that's the first time that the Canadian showed anything like that for this potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS is generally a lot more favorable. better amplification of the PNA ridge allows for the downstream trough axis to shift W and dig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Strong enough ridging near the Canadian Maritimes and east of New England can act as a substitute -NAO and -AO. Ok so it is possible, but how probable? I remember the Jan 87 storm; it was no blockbuster but highly disruptive due to timing. And for the times, it actually was a blockbuster, even if amounts weren't that high. Feb 2006, I thought we had some transient blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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