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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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1 minute ago, jaysoner said:

Oh God he's the wurst.  He's literally 2000 :weenie: in a human costume.

 

Really tho has got his own agenda never listen to him

Respectfully disagree. Man puts out his forecast and sticks to it, doesn't sh*t talk other Mets, and explains the processes better than most meteorologists. Learned a lot from following him. To each their own though.  

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1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Yes but unlike you, a random commenter, the physics takes into account that the precip is at the very tail end of the storm when it is extremely cold and the wind couldn't be further out of the picture. So while the storm average might be 13.5/1 or something, that time frame might benefit from higher ratios. STOP.

Don't need to weenie out, be happy QPF increased and don't fabricate ratios based on "physics". Just because it's fairly cold doesn't mean you get 20:1

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3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Yes but unlike you, a random commenter, the physics takes into account that the precip is at the very tail end of the storm when it is extremely cold and the wind couldn't be further out of the picture. So while the storm average might be 13.5/1 or something, that time frame might benefit from higher ratios. STOP.

There's so much more to snow-liquid ratios than just column temp and wind. There are lots of great resources available online that explain the crosshair method of snow growth forecasting. That will get you much closer to realistic expectations than simply assuming that colder is better. 

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Just now, Jt17 said:

So you've analyzed the physics of the GFS model and can tell me for certain that it doesn't know better about what it's ingesting than you do? And for the love of christ I didn't say we were getting 20-1 snow ratios, I literally broke down the updated snow outputs for both 10-1 and the Kuchera maps. If you break it down, it's like a 13 or 14/1 ratio storm for the first .5 inches of qpf and then it's 20-1 for the tail end. That's just what it says, I didn't wish for it to happen or think it's going to happen. I actually think we're going to just end up with more qpf than is modeled to begin with on the GFS. 

The GFS doesn't calculate snowfall forecasts, that's up to model vendor algorithms. Thanks for the attempted sanctimony, though. 

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