USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:53 PM, Metasequoia said: I suspect this isn't the last model surprise. NOAA might be right afterall about New England forecast. Expand This is not over by any means. TBH. Its close. Perhaps I am just going down the ship here, but I am still not writing this off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:52 PM, gravitylover said: You don't like snow so no great loss, right? Expand blizzards are cool. nuisance snow isn't 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:55 PM, forkyfork said: blizzards are cool. nuisance snow isn't Expand Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:54 PM, USCG RS said: This is not over by any means. TBH. Its close. Perhaps I am just going down the ship here, but I am still not writing this off. Expand I'm not writing this off either. I'm just reacting to the model runs today. These weren't just small bumps east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:21 PM, Rjay said: Did you did BOX's afd? I'd be losing my mind too. Expand It's all about expectations of course. This isn't the last model surprise. NOAA's forecast for New England might just verify in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:55 PM, forkyfork said: blizzards are cool. nuisance snow isn't Expand Do you think we may have some surprises in store? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Radar looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:58 PM, nycsnow said: Do you think we may have some surprises in store? Expand I do. Whether they be good or bad is tbd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:45 PM, justinj said: I can’t believe so many are throwing in the towel already lol Expand Radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 A month of great blocking and we couldn't buy a drop of precip. Now the storm train is rolling and there's an express track from NC out into the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:45 PM, justinj said: I can’t believe so many are throwing in the towel already lol Expand I've never thrown in the towel before an event and won't start today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 But I am a bit tilted by the current guidance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:59 PM, Rjay said: I do. Whether they be good or bad is tbd. Expand this 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snowing in Tom's river at my buddy's house. He just called me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:56 PM, Rjay said: I'm not writing this off either. I'm just reacting to the model runs today. These weren't just small bumps east. Expand No they weren't. Unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 we can hope for a slight wetter trend after the convection offshore actually develops and gets ingested into the next model run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:05 PM, forkyfork said: we can hope for a slight wetter trend after the convection offshore actually develops and gets ingested into the next model run Expand It's amazing these convective blobs over the gulf stream are causing such model mayhem. I blame climate change and these ridiculously warm sst. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 A bit better HRRR run so far through hour 9. Millibar stronger and leaning northwest. Through hour 12, definite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hrrr gonna be a little better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:05 PM, USCG RS said: No they weren't. Unfortunately. Expand They weren't, and I'll eat crow when the fat lady sings her tune. Going to have some further praise towards the GFS if the signal was indeed first recognized by the least trusted models prior to 48 hours. Going to be an interesting year end report by many forecasters. Storm is bombing out. Let's enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:14 PM, dseagull said: They weren't, and I'll eat crow when the fat lady sings her tune. Going to have some further praise towards the GFS if the signal was indeed first recognized by the least trusted models prior to 48 hours. Going to be an interesting year end report by many forecasters. Storm is bombing out. Let's enjoy. Expand The gfs was wrong the entire time. The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:15 PM, Rjay said: The gfs was wrong the entire time. The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream. Expand Let's hop on a boat and drop ice cubes out there... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:54 PM, Rjay said: He loves a good FU Expand Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:14 PM, nycsnow said: Hrrr gonna be a little better Expand Yup. Compare with previous run -- the southwest low is robbing energy from the northeast low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:14 PM, dseagull said: They weren't, and I'll eat crow when the fat lady sings her tune. Going to have some further praise towards the GFS if the signal was indeed first recognized by the least trusted models prior to 48 hours. Going to be an interesting year end report by many forecasters. Storm is bombing out. Let's enjoy. Expand On 1/28/2022 at 11:15 PM, Rjay said: The gfs was wrong the entire time. The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream. Expand Like I said, I am going down with the ship, however, I am not buying the East shifts. Given H3/5/7... This has a KU hit all over it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Time to migrate full time to the Obs thread; see you all there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hrrrrr def better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 West and a little stronger 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:18 PM, USCG RS said: Like I said, I am going down with the ship, however, I am not buying the East shifts. Given H3/5/7... This has a KU hit all over it. Expand I think your the last one. I may have finally given up. Amazing at 6z today we were thinking historic with the nam and EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Whatever model drops the most snow in my backyard is correct 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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