SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs had the right idea of being east all week but it was too far east. Completely agree. I think that's why many mets blend the models to get their final forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Awful trends, legit just not our winter I guess just enjoy whatever falls This is the first weenie I've handed out on this site. Congrats on the distinct honor. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Latest HRRR Still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it When there is a double low that actually develops, why does this happen? I have actually never understood the physic of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Heavy Snow Disco from WPC. Sums things up nicely I think. Some of the posts in here this afternoon have been so negative. It is going to snow. There is still question as to where the western edge shaft zone is going to be but this has been in question for days. From coastal NJ to central / eastern L.I. really nothing has changed. This is a significant event. Need to watch this develop to get better idea where the <6" totals start and dwindle down west and north. So far this is not a walk the plank situation some are painting it to be. You have to get those Kuchera numbers out of your head. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it exactly. if I was solely basing this off of the mid and upper levels, I would go 10-16" or even 12-18". PVA is aimed right at the metro, the 700mb closes S of LI, and the jet dynamics are nearly perfect however, there's some weird stuff going on at the surface. I'm not discounting it at all, it could be right, but I just can't be confident in a depiction like that 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Jan 29 2022 - 00Z Tue Feb 01 2022 ...Southern Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic... Days 1-2... ...Powerful Nor'easter/Blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A powerful low pressure system will rapidly develop tonight just off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight as the associated upper trough assumes a negative tilt before closing Saturday. The surface low bombs out with the central pressure dropping more than 24mb between 00Z tonight and 00Z Sunday, an indication of the powerful winds that will be associated with the system. Strong upward ascent supported by a coupled upper jet and low-to-mid level frontogenesis will promote the development of moderate to heavy snow on the northwest side of the low. 12Z HREF guidance indicates mean ensemble hourly snowfall of 1" developing along the Delmarva coast late this evening, the Jersey Shore and Long Island overnight, and across southeastern New England through the day Saturday, and across eastern Maine Saturday afternoon into the evening. The highest mean hourly snowfall is 2 to 2.5" over southeastern Mass Saturday late morning through the middle afternoon and along coastal Maine and Down East Main Saturday afternoon. For the 48-hour period ending 00Z Monday, WPC probabilities indicate an 80% chance for exceeding 18" between Boston and Cape Cod with 40% values stretching from the central Jersey Shore to central Long Island and through interior eastern New England. Probabilities for over 8" of at least 40% stretch from the Delmarva through the Northeastern Urban Corridor and pretty much all of Maine. There is a risk for over 30 inches, particularly in southeast Massachusetts where repeating bands of ocean enhanced snow will maximize accumulations in spite of dendritic fracturing due to 50 to 70kt flow in the DGZ. Meanwhile, upper level forcing will allow a large comma head precipitation shield to support snow showers moving southeast across the southern Appalachians to the Carolina Piedmont. There are moderately high probabilities for 4 inches in the Smokies, and 20 to 40 percent probabilities over west-central NC into north-central SC, including Charlotte. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs had the right idea of being east all week but it was too far east. Just because you're wrong in the right direction doesn't make you right. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: When there is a double low that actually develops, why does this happen? I have actually never understood the physic of this. Normally it happens in a transfer scenario but these lows we’ve seen in recent years like this probably are some product of the crazy warm WRN NATL SSTs/WAR/AGW issues is my guess because they’re a recent thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: exactly. if I was solely basing this off of the mid and upper levels, I would go 10-16" or even 12-18". PVA is aimed right at the metro, the 700mb closes S of LI, and the jet dynamics are nearly perfect however, there's some weird stuff going on at the surface. I'm not discounting it at all, it could be right, but I just can't be confident in a depiction like that If you look at H25/3/5/7.... This is a beast for the area. This is why I am still thinking that this will be a pretty hard hit around here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Just because you're wrong in the right direction doesn't make you right. Sounds like something Benny Hill would say. “When you say no, do you really mean yes?” no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, tomcatct said: That is very true ..no science to it.. just some years it finds a way to snow. Well there's some science to it insofar as patterns tend to stay in place for awhile (especially these past few years). In '13–'14 and "14–'15, it was the incredible -EPO, for example. In the past few years, it seems like a progressive pattern combined with a ridge somewhere between the 'SE-ridge zone' and the 'west-based NAO zone.' Roll-of-the-dice pattern to me. Last year, we had some pretty good luck (esp. in February when, IIRC, the ridge pulled up north some, which created some blockiness). This year, it's been pretty mehhhh. As for this one, I think it's a watch-and-see-type deal, but I'd be more excited east of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: If you look at H25/3/5/7.... This is a beast for the area. This is why I am still thinking that this will be a pretty hard hit around here. Been agreeing with you since early on. Not wavering. NYC PROPER, will see a foot of snow... I don't have the time to post the live product graphics. This STILL has a classic bomb signature. Not sure I understand the mood swings. Everything is coming together. Enjoy folks. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Do you like wind? As long as I don’t lose power, yeah… I’ve been kind of a wind weenie since Sandy happened when I was a kid (well not that im exactly old lol). I would take snow rates over wind though any day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The gfs was not even close with this evolution. What's the final outcome going to be anyway? It hasn't happened yet. Curious to see how the 18z euro handles this too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Intensewind002 said: As long as I don’t lose power, yeah… I’ve been kind of a wind weenie since Sandy happened when I was a kid (well not that im exactly old lol). I would take snow rates over wind though any day Yeah, you don't want to lose the juice, especially with the temperatures that are forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Gfs is worse lol time to nowcast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Keep chasing models and not comparing them to OBS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 As long as I don’t lose power, yeah… I’ve been kind of a wind weenie since Sandy happened when I was a kid (well not that im exactly old lol). I would take snow rates over wind though any dayJesus, “when I was a kid” in 2012.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Just because you're wrong in the right direction doesn't make you right. What if you're right in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Keep chasing models and not comparing them to OBS If you compare the 18z NAM with obs, the trough is essentially Neutral vs somewhat positive (on the model). As such, I would take the 18z and shift it West by 50 or so miles. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Gfs is worse lol time to nowcast But if it was better, it wouldn't be time to nowcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What if you're right in the right direction?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Gfs was better aloft 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs was better aloft Too bad we dont live at 20,000 feet 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs was better aloft No double low so there’s that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, psv88 said: Too bad we dont live at 20,000 feet ^this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Keep chasing models and not comparing them to OBS Are there particular things or locations we'd want to pay attention to get a sense of how this is evolving in real time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Too bad we dont live at 20,000 feet 20,000 feet controls the sfc though. What happens at the sfc is really controlled by what takes place at the upper levels, with rather rare exception. Edit - The biggest issue I have normally seen against this has to do with the time translate to the sfc. But, this lag is normally not that long. In this particular instance, it may actually make some changes regarding sensible weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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