wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Better then 00z was lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It might be time for me to use one of our remaining timeouts so that you guys can regroup because they way that people live and die with each model run is amazing. The players are still on the field and nothing says that this won't actually be more west than models are depicting. Could it be that the double barrel look is just that, a look and that possibly models ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY with the setup and that the lows do merge ? I think that is still on the table and IF it does the location will be key - East or West or meet in the middle ? The players are on the field and we are not far away from a nice solution for many of us even peeps like me to the North n West. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Lighting beginning to fire ENE off hatteras... building... (no way to load such high res. Imagery loops) Still, looks perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 to the left to the left WPC lowtrack update 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hi res nam looks nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks further east on the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z Saturday already a foot in the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18z is definitely not looking good, western half really cut down. far eastern LI and of course SE new england get hammered but its ugly for anyone west of those locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z versus 18z at 21z Saturday. Looks pretty similar east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Do not buy the low shredding like that when it's so consolidated early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18Z NAM better initially, than goes back to weird double low structure, still as is 6-12" for most of NYC metro verbatim, but only about 20-30 miles from 12" -18" (NJ coast & C/E LI) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshorekid Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'm up to hr 26 on the 18z NAM, and it appears that for hrs 22-26, the low sits parallel east of Montauk and either stalls or actually looks to retrograde back towards the coast. Central Suffolk on east looks to get blitzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe even the Poconos? 6 inches there would be a surprise Yeah exactly. Someone posted a graphic about subsidence over Sussex/Morris, I think that's the idea but with a second relative max behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nam looked a little more organized through hour 18 before eventually succumbing to the double barrel look which tugged the best snows east. Would like to see if other models especially the mesoscale models start to delay the double barrel look or eliminate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: Looks further east on the 18Z NAM. The 3K NAM looks like it cut way back NW of the city 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM cut back for just about everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Nam looked a little more organized through hour 18 before eventually succumbing to the double barrel look which tugged the best snows east. Would like to see if other models especially the mesoscale models start to delay the double barrel look or eliminate it. Been happening all morning. Have to take it seriously I think. Hopefully it just consolidates to the western low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The 3K NAM looks like it cut way back NW of the city Should that come to fruition, where will you be celebrating tomorrow? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We would have wanted that concentrated area of purple contours right up near the coast to see big snow. We get some decent lift near the city for a few hours but then eventually it moves NE with the low. Starting to think they should drop the warnings NW of the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I like 6-10 for the city, quickly dropping off west and especially in NW NJ. Westchester I like 6-10 and towards the 10 south and east. Fairfield County 8-14, more towards Bridgeport, and then that is where we pick up more. NW CT I think is in the 4-10 range. One thing is for certain, this storm is a pain in the a to the double s. I do not like this one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: We would have wanted that concentrated area of purple contours right up near the coast to see big snow. We get some decent lift near the city for a few hours but then eventually it moves NE with the low. Starting to think they should drop the warnings NW of the city. I would not be surprised to see 2-4 inches total, especially west of 287. There is going to be subsidence that I think the models are still underdoing. The new 3K NAM is now showing a minimal snowfall NW of the city 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 First glance the Nam looked like it was going to track the heavy precip right up the coast but the ocean low pulled the low towards it. That is the frustrating part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: Looks further east on the 18Z NAM. Double barrel low is ruining this opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 what a ****ing headache. the fact we are hours away from this and we still have alot of uncertainty is mind blowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: First glance the Nam looked like it was going to track the heavy precip right up the coast but the ocean low pulled the low towards it. That is the frustrating part. Yep. Been happening all morning, gotta hope it stays with the western low. Or its gonna be mediocre. Takes all the heavy banding an shoving east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hrdps, Rgem all looked great 12z, nam through 18z depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I mean I'm not that sad... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: what a ****ing headache. the fact we are hours away from this and we still have alot of uncertainty is mind blowing. It's getting clearer, just not how some of us want it to be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Been happening all morning. Have to take it seriously I think. Hopefully it just consolidates to the western low I know but it actually got rid of the double low for longer this run than last. Up to hour 18 there was an inch more snow as a result even though the "west" low (and the only low at this point) was centered slightly east to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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