JB_Wchstr Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:00 PM, forkyfork said: we'll probably still see jumps through the 6z runs Expand Are you expecting the models to lose the double-barrel stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:00 PM, forkyfork said: we'll probably still see jumps through the 6z runs Expand ya still thinking the same thing LOL... im sure you are but figured id ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:05 PM, SnowEMass said: Are you expecting the models to lose the double-barrel stuff? Expand i have no idea. it's the make or break feature for 12+ in the metro 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hopefully the RAP has a clue here. But it's obviously an outlier. UKMET definitely did come west again so that's good. GFS made some decent improvements aloft so I'd say we're hedging about even for 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 God this forum is dead with an impending snowstorm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:00 PM, forkyfork said: we'll probably still see jumps through the 6z runs Expand The recon data that is gathered later will go into the 0z runs tonight. Interesting how the GFS jumped last night at 0z after the data from yesterday’s flights were ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 As others have said, battle going on internally because of the double barrel lows. Need the energy to consolidate into one large storm. If that happens we will end up with something similar to what the 00z NAM had. If this doesn't happen and we get an elongated duel surface low than the 12"+ amounts will be delegated to Suffolk County, North and East and the wind threat will be much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:09 PM, forkyfork said: i have no idea. it's the make or break feature for 12+ in the metro Expand Based on historical president I just don’t see it happening that way. Every one of our classic super low pressure lows have had a single eye like feature im still going to go with 12” for nyc 18” Nassau and somewhere in Suffolk sees 30” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:18 PM, NJwx85 said: As others have said, battle going on internally because of the double barrel lows. Need the energy to consolidate into one large storm. If that happens we will end up with something similar to what the 00z NAM had. If this doesn't happen and we get an elongated duel surface low than the 12"+ amounts will be delegated to Suffolk County, North and East and the wind threat will be much lower. Expand Wouldn't that depend upon where the energy consolidates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:20 PM, larrye said: Wouldn't that depend upon where the energy consolidates? Expand It's a complex phase with multiple pieces and moving parts. The cleaner the phase the stronger the storm. It needs to come together perfectly for us to reach max potential. Boston and E LI has more wiggle room. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:54 PM, psv88 said: Not true. Ukie, GFS shifted west and RAP... Expand Yea but Ukie was already far east and RAP is out of range. My post wasn't really a give up post but more the constant model shifting back and forth is exhausting. I could see this overperforming easily for NYC Metro but could also see it busting badly so it's basically nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:15 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: God this forum is dead with an impending snowstorm Expand not many people are excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Lurker on this thread (originally from College Point Queens) taking a short break on a busy day out here at NWS Chicago. Have been thinking that the snowfall distribution may end up somewhat similar to February 2013 and late January 2015 (hopefully a hair west of that one). The models have been consistent in depicting the 700 mb fronto bisecting Long Island. You'd expect the heavy snow band to set up just west of the modeled f-gen band on the cold side of the f-gen maxima. In events like this with a lot of wind, one of the impediments to getting widespread Kuchera ratios (among multiple flaws with the methodology) is fracturing of the dendrites. Also you'll have some subsidence either side of the heaviest band. But then within that band, the Kuchera ratios should be attainable despite the wind. Assuming the mid-level fronto does intersect Long Island, would expect beefy totals under the band with 18"+ certainly possible, especially if residence time of the most intense banding can be maximized. Elsewhere you should have ratios at or a bit above climo (so figure 11-13:1) or so. 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:23 PM, Snowlover11 said: not many people are excited. Expand I think seeing that 6Z NAM run and then seeing the ones after was deflating honestly. This is definitely a nailbiter for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:29 PM, HVSnowLover said: I think seeing that 6Z NAM run and then seeing the ones after was deflating honestly. This is definitely a nailbiter for our area. Expand agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6Z NAM EVERYBODY'S COMING WEST BABY followed by 12 Z suite maybe not 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:23 PM, Snowlover11 said: not many people are excited. Expand Bad Juno memories, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:31 PM, romba said: 6Z NAM EVERYBODY'S COMING WEST BABY followed by 12 Z suite maybe not Expand We're inside 24hrs. The Western and Eastern most outliers are coming together for the likely outcome. We still have a small shot at a substantial shift in either direction tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So 6 + makes people sad ? How much snow do we have so far this winter??? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
203whiteout Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 3:42 PM, Sn0waddict said: If I get Juno’d again I’m gonna have to think hard about whether this is a hobby I want to continue in my life lol Expand Very similar pattern.. honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we get shafted here in SW CT bc The pattern is so similar to that when Juno happened. Let’s see where the bands set up. Models are now pretty much useless at least all but the short range models and even those are stupid bc at that point it’s better to just look outside and look at the radar lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:37 PM, MJO812 said: So 6 + makes people sad ? How much snow do we have so far this winter??? Expand This is probably not for this thread but to be honest I'd be more excited if it wasn't going to be 55 next Wed. 6 inches will be gone so fast in NYC. But I should learn to enjoy the moment more you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:37 PM, MJO812 said: So 6 + makes people sad ? How much snow do we have so far this winter??? Expand It's like making it to the playoffs and getting destroyed the first game 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:35 PM, NJwx85 said: We're inside 24hrs. The Western and Eastern most outliers are coming together for the likely outcome. We still have a small shot at a substantial shift in either direction tonight. Expand Yup, the double barrel feature might be legit at this point. Just not certain why they're sending more aircraft recon for tonight's 0Z runs so late in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:15 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: God this forum is dead with an impending snowstorm Expand This is the lull between the models being pretty much locked in and the beginning of the event. Not much to do at this point but wait and watch the satellite/radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Big Euro run about to start. Not so much worried about the placement on the surface low. Just hoping for a clean phase and consolidated system instead of a double barrel low. If that happens the rest will fall in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:41 PM, romba said: Yup, the double barrel feature might be legit at this point. Just not certain why they're sending more aircraft recon for tonight's 0Z runs so late in the game.... Expand Because the set up is incredibly fragile. A 1 hr difference in a vorticity is the entire ball game here for some folks. You are likely to see this bounce back W at 18z for the NAM. It is so incredibly delicate. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:41 PM, romba said: Yup, the double barrel feature might be legit at this point. Just not certain why they're sending more aircraft recon for tonight's 0Z runs so late in the game.... Expand Because... the atmosphere and conditions are primed for extreme explosive growth over the next several hours. This storm is likely to provide many surprises. (Both high and low busts in different regions) Many people are still working and may count the storm a bust if they see nothing when traveling home. That is likely not to be the case... the models are pointless, mostly at this point... Real-time obs and data interpolation is. What is scientifically gathered from this system is still useful in future events, even if it doesn't (it prob will) produce what you expect. Not trying to be rude. That is the actual answer. Research and data collection now, helps models and scientific interpolation and predictions later... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:46 PM, USCG RS said: Because the set up is incredibly fragile. A 1 hr difference in a vorticity is the entire ball game here for some folks. You are likely to see this bounce back W at 18z for the NAM. It is so incredibly delicate. Expand Thanks. I work in oceanic sciences and the same is true on a different spacial and temporal scale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Been offline, mood seems awfully dour in here. Scared to go back and see what I missed. I’m just east of the Sag and still under a BW. Hopefully it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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