SleetStormNJ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Have to avoid getting sucked into run to run windshield wiper effect. We need to start measuring model pinpoints and actual observations. No bets are off the table. Seen so many big storms in past with surprises in terms of track, banding, gravity wave enhancement, dry-slots, winds. One thing impressive regardless is the modeling in almost all cases are projecting some serious sustained winds and gusts for coastal areas - NJ/LI and out to RI/Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that. I know alot of weather enthusiasts who don't take the 6z or 18z runs seriously for that matter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that. It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Thundersnow on the Forks or SE Massachusetts probably a good possibility with the cold air and the ocean “warmth” converging, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro is now the best look of any model besides the SREF plumes. Would sign up for a euro 6z look in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think 6-10 within the city limits is a good forecast. Nassau/Suffolk border on east should be in line for an awesome event 12”+. Us up here In the great northwest should be in the 3-6” range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM in reality without the double barrel probable confusion would have been EURO/SREF like, I think that is resolved next model run...even still not a bad storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup... It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago. It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, snywx said: I think 6-10 within the city limits is a good forecast. Nassau/Suffolk border on east should be in line for an awesome event 12”+. Us up here In the great northwest should be in the 3-6” range. I have 1” new this morning and was forecast to get 1/2” for the entire day. Big time fluff factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Ratios should be good with this. I think people are underestimating that even with the wind factor. I could see 15:1 in this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, snywx said: I think 6-10 within the city limits is a good forecast. Nassau/Suffolk border on east should be in line for an awesome event 12”+. Us up here In the great northwest should be in the 3-6” range. I would expect Binghamton to toss out an advisory for me by this afternoon’s cycle. Low end warning event may still be in the cards for us, rest of 12z and 18z will be telling. Very good ratios will pay dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: I would expect Binghamton to toss out an advisory for me by this afternoon’s cycle. Low end warning event may still be in the cards for us, rest of 12z and 18z will be telling. Very good ratios will pay dividends. I’m only expecting 3-4” here. Gonna have to be east of the river to really cash in or increase those odds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jt17 said: It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low It's just one run though and considering the wild swings of this model, it shouldn't be taken seriously even the day of the event. In other words, don't get too high or too low on any one run, look at the overall trends. I saw the 6z nam and thought it looked nice but also knew that it was just one of those "nam" things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I am expecting 9-15 here at the Jersey shore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We should be looking at SERFS and HRRR, not the global models because the storm is basically here. Already sticking outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: It's just one run though and considering the wild swings of this model, it shouldn't be taken seriously even the day of the event. In other words, don't get too high or too low on any one run, look at the overall trends. I saw the 6z nam and thought it looked nice but also knew that it was just one of those "nam" things. I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 0-40” still on the table 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago. It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK. Exactly. The NAM has been all over the place. Euro/GFS blend is the way to go now, and they are very similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, guinness77 said: Thundersnow on the Forks or SE Massachusetts probably a good possibility with the cold air and the ocean “warmth” converging, no? There will be tons of thunder snow out there. The dynamics are incredible. Hopefully cantori sets up in a good spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I would relax over the NAM. Just like you can't dive in when it shows 20" west of NYC, you can't dive into it now. Let's see what other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TriPol said: We should be looking at SERFS and HRRR, not the global models because the storm is basically here. Already sticking outside. The snow follow now isn’t associated with our storm to the south. This is the cold front bringing in the cold air for our storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro) I wouldn't worry unless other models follow the same look (would like to see that double barrel low disappear) but really, we're getting down to nowcast time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I would relax over the NAM. Just like you can't dive in when it shows 20" west of NYC, you can't dive into it now. Let's see what other models show. The latest RGEM also ticked east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: The latest RGEM also ticked east. Is there a Double barrel low as well??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: The latest RGEM also ticked east. How bad? Post it please if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sticking pretty close to numbers I put out yesterday morning. NYC/Immediate metro: Yesterday 4-8" -> Now going 6 -10" Far NW NJ: Yesterday 1-3" -> Now going 2-4" West of I95 8" tapering to 4" starting along and north of 80 and West of 287 South and East of I95: Holding with 12-18" with the 18" amounts closest to the coast and central and eastern L.I. In general ratios 12:1 - 13:1 give or take. Maybe 15:1 northern and western edges of snow shield. Any changes will come from nowcasting as event unfolds. Currently very light snow with about .10" new snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ratios should be good with this. I think people are underestimating that even with the wind factor. I could see 15:1 in this setup Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Is there a Double barrel low as well??? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, mob1 said: How bad? Post it please if you can. Don’t have it to post, but I believe it’s similar to GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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