Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Is there really that much of a gap in terms of storm placement between the models? Remember the NAM led the way with JAN 2016 too, it generally does the best with the biggest storms. Personally, I need the euro at 6z onboard with the NAM solution to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Personally, I need the euro at 6z onboard with the NAM solution to take it seriously. I'd wait for the 12z runs to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well either NAM off its meds, or GFS unable to cope with bipolar disorder? That would not be all that big a deal for many places apart from se MA. I don't pretend to know which of these is closer to reality, RGEM suggests GFS is but maybe Euro will have other ideas. Hope they reach a consensus before the storm actually begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Roger Smith said: Well either NAM off its meds, or GFS unable to cope with bipolar disorder? That would not be all that big a deal for many places apart from se MA. I don't pretend to know which of these is closer to reality, RGEM suggests GFS is but maybe Euro will have other ideas. Hope they reach a consensus before the storm actually begins. Does the GFS have the 30-40 inch snowfall in SE MA? I mean either way it's a historic event, the only difference is who it's historic for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Gfs chasing convection still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snow is rapidly breaking out across south central PA with the overrunning. Are we going to get an Obs thread set up for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaquanweb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Gfs chasing convection still are there resources so learn what this means ? and understanding weather forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno STATEMENT FROM BERNIE RAYNO (LOL, I always wanted to write that): I have seen this many times in the past. You ride the NAM on this, it isn't perfect and will likely be overdone in some areas, but overall it will out perform the GFS and EURO. Twitter live at 5:45 am. 4:41 AM · Jan 28, 2022·Twitter Web App Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 ..." be careful what you wish for" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 rayno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This is one of the most amazing 00z EPS loops I've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 RAP at 9z which goes out to 51 hours was nuts as well, similar to the NAM but 30 miles east with the heavy snow. For what that's worth-probably not much since it's a short range model. Hi-res RGEM got a little weaker/further east from last run. Models may still be having issues with the possible double barreled low and working with convection (doesn't mean it isn't real or hallucination). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 RAP 9z. No I'm not posting the inflated Kuchera map. You can find that yourselves. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 For we in the north and west, impressive moves in the most recent runs, yet the inner weenie screaming inside can’t help but notice the 20” drop off from NYC out to Bridgewater on the NAM. I mean, that’s about 25 miles as the crow flies; highlights the sharp-cut off that has been modeled for days. Oh well you guys East are going to get crushed!!! I want to see a “mother of god” post; it’s been too long. ….back to containing the weenie thoughts internally. Do you think we get plowable snow in Morris County? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Upton has 8-12 inches for my area That's a good snowfall forecast right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just a hunch. But I think the double barrel low is bogus. Might not be though. Hopefully today will get a little clearer with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Will the Nam be correct? Maybe, it often shines right about now. I would play it a lot more conservatively. Hopefully we reach more consensus at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: This is one of the most amazing 00z EPS loops I've seen. Still a spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Will the Nam be correct? Maybe, it often shines right about now. I would play it a lot more conservatively. Hopefully we reach more consensus at 12z. Hopefully the double low is bogus and the low near the coast takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Holy shit. That nam run was insane 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Currently in Cancun with the fam which is of course great but bummed I'm missing this! Even with the event less than 24h away, this still has potential for something huge in NYC metro, hope you guys get clobbered! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'm still wondering if the double barrel low is bogus. If so then the storm will shift more west Euro is about to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Big west shift on the 3k Nam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still wondering if the double barrel low is bogus. If so then the storm will shift more west Euro is about to start Isn't this the type of feature mesoscale models are supposed to figure out better than the global models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Isn't this the type of feature mesoscale models are supposed to figure out better than the global models? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Big west shift on the 3k Nam Jersey Shore and LI Burial! Not the biggest 3k fan, but the trend we wanted hasn't flipped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Anyone have a start time for ANY snow that I should be concerned about as I am driving home from Western NY soon and its a 5 hour drive--Thanks in Advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anyone have a start time for ANY snow that I should be concerned about as I am driving home from Western NY soon and its a 5 hour drive--Thanks in Advance It will be snowing all day ( snow showers ) but the storm will not be here until overnight tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, dseagull said: Jersey Shore and LI Burial! Not the biggest 3k fan, but the trend we wanted hasn't flipped. Have ya seen the regular Nam? NYC and NJ disappear for years under those totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 From OKX AFD: Have converted all winter weather watches to warnings, and issued a winter weather advisory for Orange County, NY with all this in mind. In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzard headlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the areas that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday afternoon with this system. Winds will also be an issue as the system nears the area as strong northeast flow dominates as the system deepens in our vicinity. Gusts to 35-45 mph are likely for a period Saturday afternoon, especially for the coastal areas, where occasionally higher gusts are possible. So near blizzard conditions are possible, especially near the coast, where winds/gusts will be most frequent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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