LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: 46” over my house… I’ll never see a more beautiful model run in my life Snowman19 isn't just going to take a vacation from the forum if this verified, he'll likely leave the country for the rest of the winter lol. The only time I've seen a map like this was for the Blizzard of 1888, except the 40 plus inch totals were then up in CT and upstate NY 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: 46” over my house… I’ll never see a more beautiful model run in my life Cut these totals in half if you want to be realistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The only time I've seen a map like this was for the Blizzard of 1888, except the 40 plus inch totals were then up in CT and upstate NY I'm not sure any of the models were running 4DVAR back in 1888 but I could see the 00z suite back then showing 40inch totals.. jk jk jk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wow... what a horrible night of on and off sleep... happy to wake up to a blizzard warning for barnegat, nj... this storm has been incredible to watch transform. In 24 hours A LOT has changed. Gotta charge all the cameras up and get the generators ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Cut these totals in half if you want to be realistic. 100% right,also stronger winds means lower Ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I can't take this serious yet, at lest not the Kuchera totals of the 6Z NAM but wow, the changes on every model tonight are unreal. NYC overtook Boston on this run and I get over 20 inches in the HV. Can't wait until I wake up and can tell people on the weather forums about the dream I had. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: Cut these totals in half if you want to be realistic. Or just go with 10:1 in which case the 46 magically becomes 30 so 3" of liquid on the Jersey Shore as snow wow, this is what Jan 2016 was for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I can't take this serious yet, at lest not the Kuchera totals of the 6Z NAM but wow, the changes on every model tonight are unreal. NYC overtook Boston on this run and I get over 20 inches in the HV. Can't wait until I wake up and can tell people on the weather forums about the dream I had. So basically the reverse of 2004 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z RGEM is slightly east. Later closing off of the 500 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 55 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: The Nam was worth waking up for. Amazing look. Everything shifts. 962 off Atlantic City south of Block Island. Good Lord. Super Bomb. Been waiting for this one since 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 That NAM is nice to look at but it's known to do these wacky things. RGEM actually looks a little weaker/SE with the precip at 6z but looks impressive aloft. That NAM run is an absolute thing of beauty though, good lord. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The nam is the furthest west. It needs support if it's going to be taken seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: 6z RGEM is slightly east. Later closing off of the 500 mb low. I actually need that to slap me back into reality. I was beginning to think that 6z NAM Kuchera could verify. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 nams always playing with our hearts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I actually need that to slap me back into reality. I was beginning to think that 6z NAM Kuchera could verify. Yeah the NAM being right would be insane but nothing else is as far west or aggressive so it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The one positive to take from the 6z RGEM is it got rid of the double barrel low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If some of these short-term models become high confidence, NWS may want to begin changing their discussion drastically within the Blizzard Warning discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Wow that’s incredible for sref ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebythec Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Yaz said: Near 70 mph gusts Jersey coast Blizzard Warning Issued: January 28 at 3:23AM EST Expiring: January 29 at 7:00PM EST Urgency: ExpectedStatus: Actual Areas affected:Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Eastern Monmouth; Ocean; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z GFS has a double barrel low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 33 minutes ago, dseagull said: Super Bomb. Been waiting for this one since 2010. Jan 2016 wasn't good enough eh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z GFS at h5 is pretty much the same as 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Woke up early to a literal NAM nuke on Toms River, which feels like a fever dream. Illustrates how much any westward shift at this point can up the ante for us. I've been expecting 12-18 or so, but perhaps I can be bribed upward if that NAM keeps insisting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z GFS is about the same as 0z. Tiny differences which are noise to me. NAM has to be regarded as an outlier here and off its meds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, Nibor said: Yeah the NAM being right would be insane but nothing else is as far west or aggressive so it's an outlier. Is there really that much of a gap in terms of storm placement between the models? Remember the NAM led the way with JAN 2016 too, it generally does the best with the biggest storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 For we in the north and west, impressive moves in the most recent runs, yet the inner weenie screaming inside can’t help but notice the 20” drop off from NYC out to Bridgewater on the NAM. I mean, that’s about 25 miles as the crow flies; highlights the sharp-cut off that has been modeled for days. Oh well you guys East are going to get crushed!!! I want to see a “mother of god” post; it’s been too long. ….back to containing the weenie thoughts internally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: 6z GFS is about the same as 0z. Tiny differences which are noise to me. NAM has to be regarded as an outlier here and off its meds. How much of a difference is there? 20 miles? Also, see JAN 2016, the NAM led the way and has proven to the best model with the biggest storms. We just have to get within its deadly range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: 6z GFS is about the same as 0z. Tiny differences which are noise to me. NAM has to be regarded as an outlier here and off its meds. I think we may have hit the western wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Nibor said: I think we may have hit the western wall. Maybe. Some time still for minor trends but the NAM is so ridiculously more developed with the 500mb low and how far west it pushes everything that it doesn't seem feasible. I wouldn't trust it until other models get on board. I could see the Euro doing another 25 mile shift or something but not to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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