eduggs Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:38 AM, Rjay said: "Tucked" is such an ambiguous term. Tucked into tje Jersey shore vs tucked in south of Montauk creates 2 total different outcomes in a storm (as you're well aware of). The Euro and some of the eps members were tucked south of LI a few times. Expand So true. I think of it as being tucked into the armpit between NJ and LI. But like you say it's relative to location of interest and also previous runs. Funny thing is we use the SLP as a reference point for model shifts, but the SLP doesn't even generate precipitation. The track and evolution of lift and moisture (e.g, PVA and 700mb RH) determine precipitation. But we barely look at those other features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:42 AM, Blizzardo said: I bit too far out for NYC... imo Expand Came west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hrdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM, EC, UK, CMC actually all in pretty good agreement at this point. With a large QPF gradient, small shifts in the precipitation shield will have a big impact on totals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 UKIE historically has had slight progressive bias with monster lows like this below 980 so it fits about with that with most other models now somewhat left of it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:45 AM, eduggs said: So true. I think of it as being tucked into the armpit between NJ and LI. But like you say it's relative to location of interest and also previous runs. Funny thing is we use the SLP as a reference point for model shifts, but the SLP doesn't even generate precipitation. The track and evolution of lift and moisture (e.g, PVA and 700mb RH) determine precipitation. But we barely look at those other features. Expand I look at them lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:47 AM, MJO812 said: Uh Expand homie, it's a joke - compare the 2 maps side by side. They're very similar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZNSTATED Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:47 AM, Rjay said: Hrdps Expand Near the end of that run is that depicting super heavy snow in pink or sleet, I'm assuming snow But that is one mind blowing run wow Right on William Floyd Pkwy in Shirley and no work on Saturday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:47 AM, Rjay said: Hrdps Expand There's purple intensity colors over me my God that's like 5 inches an hour stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:14 AM, Blizzardo said: And not a small bomb... Expand On 1/28/2022 at 4:16 AM, Rjay said: Here's your 970mb (when it's up in NE though) Expand On 1/28/2022 at 4:16 AM, Jt17 said: How so? sounds like higher numbers lol Expand I definitely misread that. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:51 AM, ZNSTATED said: Near the end of that run is that depicting super heavy snow in pink or sleet, I'm assuming snow But that is one mind blowing run wow Right on William Floyd Pkwy in Shirley and no work on Saturday Expand Heavy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:52 AM, USCG RS said: I definitely misread that. My apologies. Expand All good, model mayhem and all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:26 AM, jm1220 said: Or over Sayreville, NJ like for Boxing Day 2010 lol. I'd still say the best chance for it is central/eastern Suffolk County but there'll be plenty of heavy snow west of it. Expand The two highest on Boxing Day were Brick and Elizabeth, at opposite ends of the state, though Brick considers itself central NJ ( it's south as far as I'm concerned ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:54 AM, Jt17 said: All good, model mayhem and all Expand Yeah... That and I'm distracted with way too many emails right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Such glorious looking runs for LI to ECT to BOS. Gonna be some serious banding in there somewhere. There are also hints of an outer deform band from coastal NJ through NYC to WCT. If this materializes, it could kind of pivot in place on Saturday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 2:54 AM, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. Expand I can’t tell you how sorry I am to hear that. I know that you’ve been around these communities for a long time. You’re in my thoughts, FWIW. Wishing you all the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:41 AM, Jt17 said: UKIE on an island by itself Expand Yes and that island is named Labrador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:59 AM, winterwarlock said: Expand I saw this map and it doesnt match up with qpf... has almost a inch here but only 5 inches of snow something is screwy with it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:59 AM, winterwarlock said: Expand Better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 I can't believe @wdrag isn't here for this. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 A little excited for my incoming blizzard warning. 6 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 2:54 AM, Joe4alb said: My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. Expand Sorry to hear this. I hope he helps bring an amazing snowfall to you!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 @patrick05. Where are you for this storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:12 AM, Rjay said: A little excited for my incoming blizzard warning. Expand Think we'll get it back here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:15 AM, LibertyBell said: Think we'll get it back here too? Expand Nassau and Suffolk would be my guess but it wouldn't shock me if it were just Suffolk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:16 AM, Rjay said: Nassau and Suffolk would be my guess but it wouldn't shock me if it were just Suffolk. Expand Probably just Suffolk. All of Suffolk is locked in for 12+ on all models now. Nassau still on the bubble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:19 AM, psv88 said: Probably just Suffolk. All of Suffolk is locked in for 12+ on all models now. Nassau still on the bubble Expand you dont need 12+ for a Blizzard Warning. Technically speaking, JFK experiences some of the highest wind gusts on the island. But besides that, I've seen most models depicting around 10 inches or so for JFK, there's a gradient between Central Park and JFK just like there was in December 2009 (where NYC had 10 inches and JFK had 15 inches.) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:09 AM, Rjay said: I can't believe @wdrag isn't here for this. Expand Ive asked a few times the past couple days where he is... i hope hes ok... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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