HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It is encouraging that some of our most well respected posters think the potential here is still greater than what the surface reflections on models are currently showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: That looks like a walrus getting fed at the zoo. Are you hungry maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said: How much of a shift? we're near an inflection point so not much 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you guys need to realize any more shifts like we saw today and the blizzard option is on the table for most of the subforum Oh boy you're gonna get the weenies riled up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lots of westward lean on the GEFS. We really needed to see a favourable shift with the GFS and we got it even if it's not quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Torch said: If my memory serves me, it was he who was the first to call the Boxing Day Blizzard on Christmas Eve. hope history repeats. You’re as good as your last trade is my rule of thumb and he was dead on for our last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Individual members are lackluster to say the least as far as totals. Only one member is notable for bringing heavier snows into SNJ/CNJ....the rest are meh. Just pointing it out that the GFS has a ways to go to catch up to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islandersguy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Can someone post around what times the next important model runs will be happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, North and West said: Any consensus yet west of the city? I’m trying to figure out if I’m using my leafblower for this or to break out the sunglasses. . Check out the mesos (HRRR/RAP) for tomorrow for northern NJ. If this overrunning happens you will be pushing snow from your driveway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Oh boy you're gonna get the weenies riled up. we are all weenies now. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Islandersguy said: Can someone post around what times the next important model runs will be happening? 18Z ECM : 6:50 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Islandersguy said: Can someone post around what times the next important model runs will be happening? 18z Euro at 645pm. That the 0z suite starts with the NAM around 845pm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hey now 18z GGEM 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'm feeling good about this one. the trends are undeniable, and the GEFS/GFS finally caved in a big way. coupled with the nice shifts from the NAM/RGEM as well as the 12z EPS, I am becoming increasingly optimistic for a more high-end solution for the metro as of now, I agree with Upton, around 6-10" looks good. but the potential for more is rearing its head a bit more now 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I'm feeling good about this one. the trends are undeniable, and the GEFS/GFS finally caved in a big way. coupled with the nice shifts from the NAM/RGEM as well as the 12z EPS, I am becoming increasingly optimistic for a more high-end solution for the metro as of now, I agree with Upton, around 6-10" looks good. but the potential for more is rearing its head a bit more now Been saying this a while: It's coming. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Been saying this a while: It's coming. Yep. It's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Hey now 18z GGEM 50 miles west and the majority of the subforum would erupt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yep. It's on. You are a lock for 18" IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Given how far NW they've now extended Watches they must think ratios will be pretty good on the Western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: You are a lock for 18" IMO You're not going to do too bad yourself. Time to get the snowblower and liquor cabinet in order. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Don’t see how costal jersey nyc east isn’t in a blizzard warning by tomorrow morning. In fact I’d bet on it we easily will hit blizzard criteria 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, psv88 said: You are a lock for 18" IMO I’m thinking 8-12” for our nape of the neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 News12 going 6-9" for nassau, 9-12" western suffolk, 12-18" Central suffolk and east, up to 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: You're not going to do too bad yourself. Time to get the snowblower and liquor cabinet in order. ..what about the "stall" or "loop" that was being mentioned?..alot of the future casts show the snow shield booking east pretty quickly..not to be picky or anything..just wondering your thoughts on that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Don’t see how costal jersey nyc east isn’t in a blizzard warning by tomorrow morning. In fact I’d bet on it we easily will hit blizzard criteria I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Are SREFs not cool enough these days to entertain during intermission? Yes, I realize this is from 15Z, but I haven't seen any SREFs yet, so I'm just reminding y'all there are more places where you can break your refresh button. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Don’t see how costal jersey nyc east isn’t in a blizzard warning by tomorrow morning. In fact I’d bet on it we easily will hit blizzard criteria Eh, you need visibilities below 1/4 mile for 3 straight hours and 35 mph winds, that's not gonna happen absent a massive shift west. The twin forks could do it, but west of central suffolk i dont see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NWS has me at 8-14 inches. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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