NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS caves. Closing off East of Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 not sure what the heck was going on with surface map on GFS but overall that was an awesome upper level trend in our favor! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well, some definite improvements on this GFS run in terms of the precip being more robust on the western flank but the low takes a sizeable jump northeast from 48-54 hours unlike the other models which are slower east of L.I. I don't know if that was low movement or if it chased the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, jdj5211 said: not sure what the heck was going on with surface map on GFS but overall that was an awesome upper level trend in our favor! It's sloppy, just like the Euro. Hopefully the 00z runs tonight have a better clue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think mesoscale models might soon be able to help us sort out this convection sloppiness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Very large move with the GFS to essentially meet the other models at this point, now just a matter of how clean the storm is or more strung out...but snow is coming... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs trending towards sharpening up that trough. Last 6 runs of doing that. This is good. This is very good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS finally gets warning snows into all of suffolk county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So the whole model suite basically shifted west and most seem to produce deeper LP. I believe that might be called... a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: interesting that GFS has no overrunning snow out ahead of the storm like the NAM and others show.... Thats very much a mesoscale feature...the GFS is still a bit low grid to see that 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I bet GEFS has some goodies from its ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jt17 said: So the whole model suite basically shifted west and most seem to produce deeper LP. I believe that might be called... a trend Ticks west to me. Still not that excited until I see any models throwing an inch of liquid back to the city but pretty confidence we are getting a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 you guys need to realize any more shifts like we saw today and the blizzard option is on the table for most of the subforum 22 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreekWeatherGod95 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: you guys need to realize any more shifts like we saw today and the blizzard option is on the table for most of the subforum How much of a shift? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 In limited hindsight at this point it was best to go with the Euro last several days because ensemble support was so strong and the model overall was consistent except for rather minor shifts, at least that was my reason for favoring it over the GFS. Would have been pretty rare for the EURO to do a complete cave with that kind of ensemble support. One could say the GFS has support from its ensembles, and it did but despite some recent shortcomings with the EURO it is still a superior model in my opinion and the skill scores prove that out. EURO and CMC are both ahead of the GFS in skill scores. Granted the OP EURO had some BIG solutions for NJ/NYC and they have been tempered as we get closer to the event but the overall signal from the EURO was far better than the GFS. That is assuming things remain on track next 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said: How much of a shift? Small. Very small shifts. H5 has been trending beautfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gefs shifted west 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 hours ago, USCG RS said: You work with NYC OEM correct? Maybe not for them.. but hand in hand, no? 17 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: Might be a good day to call out sick! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreekWeatherGod95 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: Small. Very small shifts. H5 has been trending beautfully Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Mitchel Volk said: Overall the last few runs except the GFS has been amazing consistent maybe a shift of a few miles but not much. So it will be interesting to see if they continue this or start a shift in a direction the next few runs. The cutoff is so intense, where ISP may see 18” while northern Orange County get very little with the city on the edge. Any little shift will make a huge difference especially at 500MB for the city. Right now I’m thinking 6-12” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Tick tick 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you guys need to realize any more shifts like we saw today and the blizzard option is on the table for most of the subforum When FF Hutton talks, people listen 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Don't think the gfs is done trending. It's been incrementally getting there for several runs now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Upton is discounting how far east gfs and it's products are. Blending everything non gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
72bundy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Seven years almost to the day of the Snowmageddon that shut down New Jersey yet never really snowed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 How about this trend from the GEFS. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Upton is discounting how far east gfs and it's products are. Blending everything non gfs These words... they haunt me from a past winter... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 That looks like a walrus getting fed at the zoo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: How about this trend from the GEFS. That would be awesome if we get the closed low just a little NW of there. I couldn't care less what crappy GFS surface reflection would be. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Upton is discounting how far east gfs and it's products are. Blending everything non gfs smart move 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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