wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:28 PM, snowman19 said: Another run confirming this is not a big deal NW of NYC. Long Island and eastern NE get crushed however Expand Rockland and Westchester would get 6 inches on that run. The last time I looked they were N and W of NYC. Please stop posting. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam wasn't chasing the convection low . This was really close to something big for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:23 PM, USCG RS said: BOOM Expand Also, like you have been saying ignore the snow maps/depicted branding. With that much of a monster in that location amounts SHOULD be way higher across the board. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:35 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Rockland and Westchester would get 6 inches on that run the last time I looked they were N and W of NYC. Please stop posting. Expand Thank you .. I felt like saying the same thing 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:35 PM, MJO812 said: Nam wasn't chasing the convection low . This was really close to something big for NYC. Expand Don't look at the snow maps and banding. The location and strength of that low means more snow than what is show. NW areas need to keep an eye too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I don't see much to change my initial thinking; 3-6 for my area, maybe a tad more, but this is very much like the Feb 2013 storm; close but no cigar. But we'll be happy to at least be somewhat in the game. Folks not far from here are going to get a huge event. I will live vicariously through them as I spend ten minutes blowing the 6 inches from my driveway.....and that's ok. Still time for a complete bust out here I guess. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Don't look at the snow maps and banding. The location and strength of that low means more snow than what is show. NW areas need to keep an eye too. Expand Agree - this run had a better track and intensity than the qpf output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Don't look at the snow maps and banding. The location and strength of that low means more snow than what is show. NW areas need to keep an eye too. Expand Verbatim, if it begins bombing out at the benchmark or slightly inside, that precip field has to be a little underdone. Fun run to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Close to 4 feet West of Boston. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:28 PM, snowman19 said: Another run confirming this is not a big deal NW of NYC. Long Island and eastern NE get crushed however Expand looks very Jan 6-7 2018 ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:39 PM, NJwx85 said: Close to 4 feet West of Boston. Expand Epic storm for them possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:39 PM, NJwx85 said: Close to 4 feet West of Boston. Expand Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:41 PM, SnoSki14 said: Epic storm for them possible Expand They are going to get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Any worries about the mesos mostly wanting no part in this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:28 PM, snowman19 said: Another run confirming this is not a big deal NW of NYC. Long Island and eastern NE get crushed however Expand Confirming? Please take a close look at the eps. You'll see how close this is to an entire subforum smoke job. There's 2 clear camps and I have no idea which one is right. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NWS hoisting warnings in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:40 PM, Brian5671 said: looks very Jan 6-7 2018 ish Expand I think we have a VERY good shot at getting crushed here. Remember NEMO heavy amounts were supposed to be east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:42 PM, MJO812 said: They are going to get crushed Expand We may too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:44 PM, EastonSN+ said: We may too. Expand They have a better chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 recon missions just starting, pacific and Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:44 PM, EastonSN+ said: I think we have a VERY good shot at getting crushed here. Remember NEMO heavy amounts were supposed to be east. Expand yep and that became a nowcast as this might. Euro and NAM honing in on a double barrelled low now-we need the left low to take over vs the right one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:44 PM, MJO812 said: They have a better chance Expand Well yeah, but I just want to emphasize to the forum that we are no way out of this. That NAM run would have smoked us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:28 PM, crossbowftw3 said: Think this could get pulled back enough for folks like @snywxto sneak a 2-4/3-6 event? Anything helps with such high ratios Expand This will be a nice 1-3" pack refresher for us up here in the NW. Im perfectly content with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I just want to point out that for all the hysterics this morning and all the excitement now this is modeled as the same storm: A major snowstorm that New York City catches the western edge of if it’s lucky and models are correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If it sticks to the western low an cosolidates there. It's a crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:45 PM, Brian5671 said: yep and that became a nowcast as this might. Euro and NAM honing in on a double barrelled low now-we need the left low to take over vs the right one Expand this pretty much is guaranteed to be a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Atlantic City may break its Jan monthly record 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Don't look at the snow maps and banding. The location and strength of that low means more snow than what is show. NW areas need to keep an eye too. Expand Based on the 700mb features it makes sense to me where the heavy snow bands would be located at least. It would start over central to eastern Suffolk and then obliterate their way up into E CT into MA. Good snow would make it back to NYC but not the death band stuff. It looks like Juno 2015 pretty much. 1/4/18 had a similar track/upper air features and may have a similar evolution in the end. BTW, don't look at the 3k NAM. Total dud pretty much. Incredible how fickle this all is. Fingers crossed that these tucked in, wrapped up models win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:51 PM, jm1220 said: Based on the 700mb features it makes sense to me where the heavy snow bands would be located at least. It would start over central to eastern Suffolk and then obliterate their way up into E CT into MA. Good snow would make it back to NYC but not the death band stuff. It looks like Juno 2015 pretty much. 1/4/18 had a similar track/upper air features and may have a similar evolution in the end. BTW, don't look at the 3k NAM. Total dud pretty much. Incredible how fickle this all is. Fingers crossed that these tucked in, wrapped up models win out. Expand This is Juno but 40 miles further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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