Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Still got the double barrel low. The models are jumping to the eastern low. I guess that's real. An mocking this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Again most models are still showing this to be a decent storm for NYC and eastern metro. This will likely bring NYC up to the season average for the date, which is pretty good seeing where we are this season. People need to stop acting like this won't be a storm unless we get 2+ feet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This looks like the usual GFS last minute cave...at the same time I don't think this will be a case where we see the PA/NJ border end up getting 10-15 inches as we've seen in some prior cases like this. I would say NYC ends up around 8 in the end so maybe something near the NAM/RGEM idea now 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 3:55 PM, MJO812 said: Slightly better Expand It's much less than people are making it out to be. I'm surprised. I've been calling out people for overemphasizing negative shifts more than they actually were. I'm going to stick with my laurels even in the opposite direction, because this was a tiny wobble on the GFS. Not a shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 3:56 PM, psv88 said: Not enough of a change on the GFS. Euro and GFS not all that different anymore. Expand Gfs better this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 3:59 PM, Franklin0529 said: Still got the double barrel low. The models are jumping to the eastern low. I guess that's real. An mocking this up Expand We don't know if that's even real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 3:57 PM, kat5hurricane said: Time is starting to run out. The big snow idea for those west of Suffolk is starting to diminish IMO. Expand Simply not true. Snow doesn't start for 36 hours and both 12z Nam and RGEM had decent amounts in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:01 PM, MJO812 said: We don't know if that's even real Expand Been showing up on every model. Gotta be real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 3:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: This looks like the usual GFS last minute cave...at the same time I don't think this will be a case where we see the PA/NJ border end up getting 10-15 inches as we've seen in some prior cases like this. I would say NYC ends up around 8 in the end so maybe something near the NAM/RGEM idea now Expand For us far west and N/W folks I can’t see much more than 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Stinks because we're so close to something much bigger. A slightly faster phase would make a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gefs coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 No one sees the improvements at H5 on the GFS? No one at all? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:04 PM, wthrmn654 said: And your located where? Expand NYC - queens. The heart of the forum. Where the gfs went from .6 to .8 inches of snow. It didn't cave. (Yet). I'm in the camp of the cmc/euro/nam anyway. I just don't get why anybody is pumping up this gfs run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 baby tick, but again the gfs was way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 can I ask how are people confident this is so much better when its barely more west than it was before. Hasnt there been pretty good consistency with the GFS keeping this east, sure a few ticks east but why are people thinking its meaningful, it still appears nothing like the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs coming out Expand Ok now this is something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs coming out Expand looks like they are clustered more northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:07 PM, Snowlover11 said: baby tick, but again the gfs was way east. Expand This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:03 PM, Franklin0529 said: Been showing up on every model. Gotta be real Expand there was a storm a few winters ago where that happened and then at the last minute they all lost it. I don’t remember which it was but the forecasts all busted too low as a result of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Latest Snow Totals Outlooks: Thurs AM. GFS and Ensemble Trace National Blend of Models 2"-4" EURO 4" NAM 8" CMC 15" but Ensemble is much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:07 PM, winterwarlock said: can I ask how are people confident this is so much better when its barely more west than it was before. Hasnt there been pretty good consistency with the GFS keeping this east, sure a few ticks east but why are people thinking its meaningful, it still appears nothing like the other models... Expand you got to look at more than just the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:01 PM, MJO812 said: We don't know if that's even real Expand It is very real. The issue it is showing is the lack of a clean phase. You want this to consolidate much more quickly. If the Northern vort phases in/consolidates and/or the trough tightens a bit, then this double barrel low either does not show up or quickly consolidates to the westernmost low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:02 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Simply not true. Snow doesn't start for 36 hours and both 12z Nam and RGEM had decent amounts in NYC. Expand The "Big" snow idea is diminishing. I think 4-8 is a reasonable call for western L.I. on westward. The 12+ inch possibility seems to be waning more and more with every set of runs. A little disappointing considering the potential of this storm but this was always a thread the needle event so we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Take the bickering and arguing elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, USCG RS said: No one sees the improvements at H5 on the GFS? No one at all? Expand Love you posts today! This is so close to something special. Even if GEM and EURO nudge east with the goods, it does not mean a direct hit here is out of the picture. I would imagine it's difficult for the models to get the exact timing of the capture down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, USCG RS said: No one sees the improvements at H5 on the GFS? No one at all? Expand It's a little better for sure, but still has a lot of work tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS is SO CLOSE to something great for along and east of I95 and L.I. Time is running out, if not out for places NW of I95 as amounts seem destined to fall off rapidly as you go NW but this still has time to produce big for coastal NJ and LI and by big I mean 12"+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, USCG RS said: No one sees the improvements at H5 on the GFS? No one at all? Expand I do! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs coming out Expand Unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs was a tick better with the phase. Results on the ground were fairly similar though. Because it's got a broad trough. Like to see that sharpen up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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