eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The RGEM barely phases... just in time. This trof is so sensitive to the timing of little pieces of energy. This could easily shift mostly OTS or a big hit for all. High drama! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 what time does the GFS run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: what time does the GFS run ? It’s running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: what time does the GFS run ? Running now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Out of my depth with that one it would be comical if there was a "division by zero" error buried deep in the algorithms of one or more of these models lol. Probably much more complex errors than that, but you get the picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, eduggs said: The RGEM barely phases... just in time. This trof is so sensitive to the timing of little pieces of energy. This could easily shift mostly OTS or a big hit for all. High drama! as in it could even be a nowcast bust (positive or negative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Watch the gfs pull an 18z nam lmfao... with the way everything been going be our luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looking at H5 through 36hrs the GFS didn't look any better if not a bit worse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 is that looking better at hour 54 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: is that looking better at hour 54 ? Nope lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: is that looking better at hour 54 ? Worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs looks horrible I kid you not I think gfs did in fact just do the 18z nam scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Totals up to 18z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Bad run - if CMC looks like rgem, the Goofus will be on its own. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z GFS just told the 18z NAM "hold my beer" 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS is stupid and stubborn. A crap model. That and the Nam are the best this country can do? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: 0z GFS just told the 18z NAM "hold my beer" Gfs has always sucked with coastal storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hopefully we can get the CMC and UKMET to bite tonight, that would make the GFS a massive outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Need a nice Cmc run would have gfs on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So we get some of the other models to come back onboard and the GFS still won't budge and looks even worse? I just can't believe how different the #1 and #2 modes are doing with this with 2 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We have to proceed with extreme caution until the GFS gets on board. It remains a huge caution flag. The background tug will want to pull this east, so that is the default here. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the NAM, RGEM, ICON, and JMA threw us a bone this cycle. I'm very wary that this might have been a brief head fake west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: Bad run - if CMC looks like rgem, the Goofus will be on its own. Given how perilous the setup is, the progressive bias of the GFS will lead to incredible run to run changes. It's really incredible how slight changes affect the entire outcome. The model volatility must be off the charts this close to the potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wow you see most of the 00Z short range models trend to the west. Then the GFS trends way east, boy this is a tough forecast. Hopefully by tomorrow 9:30 things come into better agreement for my next official forecast for my job at sanitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Bad run - if CMC looks like rgem, the Goofus will be on its own. Cmc is a hit 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is legit crazy. The differences are startling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Folks I think the GFS is back to being the Goofus with this storm. The short range models will Lead the way to a consensus. I expect a decent run from the euro tonight and possibly the Canadian but they won’t all be 100% all in yet. Tomorrow you will see The short range models start to hone in on a big hit starting tomorrow morning and throughout the day. I don’t expect the goofus to be on board until probably lunchtime tomorrow. Tomorrow night we can expect The headlines to read grocery store shelves already bare are completely wiped out due to major snowstorm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Cmc is a hit Whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Cmc is a hit Big one NYC east, solid west. Out on B&W... but we pretty much knew how it would look from the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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