mattinpa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: To be fair that was a pretty nice run Didn’t quite end up what we wanted but worlds different from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: so this is option number 4? I thought closing off south was supposed to be a good thing lol If it’s way down south like over NC and it occludes down there it would just kind of drift east and not get the best dynamics up here. But the evolution looked weird and it again blows up random convection that it seems to chase. It was a lot better than 18z that’s what I care about. The upper air evolution was a hair away from another 12z blockbuster. Now we cross fingers for other models to follow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: H5 was great just about to say that wish we can get the gfs to look like that at h5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: H5 was great Yup. Back in the ballgame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: To be fair that was a pretty nice run For the first 60 hours, then it was a train wreck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: To be fair that was a pretty nice run If that was depicted correctly.. thats a KU NC to BOS. Thats a bomb. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I went from nothing to almost 1.5 inches!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: H5 was great Beyond. That was... something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Precip field would be further west with a low in that spot that strong I totally agree with this. At least in most cases. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yes, improved over 18Z but how much worse could if have gotten than 18Z. Problem with 00Z is 500MB does not go negative and close off until too late for anyone but the immediate coast and LI. Axis stays neutral until around noon Saturday and then goes negative and cuts off and sfc low explodes but to far offshore once she goes negative. NAM so we wait and watch other guidance. It just has to happen a little sooner so we get that rapid deepening closer in. I do agree though that overall look of 00Z is improved. Just needs a little more to make this memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I mean, we don't toss these looks at this range. But it's the nam. Need the varsity guidance to come around. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Anyone have some wind maps they could post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Icon is way west 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The ultimate best case scenario meaning if everything worked out perfectly would be a slow crawling monster (960-950mb) just south of LI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM looks amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Icon looks great compared to 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The ultimate best case scenario meaning if everything worked out perfectly would be a slow crawling monster (960-950mb) just south of LI We want the upper 500mb low to close off just south of us. That would really deliver it. Pay the most attention to the upper level evolution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The ultimate best case scenario meaning if everything worked out perfectly would be a slow crawling monster (960-950mb) just south of LI I believe the crawling monster is very possible, if not likely (not sure about that low a mb but), however, those on Long Island should also prepare for what comes along with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enormous shift. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Now how does this compare to last run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: All that buildup with the "we're about to get Nam'd" etc. then....thud. Not like it matters anyway because...Nam. People jump the gun and get overexcited. But in fairness H5 was worthy of excitement considering previous runs even though the surface didn't work out very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, allgame830 said: Now how does this compare to last run?? Way way west 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I wonder how much further west we could get this to go. Even small shifts cause huge changes in snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This and the NAM actually shows low occluding/stalling to our south and fairly tucked, any option obviously is still on the table...tomorrow 12Z should be the runs where we can nail it down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 The rgem looks to follow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, MANDA said: Yes, improved over 18Z but how much worse could if have gotten than 18Z. Problem with 00Z is 500MB does not go negative and close off until too late for anyone but the immediate coast and LI. Axis stays neutral until around noon Saturday and then goes negative and cuts off and sfc low explodes but to far offshore once she goes negative. NAM so we wait and watch other guidance. It just has to happen a little sooner so we get that rapid deepening closer in. I do agree though that overall look of 00Z is improved. Just needs a little more to make this memorable. Little changes have a big impact, I would be extremely doubtful of any model forecast, this might end up being a true nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: This and the NAM actually shows low occluding/stalling to our south and fairly tucked, any option obviously is still on the table...tomorrow 12Z should be the runs where we can nail it down Pretty much what forky said today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The rgem looks to follow looks to follow last run or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: All that buildup with the "we're about to get Nam'd" etc. then....thud. Not like it matters anyway because...Nam. I may have jumped the gun there... but that H5 -if it comes to fruition- will disappoint no one here. I can't remember seeing that type of H5 on the models since I started tracking... about 20 years ago. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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