January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, that wasn't as bad as 12z. Hopefully we stop the bleeding. Then gradually improve tomorrow and Friday? Not out of the question. Wouldn't take a lot. 

The GFS was less snowy than 12z. 

[EasternLI]

Just now, psv88 said:

The GFS was less snowy than 12z. 

Don't care about that. I'm talking 500mb. 

[wthrmn654]

23 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

It still went east.  

And it still can shift west.  I'm saying it didn't follow the NAMs big hop shift east at least. 

[HVSnowLover]

I'm looking at it as the 0Z runs tonight to me are the start of the 4th quarter with 0Z Friday being the finish line.  The analogy helps me in terms of timeframes to focus on.    

[Jt17]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And it still can shift west.  I'm saying it didn't follow the NAMs big hop shift east at least. 

It didn't shift east either. 

[Nibor]

[lee59]

Because it will be so cold where it does snow, the snow to liquid rate could be quite high.

[NEG NAO]

On 1/25/2022 at 5:36 PM, NEG NAO said:

better to be conservative with snowfall totals 4 days out and adjust as needed each remaining day

 

What happened today is a prime example why they should have stayed conservative yesterday ..........

[Rmine1]

NWS Upton noting the east shifts in their AFD. I love the very last line

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There remains the potential for a strong winter storm to impact the
region from Friday night through Saturday night with heavy snow and
strong winds. That being said, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty as all of the 12Z globals have shifted east with the low
track as well as their ensembles. The 12Z NAM12 was the boldest with
a farther west track and the potential for 1 to 2 ft of snow across
much of the area. However, the 18Z NAM is an eye opener as it has
shifted well east of the area with no measurable precipitation. This
scenario seems unlikely at this time. Due to the large uncertainty
and bouncing around of the guidance, we are running with a model
blend approach. Should this eastward trend continue with subsequent
runs, snowfall amounts will trend down.

There is a fair amount of complexity to the upper air pattern as
multiple pieces of energy upstream come into play with the
development and phasing within the longwave trough that is carved
out across the eastern seaboard by Friday night. Shortwave energy is
tracking down from the Northwest Territories of Canada, the PAC NW,
and even north of the Great Lakes. This interaction and where a
cutoff low develops seems to be causing the large differences in the
guidance. Once again, there is agreement overall in an eastward
shift, but due to the complexity mentioned, overall confidence
remains low with this forecast.

Liquid equivalent amounts range from one-quarter to one-half across
the western half of the forecast area (Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ,
NYC, SW CT), to around an inch across far eastern LI and southeast
CT. This would produce warning level snows from the Hudson Valley
and NYC metro east. Once again, confidence is low and this is likely
not the final solution.
Just to show that there is a wide range in the model guidance, snow
probs at the 90th percentile have over 20 inches across eastern half
of the area, while the 10th percentile has borderline advisory
levels far easter areas. Bottom line, the goal posts are very wide
at this time.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm looking at it as the 0Z runs tonight to me are the start of the 4th quarter with 0Z Friday being the finish line.  The analogy helps me in terms of timeframes to focus on.    

Regarding these football analogies, an important part is getting left out.  Are the models the Chiefs?  Or are the models the Jets.

[tek1972]

What happened today is a prime example why they should have stayed conservative yesterday ..........

But that doesn't drive the ratings

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[dave0176]

At this point I now hope it’s a complete miss it’s my bday this weekend and we had quite a bit of people coming. If it’s not gonna be epic I don’t want anything then.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, tek1972 said:

But that doesn't drive the ratings

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So true so true..........

[tek1972]

At this point I now hope it’s a complete miss it’s my bday this weekend and we had quite a bit of people coming. If it’s not gonna be epic I don’t want anything then.

As of right now I would say a standard 3-6 inch snowfall for Suffolk county. Average.

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[Tatamy]

The Euro was the model that went nuts with this one in recent runs.  The other models were further east or going that direction.  The NAM went big on this this morning for that one run.

[dave0176]

2 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

As of right now I would say a standard 3-6 inch snowfall for Suffolk county. Average.

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We’ll I’m in Brick NJ not sure what this area shows.

[SnowGoose69]

One thing of note is that more members of the GEPS/GEFS at least are picking up on the fact a huge ass area of snow will exist in long duration behind the low track....given what is going on at the mid/upper levels that has been one thing its evident the Euro/EPS has been correct on for 2 days

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The Euro was the model that went nuts with this one in recent runs.  The other models were further east or going that direction.  The NAM went big on this this morning for that one run.

The CMC/GFS yesterday had several runs that were at least showing like 6-12 inches, now it's like 6-12 flakes if that. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

NWS Upton noting the east shifts in their AFD. I love the very last line

Just to show that there is a wide range in the model guidance, snow
probs at the 90th percentile have over 20 inches across eastern half
of the area, while the 10th percentile has borderline advisory
levels far easter areas. Bottom line, the goal posts are very wide
at this time.

 

They're not kidding!  I noticed a big disparity this morning but nothing like what's shown now.  10% for Nassau/Suffolk border is literally zero.  90% is 21 inches.  Have never seen anything remotely close to this in the few years they've been publishing these maps.  

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Regarding these football analogies, an important part is getting left out.  Are the models the Chiefs?  Or are the models the Jets.

Honestly I'd say somewhere in between. 

[KeithB]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

When you get in your 50's and 60's, snow all of a sudden becomes cold and messy. It's part of nature and the aging process I guess

Not for me

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Torch said:

Was the excitement on this thread yesterday because of ratings, or was it because there was a legitimate chance of something special happening?
 

the excitement was caused by what most of the models were showing yesterday - the pessimism now is being caused by the same thing

[coastalplainsnowman]

Question for the experts -  I'm trying to square what I see on the Upton site, which as of 3:20 PM has all of LI with about a 25% chance of 18+ inches and an expected snowfall of a foot for the Nassau/Suffolk border, with, at least what I'm perceiving, as a 'show's [basically] over, oh well' vibe here.  I realize that the pros on here won't necessarily agree Upton all the time, but surprised that there's this much disparity.  Why is that?  Is in part because most posters here are more north & west, where it is a different story even on Upton's maps?

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

the excitement was caused by what most of the models were showing yesterday - the pessimism now is being caused by the same thing

So maybe the "media" is a reflection of all of us.

[HeadInTheClouds]

15 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Regarding these football analogies, an important part is getting left out.  Are the models the Chiefs?  Or are the models the Jets.

Definitely the Jets. They can't be trusted beyond 48 hours especially with a setup like this. 

[Jt17]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Question for the experts -  I'm trying to square what I see on the Upton site, which as of 3:20 PM has all of LI with about a 25% chance of 18+ inches and an expected snowfall of a foot for the Nassau/Suffolk border, with, at least what I'm perceiving, as a 'show's [basically] over, oh well' vibe here.  I realize that the pros on here won't necessarily agree Upton all the time, but surprised that there's this much disparity.  Why is that?  Is in part because most posters here are more north & west, where it is a different story even on Upton's maps?

It's because one of the 2 major weather models relied on most heavily to forecast weather in the US is still showing over a foot for most of Long Island.

[wthrmn654]

6 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Question for the experts -  I'm trying to square what I see on the Upton site, which as of 3:20 PM has all of LI with about a 25% chance of 18+ inches and an expected snowfall of a foot for the Nassau/Suffolk border, with, at least what I'm perceiving, as a 'show's [basically] over, oh well' vibe here.  I realize that the pros on here won't necessarily agree Upton all the time, but surprised that there's this much disparity.  Why is that?  Is in part because most posters here are more north & west, where it is a different story even on Upton's maps?

 

3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

It's because one of the 2 major weather models relied on most heavily to forecast weather in the US is still showing over a foot for most of Long Island.

That and there using a model blend between the euro/gfs and some nam. 12z nam was showing big snows for everyone just about. To no one seeing anything at 18z and for that reason they do not see that happening and are essentially tossing that run. But that could change. 

 

For example. 

[Jt17]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

 

That and there using a model blend between the euro/gfs and some nam. 12z nam was showing big snows for everyone just about. To no one seeing anything at 18z and for that reason they do not see that happening and are essentially tossing that run. But that could change. 

That nam run wasn't included in its guidance. It came after 3:20. That being said the other mesoscale model with any legitimacy the rgem didn't fall apart like the nam at all. In fact the rgem was a little better than it's previous run. 

[White Gorilla]

[tek1972]

Was the excitement on this thread yesterday because of ratings, or was it because there was a legitimate chance of something special happening?
 

There was a legitimate chance. But should have just said that. A potential storm that would need to be watched. They immediately started saying huge winter storm . Once people hear huge it's over

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