Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Trend is bad If the storm doesn't capture near us then the storm will go more east. There is no trend. You had about 4 consecutive maybe 5 consecutive runs of 20"+ snows in NYC, now one run of the Euro giving 6-10" still a very big snowfall by NYC standards. This can easily switch back. When you're comparing the Euro to the GFS you're comparing apples to oranges not apples to apples. There is no trend established yet and these models are not interacting with each other. WX/PT 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: A better PNA out west could help big time. Models seem to be trending that way. It could cancel out the dragging of the southern stream and lead to an earlier phase. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: This was the issue with this run. We should not be writing this off in any way shape or form. Yeah, I agree. If that trend reverses watch out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: This was the issue with this run. We should not be writing this off in any way shape or form. This right here is the difference between being a weenie and an educated weather enthusiast. You cannot get over emotional or speak in absolutes. Tomorrow night if the models are still showing this is a miss then we will know it's over. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro went from 20" to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If you're convinced it's over please stop posting in this thread. If you want to whine/scream go to the banter thread if it's not too ridiculous. The whining posts will get deleted. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The trough is more amplified at 12z Saturday on the 12z run vs the 06z run. That wasn't necessarily reflected at the surface. This double barrel look doesn't make sense to me. Good I thought it looked weird. People say this and I never know what it means but could it be connective feedback? It looked like it phased and then all of a sudden it got torn apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro went from 20" to 7" Where are you? Didn't for NYC. Looks like NY is still well clear of a foot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: Where are you? Didn't for NYC. Looks like NY is still well clear of a foot Coastal Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro went from 20" to 7" It closed off in the ideal spot on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro went from 20" to 7" These things happen. The next run could show 30" and everyone will be sucked right back in. You would have better odds playing the lottery than attempting to predict what the weather is going to do when you have so many moving pieces. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Yes but there were definitely some trends towards the GFS and all the other models to be honest with leaving some of the energy behind. Still some time for change but the possibility of a big snow event for the city on west is decreasing. If the N stream can become more amplified and dive in faster, it might cancel this out to some extent. I agree the best outcome is for that southern energy to phase, but there might be an escape hatch with the better northern stream. The southern energy trailing behind isn't great but it could still be salvageable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Where are you? Didn't for NYC. Looks like NY is still well clear of a foot 6-12 for the NYC area on this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Holy crap we cancel storms now if they are less than 2 feet? A 3-8 inch snowfall is STILL a significant amount of snow for the metro area. Granted we all want a blockbuster, but let's get real. This is a nice storm still in an otherwise dry winter. It looks to bring NYC up to AVERAGE for the time of year for snowfall. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: These things happen. The next run could show 30" and everyone will be sucked right back in. You would have better odds playing the lottery than attempting to predict what the weather is going to do when you have so many moving pieces. I understand that. Just cant deny the trends. Get that sw scoot east 6 hrs sooner an its game on. It's not over yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10:1 ratio Euro map. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: 6-12 for the NYC area on this run Yea hard to tell on Pivotal - also I live in queens so looks more like 12 to me lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I agree. If that trend reverses watch out. Even if it stays similiar, Long Island gets buried. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: This isnt a therapy session. It is a weather forum. weather isnt a like/dislike situation. It just is. And the fact that we haven’t had many winter months with below normal departures in several years… That is the BIG story. we had that in the 80s too, again no one cares about cold and dry... the pattern has been BAD- period end of discussion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I understand that. Just cant deny the trends. Get that sw scoot east 6 hrs sooner an its game on. It's not over yet As mets have said, we haven't established any trends yet. It takes at least one full day of model runs to establish that. You cannot expect models to show the same outcome each and every run. You have to look at what's going on in the mid levels and see if what's depicted makes sense. Clown maps are called what they are for a reason. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This run is still fantastic for MOST of the Metro Area. Everyone needs to practice some meditation and breath. Looking at the snow maps that will still be a day with many airline cancellations and travel disruptions. It will be a perfect day to head outside and enjoy a snowfall! Who knows, maybe once we really start seeing more data, the models will shift a bit west. No amount of getting upset will change the weather. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just posting not saying right or wrong. There is no denying though that 12Z compared to 00Z and 06Z has pulled the best totals eastward. 12Z OP verbatim is still a nice hit coastal NJ to L.I. but taken in context with the other 12Z guidance (excluding the NAM) the window is closing hard I95 N and W, of that I'm fairly certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, JustinRP37 said: This run is still fantastic for MOST of the Metro Area. Everyone needs to practice some meditation and breath. Looking at the snow maps that will still be a day with many airline cancellations and travel disruptions. It will be a perfect day to head outside and enjoy a snowfall! Who knows, maybe once we really start seeing more data, the models will shift a bit west. No amount of getting upset will change the weather. I don't know if I would use the word most, but it was a fine run for the time frame that we're out. The GFS and the Euro are still more than 100+ miles apart in terms of how far West the significant snow gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'll be happy with anything over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 We'll see what the EPS probabilities look like vs 00Z and 6Z mu gut tells me they will be knocked downward again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Even if it stays similiar, Long Island gets buried. East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: There is no trend. You had about 4 consecutive maybe 5 consecutive runs of 20"+ snows in NYC, now one run of the Euro giving 6-10" still a very big snowfall by NYC standards. This can easily switch back. When you're comparing the Euro to the GFS you're comparing apples to oranges not apples to apples. There is no trend established yet and these models are not interacting with each other. WX/PT only thing we can say is perhaps the new data being ingested has had an effect? But those planes went out today- so wouldn't it be too soon for that? Might need to wait for the 0z runs overnight for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we had that in the 80s too, again no one cares about cold and dry... the pattern has been BAD- period end of discussion It got so cold one winter in the early 80's my gas line in my car froze. But that wasn't the big story; it was the 18 inches dropped in Feb 83.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly. I will also be happy with. 6-12 inch event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 A few things 1) Anyone writing this off is wrong. Could it trend the wrong way? Yes. However, everyone needs to take a step back and breathe. We are 72 hours out and the H5 is incredibly close this run, even for the GFS. 2) As has been stated, the sfc LP is dropping from 998 to 984 mb inside of six hours (and likely a conservative drop). As such, the lack of precip expanse to the NW and the it jumping East, gives me great pause. However, I have more pause due to the fact that at that time, the H5 is closing off. Something is wacky there. Of course, the H5 can always open up again and without the Southern stream energy as involved, there is a bit of a higher risk for that. However, it still must be understood that the likelihood of what is being shown verbatim is not high. 3) A jump east still gives many a SECS. 4) Everyone... Relax. (Psh. Like thats gonna happen) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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