Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Gonna be a sloppy phase it looks like on gfs.. hard to take the euro seriously with no support besides the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Gfs leaving more energy behind, not good the northern stream looks quicker. Let's see what that means...but it will likely be east Trough orientation is more positively tilted...east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, cleetussnow said: the northern stream looks quicker. Let's see what that means...but it will likely be east Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: If you're on the coast expecting 14:1 ratios with that wind you're going to be disappointed. Will it be that windy if the low is halfway out in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Will it be that windy if the low is halfway out in the Atlantic? Lol, well you still have low ratios if there's no precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The GFS jumped way east at 72 hours but it looks wonky because the low jumped straight east from 60 to 66 hours. Don't know what to make of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: The GFS jumped way east at 72 hours but it looks wonky because the low jumped straight east from 60 to 66 hours. Don't know what to make of that. Weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: The GFS jumped way east at 72 hours but it looks wonky because the low jumped straight east from 60 to 66 hours. Don't know what to make of that. Convective feedback...we toss... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not liking the looks of this. I expect the euro to cave soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Then it gets tugged (captured?) back northwest for a time at 78 then northeast again at 84. Haven't looked at the upper levels but the whole run was weird, one big zig zag. Also weird that at 72, the low was well east of the convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weird run Because it doesn't show a major snowstorm for NYC metro - I think it has a 50/50 chance of verifying at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Because it doesn't show a major snowstorm - I think it has a 50/50 chance of verifying at this point 50 /50 is a legit chance right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol, well you still have low ratios if there's no precip. Agree lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not what we wanted to see at this range. I am not sure if there was extra data sampling in the Pacific, but that could mean this shift is real. I put more stock in this than the NAM. With all this divergence we aren't there yet in terms of the right solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Weird run Well it keeps going east. So that should tell us something. Not expecting a big storm here over in NJ at this juncture ( at least not in my area ) the question is do we get flurries-3 or get at least a 6-7 of powder out of this? Anything more would be gravy at this point. Again, doesn't seem to be the year for big snows in this neck of the woods. With my limited knowledge, I have a bias against winters with little blocking, though I do understand it isn't always needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Not liking the looks of this. I expect the euro to cave soon You don't know that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Huge 100+ mile difference in the new GFS run vs the last run of the Euro. One these is going to cave hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Gfs has done this so many times in the past with big coastal storms. The Euro usually does well in these situations. Let's see if the Euro holds or folds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Huge 100+ mile difference in the new GFS run vs the last run of the Euro. One these is going to cave hard. Gfs is bad for alot more areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Weird outcome or not I wouldn’t jump on the Euro/Nam solutions until the GFS shifts west. Just way too risky. I don’t like how it leaves the energy behind out west. We have to make up serious ground from the northern stream because of that and by the time it would happen it would probably be too late and be a benefit for E MA instead. It’s not quite put up or shut up time but by tonight we’d be getting to that point. Time for the east models to start shifting west/amped if we really want to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs has done this so many times in the past with big coastal storms. The Euro usually does well in these situations. Let's see if the Euro holds or folds. If Euro is wrong here are we done following it for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 S/W is into the U.S. grid this morning so 12Z models have first sniff of those soundings. Will be interesting to see what CMC and EURO do. Should start to get clear trends soon. NW of I95 don't get your hopes up for big numbers...coastal sections still in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If Euro is wrong here are we done following it for the winter? Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: Huge 100+ mile difference in the new GFS run vs the last run of the Euro. One these is going to cave hard. the thing that gives it more credibility is the main energy sources out west are being sampled better because they are closer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: Weird outcome or not I wouldn’t jump on the Euro/Nam solutions until the GFS shifts west. Just way too risky. I don’t like how it leaves the energy behind out west. We have to make up serious ground from the northern stream because of that and by the time it would happen it would probably be too late and be a benefit for E MA instead. It’s not quite put up or shut up time but by tonight we’d be getting to that point. Time for the east models to start shifting west/amped if we really want to bite. I would like think out on LI you have a little more time with this, for NYC and def anywhere west of NYC need to see solid changes by 0Z tonight if you want a big storm. Honestly I'm almost fine with a powdery 6 inches or so at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is holding back more energy. This should be more east. It's hard to take the Euro seriously here since it has no support except for the Long range Nam. Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Welp i have grabbed the baseball bat apparently. GFS brings us no closer. Onto the UKIE and EURO, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: If Euro is wrong here are we done following it for the winter? For sure no. It can miss one and still be overall superior. I am leaning Euro/Nam 60/40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 CMC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Welp i have grabbed the baseball bat apparently. GFS brings us no closer. Onto the UKIE and EURO, I think onto the Canadian first - if that goes east forgetaboutit........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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