Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If the NAM stays in our corner especially as the hours tick by that should be a nice boost of credibility to the Euro solution. Could the GFS just not be correctly modeling the phase and thus is skewing the runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I have no idea. It’s also the Nam which can flop around more than a freshly caught fluke. But it’s good to see it better with the phase and upper air evolution than not. True very true, could of sworn i saw something about a misson of some type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, weathermedic said: Air recon supposed to take place in the Pacific later today. Don't know if that data will get ingested in time for the 12Z Euro/GFS suite. Read on here it’s supposed to be ingested for tonight’s 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM and EURO are almost identical Nam has the low well tucked just E of LI, likely to make landfall in SE MA or the islands....All of Metro 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Uh yeah, I think I'll take that Nam run, nice trend towards the Euro. Just the Nam but a damn good start to the 12z suite. Really need to get that stubborn GFS on board, it went the wrong way last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Doorman said: "HELLOOOOO NEW JERSEY" LLY Hi Doorman. I'd like that with a side of fries please. And gravy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Uh yeah, I think I'll take that Nam run, nice trend towards the Euro. Just the Nam but a damn good start to the 12z suite. Really need to get that stubborn GFS on board, it went the wrong way last night. Gfs didn't go the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: Uh yeah, I think I'll take that Nam run, nice trend towards the Euro. Just the Nam but a damn good start to the 12z suite. Really need to get that stubborn GFS on board, it went the wrong way last night. The GFS started a recovery back west at 6z. Hopefully that continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs didn't go the wrong way It went east last night. Not by much but it stopped the west trend it was making the previous 2 days. Could be just model noise, we'll see in about an hour. Edit: I didn't see that it ticked back west at 6z. My apologies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Gorgeous capture right near the benchmark. Yeah if only it weren't the Nam at 84hrs. That being said there's a decent shift from 06z at 36-48hrs where Nam does well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: Hi Doorman. I'd like that with a side of fries please. And gravy. Your gravy for now VW https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam euro blend would be great thx. It's the nam, but trends early on were favorable. That matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Gorgeous capture right near the benchmark. at 966mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Nam euro blend would be great thx. It's the nam, but trends early on were favorable. That matters. And at 84hr when those totals are shown, it's still snowing heavily from the city on east. Huge deform band over central LI. 966mb essentially on top of the benchmark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Think of it in the context of those with frail or elderly parents, or those with loved ones otherwise reliant on care. Not everyone is fully self reliant and a major storm can be a difficult challenge. Yes plowing happens quick these days but in a storm that's not riding 32 degrees the roads can definitely stay very messy until it warms. Not as much for those in the city, but in general combined with the massive population of the area and you get the NJ special snow panic frenzy. Plowing doesn't always happen so quickly. Don't forget 2018's pre-thanksgiving fiascoSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Easy 3 footer under the death band! Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Can't wait for the full NAM 18z and 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam has temps in the teens during the height of the storm here in the NYC area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The position of the 700 mb low is perfect for NYC on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This would just be epic from central MA down through Suffolk and good snow west of there into NYC still. And this is the last panel of the run when 20"+ fell already from NYC east. Again DON'T get too excited about it since it's the NAM but it shows the potential somewhere if the phasing does happen/close off in the right place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And at 84hr when those totals are shown, it's still snowing heavily from the city on east. Huge deform band over central LI. 966mb essentially on top of the benchmark. That's insanity. That's a good way to start off 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam should only be takin seriously at hour 60 and under - which is here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah if only it weren't the Nam at 84hrs. This is true.. However, the changes that take place at at hr 24-48 set the stage for 84. Obviously not set in stone... But higher confidence due to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doorman said: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ I know we shouldn't put our trust in these maps this far out but this output is based on 10:1 ratio's, I am assuming this will be higher than that due to how cold the airmass is. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: Nam should only be takin seriously at hour 60 and under - which is here If you're going to show that, you can't forget about what's going on aloft.. Which is phenomenal for the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I will remind old timers about the EE rule. When the Euro and ETA were in sync, it was deadly. For the youngins and as a reminder, the ETA is now the NAM. DT is the author of the EE rule, and also the weekend rule, which was uncanny for a long time how often they both worked out. Voodoo? Maybe.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Torch said: So far every guidance since Monday has been consistent with the trend towards this weekend. lock Not a lock yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: If you're going to show that, you can't forget about what's going on aloft.. Which is phenomenal for the area. I am taking it seriously and looks like a lot of potential for a major storm somewhere in the tri-state favoring areas east of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: If you're going to show that, you can't forget about what's going on aloft.. Which is phenomenal for the area. It did much better with phasing in the southern stream. And that happens early in the run. The ridge position to me out west also tells me that it has room to come west. It’s really all about how progressive the trough is. The good phase puts a stop to it and bombs the low in a perfect spot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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