BlizzLuv Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 47 minutes ago, tomcatct said: Plus they know people will flood to home depot and Lowes...funny how so many people seem to lose last years snow shovel I always wondered that. Just like in the hurricane areas of Florida. What do people do with all the plywood (window coverings) after the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This would be worse because alot of stores have empty shelves right now. Yeah supply chains are not wonderful right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone. Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it doubles. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories. It is all of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: so the EURO has lost these qualities? - also what is your prediction for this storm using all the data parameters you mentioned to forecast by ? Lost? No. But it has been having trouble with certain patterns as of late. However, regarding KUs, I still trust the Euro over all. Personally regarding the GFS, I think the most recent pattern has been playing to its bias of holding energy back. I don't think it's been wonderful, it's gotten lucky IMHO. It has been par for the course with storms once they are on the eastern seaboard. Etc. My prediction is that this is going to a be a strong hit for the Tri-State, long island especially. Unfortunately, as the post pointed out, there is so much energy around that the slightest change will make a huge sensible difference regarding total accumulation, winds, and the like. This is outside of the skill of most - if not all- models. However, the Euro has been consistent and with its resolution, I'm not just going to write it off (even though 0z shows just how delicate the set up is) Now - if you're asking about my gut? I think this is going to be a heavy hitter. But that's simply my gut feeling here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 How many of our past big storms didn't have a negative NAO ? I would think that would be beneficial for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Lost? No. But it has been having trouble with certain patterns as of late. However, regarding KUs, I still trust the Euro over all. Personally regarding the GFS, I think the most recent pattern has been playing to its bias of holding energy back. I don't think it's been wonderful, it's gotten lucky IMHO. It has been par for the course with storms once they are on the eastern seaboard. Etc. My prediction is that this is going to a be a strong hit for the Tri-State, long island especially. Unfortunately, as the post pointed out, there is so much energy around that the slightest change will make a huge sensible difference regarding total accumulation, winds, and the like. This is outside of the skill of most - if not all- models. However, the Euro has been consistent and with its resolution, I'm not just going to write it off (even though 0z shows just how delicate the set up is) Now - if you're asking about my gut? I think this is going to be a heavy hitter. But that's simply my gut feeling here. Euro has done really well with Miller A storms. GFS is usually late to the party with these storms. We have seen this many times in the past. The overall performance from the Euro this winter has me hesitant though . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4" I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. I think the 06z Nam is plausible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4" I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. I think the 06z Nam is plausible. You do realize that the NAM is not yet in its range - right? You want to start placing more weight on the NAM solutions on Friday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Thanks USCG, that actually answered some earlier questions of mine. Great post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4" I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. I think the 06z Nam is plausible. you are about 10 or so miles west of me and we seem to be thinking about the same regarding this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has done really well with Miller A storms. GFS is usually late to the party with these storms. We have seen this many times in the past. The overall performance from the Euro this winter has me hesitant though . It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best? I agree right now it’s seems like it’s Euro against the world. Any other given year that would have been gospel, but not so much anymore. Let’s see what the 12z suites do. Ultimately I feel the Euro will cave. Better sampling next 12 to 24 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam looks a bit better to me at 500 at hr36. Like to see where that goes. Still very early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 A few things: Forget about the Kuchera snow maps. They seldom apply and do not apply in this case. 00Z and 06Z EURO definitely ticked east op and ensembles. Probabilities for 12"+ maximize along the NJ coast at about 40% and fall to less than 20% over NW Jersey. Probabilities for 18"+ also obviously also maximize along the NJ coast at about 25% and fall quickly as you go NW. These probabilities are down slightly from 12Z and 18Z yesterday. Ensemble "counts" have also slipped. In my opinion the EURO has definitely trended less favorable, and the changes mostly impacts areas west of I95. For coastal sections, NYC metro and LI still showing a big hit. Still 48-60 hours to go but guidance has got to start some sort of capitulation soon. The closer you get to the event the less likely you are to see significant shifts. Strong feeling on my part is that western and northern areas of this forum as going to be left out of the big numbers, high confidence on that. Not 100% but at least 75%. Coastal sections will do better but I'd temper expectations of amounts in excess of 12" and even more so in excess of 18". Trends last 24 hours do not support it and if you factor in the CMC and GFS they really don't support it. I'm riding more of a EURO solution and think CMC and GFS will trend better and the EURO will trend more eastward. Time will tell but model solutions are going to have to move one way or the other over the next 2 days. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 North and west (I live in southwest Morris) has always been subject to a hard cut-off; every model depicts it. I’m starting with that mindset and will adjust as necessary. Happy hunting to those further East. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM should inch back west here. HR42 the northern stream and southern stream are a bit sharper so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This definitely looks better than 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: This definitely looks better than 6z Way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Much Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ooof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Back to annihilation on the Nam. 500 low closes off in a great spot. Would be well over a foot easy from the city on east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Radio silence usually isn't good...lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Wow, huge jump back west. Aren’t these runs starting at 12z fully sampled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Wow Looks like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Wow, huge jump back west. Aren’t these runs starting at 12z fully sampled as well. I have no idea. It’s also the Nam which can flop around more than a freshly caught fluke. But it’s good to see it better with the phase and upper air evolution than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Wow, huge jump back west. Aren’t these runs starting at 12z fully sampled as well. Air recon supposed to take place in the Pacific later today. Don't know if that data will get ingested in time for the 12Z Euro/GFS suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 "HELLOOOOO NEW JERSEY" LLY 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam gives Boston precip issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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