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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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47 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

Plus they know people will flood to home depot and Lowes...funny how so many people seem to lose last years snow shovel

I always wondered that. Just like in the hurricane areas of Florida. What do people do with all the plywood (window coverings) after the storm?

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20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone.

Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it doubles. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories.

It is all of that.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

so the EURO has lost these qualities? - also what is your prediction for this storm using all the data parameters you mentioned to forecast by ?

Lost? No. But it has been having trouble with certain patterns as of late. However, regarding KUs, I still trust the Euro over all. 

Personally regarding the GFS, I think the most recent pattern has been playing to its bias of holding energy back. I don't think it's been wonderful, it's gotten lucky IMHO. It has been par for the course with storms once they are on the eastern seaboard. Etc. 

My prediction is that this is going to a be a strong hit for the Tri-State, long island especially. Unfortunately, as the post pointed out, there is so much energy around that the slightest change will make a huge sensible difference regarding total accumulation, winds, and the like. This is outside of the skill of most - if not all- models. However, the Euro has been consistent and with its resolution, I'm not just going to write it off (even though 0z shows just how delicate the set up is) 

Now - if you're asking about my gut? I think this is going to be a heavy hitter. But that's simply my gut feeling here. 

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Lost? No. But it has been having trouble with certain patterns as of late. However, regarding KUs, I still trust the Euro over all. 

Personally regarding the GFS, I think the most recent pattern has been playing to its bias of holding energy back. I don't think it's been wonderful, it's gotten lucky IMHO. It has been par for the course with storms once they are on the eastern seaboard. Etc. 

My prediction is that this is going to a be a strong hit for the Tri-State, long island especially. Unfortunately, as the post pointed out, there is so much energy around that the slightest change will make a huge sensible difference regarding total accumulation, winds, and the like. This is outside of the skill of most - if not all- models. However, the Euro has been consistent and with its resolution, I'm not just going to write it off (even though 0z shows just how delicate the set up is) 

Now - if you're asking about my gut? I think this is going to be a heavy hitter. But that's simply my gut feeling here. 

Euro has done really well with Miller A storms. GFS is usually late to the party with these storms. We have seen this many times in the past.

The overall performance from the Euro this winter has me hesitant though .

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My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4"

I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. 

You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. 

I think the 06z Nam is plausible.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4"

I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. 

You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. 

I think the 06z Nam is plausible.

You do realize that the NAM is not yet in its range - right?  You want to start placing more weight on the NAM solutions on Friday.

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4"

I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. 

You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. 

I think the 06z Nam is plausible.

you are about 10 or so miles west of me and we seem to be thinking about the same regarding this storm...

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27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has done really well with Miller A storms. GFS is usually late to the party with these storms. We have seen this many times in the past.

The overall performance from the Euro this winter has me hesitant though .

It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best? 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best? 

I agree right now it’s seems like it’s Euro against the world. Any other given year that would have been gospel, but not so much anymore. Let’s see what the 12z suites do. Ultimately I feel the Euro will cave. Better sampling next 12 to 24 hours. 

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A few things:

Forget about the Kuchera snow maps.  They seldom apply and do not apply in this case. 

00Z and 06Z EURO definitely ticked east op and ensembles.  Probabilities for 12"+ maximize along the NJ coast at about 40% and fall to less than 20% over NW Jersey.  Probabilities for 18"+ also obviously also maximize along the NJ coast at about 25% and fall quickly as you go NW.  These probabilities are down slightly from 12Z and 18Z yesterday.  Ensemble "counts" have also slipped.

In my opinion the EURO has definitely trended less favorable, and the changes mostly impacts areas west of I95.  For coastal sections, NYC metro and LI still showing a big hit.  

Still 48-60 hours to go but guidance has got to start some sort of capitulation soon.  The closer you get to the event the less likely you are to see significant shifts.  Strong feeling on my part is that western and northern areas of this forum as going to be left out of the big numbers, high confidence on that.  Not 100% but at least 75%.  Coastal sections will do better but I'd temper expectations of amounts in excess of 12" and even more so in excess of 18".  Trends last 24 hours do not support it and if you factor in the CMC and GFS they really don't support it.  I'm riding more of a EURO solution and think CMC and GFS will trend better and the EURO will trend more eastward.  Time will tell but model solutions are going to have to move one way or the other over the next 2 days.

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