January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. 

Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. 

Gradient will be tight. 

If you’re near I95 it is too early to rule out anything.  It’s the well north and west guys like myself who will likely get very little if anything from this one.

[Tatamy]

Next up 06z Euro at 7am.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Next up 06z Euro at 7am.

Time to hit the bed and wake up around that time.

[EasternLI]

Here's a couple probability maps from the 00z eps run. 6+ and 12+

Still a couple days of model runs left... little confidence how this exactly plays out yet. 

[White Gorilla]

Seeing the trends clearly now. Held out hope until this morning. Enjoy the big snows 95 folks and East. A few inches here perhaps. Congrats New England.  Where I live and some others here well north and west, the snow drought will look to continue.  Let's see if we get our turn in Feb or March.  If not, better luck next year.  Really tough to get a forum wide 12 plus. 

[North and West]

Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.

Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.


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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Seeing the trends clearly now. Held out hope until this morning. Enjoy the big snows 95 folks and East.  Congrats New England.  Where I live and some others here well north and west, the snow drought will look to continue.  Let's see if we get our turn in Feb or March.  If not, better luck next year.  Pulling down the shades for now unless things radically change. Enjoy. 

Yep, agree. Can only take solace in the snow cover I've had the last three weeks which still stands at a solid 4 inches today, and will probably still be at 4 inches, 6 max, by Sunday morning. I'll just browse pictures of the 27 inch storm last February 1-2.

[Brasiluvsnow]

You would think that people would learn but it never fails and happens with just about every storm---Yes ,I am pulling for snow but that said it is only Wednesday and this nice looking storm does not occur until LATE Friday night = do you really believe that there will not be changes on the upcoming model runs ? Is a solution that is OVER 48 more like over 60 hours away written in stone ? Me either,,,,the runs tonight showed a nice storm still out there

[North and West]

You would think that people would learn but it never fails and happens with just about every storm---Yes ,I am pulling for snow but that said it is only Wednesday and this nice looking storm does not occur until LATE Friday night = do you really believe that there will not be changes on the upcoming model runs ? Is a solution that is OVER 48 more like over 60 hours away written in stone ? Me either,,,,the runs tonight showed a nice storm still out there

Every. Damn. Year.

And it’s not that I want to be right or hope someone else is wrong (we’re here because we love storms!), but it’s the same thing.

And I say this: I want to be proven wrong. I want an enjoyable storm. I also try to live in reality.


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[EasternLI]

GFS trend, last 4 runs. Let's capture this thing. 

[EastonSN+]

Forky, if your out there we need your guidance.

Do you still feel like this will be a large intense storm for the area (EURO), or is this more of a Southeast NE storm.

Thanks.

[crossbowftw3]

I’ll be fine seeing next to nothing if it means someone around or east of the city gets 20” 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

GFS trend, last 4 runs. Let's capture this thing. 

I feel like every model swings the low out further south of us as well as the capture.

[Volcanic Winter]

I remember the thread for our second snow event of Jan. Lots of uncertainty, then a wild Forky appeared and confidently told us all to enjoy the snow... And snow it did. 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel like every model swings the low out further south of us as well as the capture.

I'm not going to be confident about anything with this sucker until I'm watching radar. We need to keep watching future model runs. Trends today will be important. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Two things to look for in today’s model runs will be better sampling of the shortwaves involved (looks to be already happening) and the dataset obtained from the scheduled recon out in the PAC.  That data is expected to make it into the 0z runs tonight according to the NHC website.

So it will not be until tonight and tomorrow before we get important info from recon and the players moving onto the continental United States.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

And that's what we need. Gfs made a good minor tick at H5. Need this to occur faster.

GFS definitely got better. For the prime impacts you want the upper air lows to close off over or before your area. That’s why New England does better. The lows close off 6hrs sooner-so does NYC in this setup. 

[alexanderhall]

Seeing two camps tonight: 

00z NAM + 00Z EURO (west) vs. 00z 06z GFS + 06z NAM (east) 

The differences might begin with the way that the models handle a small shortwave that splits off and dives into Southern California by Friday 00z. NAM/EURO left, GFS 06z NAM R. 

Euro and NAM show the wave shearing out to the west, while GFS and 06z NAM shows the shortwave consolidated on the CA/MX AZ/MX border.  

the more sheared out camp ends up with a Four-Corners wave that is a little bit quicker to eject/a little further east, while the more consolidated wave on the GFS/06z NAM tugs at this larger shortwave a bit. 

for one reason or another, it seems that (in model world) if the CA/AZ shortwave shears out, it tends to allow the eventual trough to align more meridionally, with two seperate upper level speed maxes surrounding a weakeness, and allows for the further NW track. maybe the phase is more effecient, or happens more in more of a negative tilt, or its a timing thing, not sure. 

here are the two camps at 250mb midnight Saturday, with strikingly similar looks, depending on what the model did with that first shortwave. 

 

thought this was interesting, will be fun to keep an eye on. 

 

 

[Blizzardo]

Was it the NAM that nailed 2015 that noone wanted to believe because it was on its own with the eastern solution? 

[Doorman]

+++

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. 

Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. 

Gradient will be tight. 

I don’t know what “our” means but if you mean for well N&W I’d agree that this isn’t the kind of setup that favors them. For NYC it’s definitely not over and minor adjustments west on the guidance generally will put them in the game for significant to major amounts. Suffolk County is prime for major amounts. 

Last night’s Euro was about perfect for NYC and east, along with the Jersey shore with the track and where the lows closed off but we need that to continue and not keep trending NE. Where everything maxed out definitely did come NE from 18z and 12z. 

This is a setup that favors eastern areas and New England. That’s just how it is with where the different features are located and track of the storm. There’s a little more leeway in New England for a later phase or something of a progressive trend. It definitely doesn’t mean though that it’s “over” for a major storm near NYC. 

[mob1]

Looks pretty good 

[EasternLI]

06z euro looks like a beast. 

[lee59]

This appears to be a Saturday storm, 3 days away. Will be interesting watching models, especially tomorrow as we get more info and will be only 2 days out.

[EasternLI]

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we can be confident that the heaviest totals will stay closer to the coast with the storm forming so far south in the Bahamas. The seasonal pattern this year has been for areas to the east to do better when  the southern stream was involved. I will be watching the GEM which has been the most stable with this system since Sunday.  It was the only model at that time showing a storm.

Reminds me of that 2018? Bomb cyclone a bit in that regard. 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t know what “our” means but if you mean for well N&W I’d agree that this isn’t the kind of setup that favors them. For NYC it’s definitely not over and minor adjustments west on the guidance generally will put them in the game for significant to major amounts. Suffolk County is prime for major amounts. 

Last night’s Euro was about perfect for NYC and east, along with the Jersey shore with the track and where the lows closed off but we need that to continue and not keep trending NE. Where everything maxed out definitely did come NE from 18z and 12z. 

This is a setup that favors eastern areas and New England. That’s just how it is with where the different features are located and track of the storm. There’s a little more leeway in New England for a later phase or something of a progressive trend. It definitely doesn’t mean though that it’s “over” for a major storm near NYC. 

I'm just west of SI and these kinds of setups do make a big difference; it's unlikely we see nothing at all, but will probably end up with a smaller event of 3-6 or 4-8,but in a year like this we'll have to be happy with it. A few miles south of me in Monmouth will also make a big difference. I'm too far north and west for these storms, too far south and east for the interior storms. Way it is here.

[Tatamy]

06z Euro is 18-24 “ in the metro at 10:1 ratios at 90 hours.

[Jt17]

6z euro at 90 (still snowing):

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Just now, Jt17 said:

6z euro at 90 (still snowing):

Jesus