Nibor Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm just noticing now that the panels between hr 90 and hr 96 actually show a cluster of members staying south of SE New England. That might be indication of the stall and loop we've seen on the 1/25 00z and 12z euro. If that continues to be a feature it might be an indication of an earlier capture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 06z NAM has several inches for the Jersey shore and central and eastern LI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 6:30 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Explain to me how y’all aren’t happy with 20-30” of snow? EURO didn’t cave, it doubled down! Expand Well we all don’t live on the Jersey shore. Anyone north and west this is very shaky compared to last run. Western flank we had reduced to almost nothing and qpf cut down 40-50%. Plus this is the western outlier. Yes you detect bitterness, despair and jealousy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall. 1 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, SnoSki14 said: Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall. Expand Hate to agree but I’m starting too. Not a great night. Tonight is make or break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, SnoSki14 said: Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall. Expand We shall see on the runs today and tomorrow but not a good trend so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If the Euro fails again this no one should be looking at this model again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6z rgem looks better than 0z Still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, SnoSki14 said: Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall. Expand It did? The Euro had more snow for me last night then it had from the previous run, there was no phantom shift east. Also the NAM beyond 48 hours is like dividing by zero, less than useless. The GFS is about as useful as American made electronics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 9:05 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well we all don’t live on the Jersey shore. Anyone north and west this is very shaky compared to last run. Western flank we had reduced to almost nothing and qpf cut down 40-50%. Plus this is the western outlier. Yes you detect bitterness, despair and jealousy. Expand Long Island even western long island, does better on this run than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 06z Icon is a nice hit for the Jersey shore, the city, and LI. 4-7” in those places with less further away from the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6z is better than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 06z GFS comes west. 6-12” for the Jersey shore, SI, Brooklyn, Queens, and LI. Higher amounts further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:00 AM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 6z gfs no Bueno Expand Actually a little better than 00z better for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:00 AM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 6z gfs no Bueno Expand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:00 AM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 6z gfs no Bueno Expand Much better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 East special. Atlantic City could pick up several inches, really nice winter for them. Eastern LI will do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:04 AM, SnoSki14 said: East special. Atlantic City could pick up several inches, really nice winter for them. Eastern LI will do well Expand You just said last night it was over. Stop claiming something this early. 12z runs and Thursday runs are going to be interesting. As long as the Euro stays coarse and the gfs continues to bump west , we will all do well. New England looks like the prime spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS came west, NAM and EURO went east. model noise? holding energy? today we should have some better answers. hopefully we all get buried. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 With this morning’s runs this event is shaping up to be significant south and east of the Driscoll Bridge on the Jersey shore and S&E of I95 elsewhere. It’s the reverse of what we see many times however this go around it appears to be the coastal areas turn for snow. Nearby inland suburbs get much less with a big time gradient setting up for snow amounts very close to the city. Places well to the north and west look to smoke cirrus. I would consider the Euro to be an outlier at this time with higher amounts to the north and west as compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:07 AM, MJO812 said: You just said last night it was over. Stop claiming something this early. 12z runs and Thursday runs are going to be interesting. As long as the Euro stays coarse and the gfs continues to bump west , we will all do well. New England looks like the prime spot Expand Models are actually honing in on a solution. It’s good that we are starting to see a consensus of sorts shaping up. There is still time for all this to change. Based upon what I have been seeing on 500mb charts I really am not seeing a pathway for the higher amounts to come further inland. It kind of reminds me of the huge I287 gradient that set up with Boxing Day in 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:20 AM, Tatamy said: Models are actually honing in on a solution. It’s good that we are starting to see a consensus of sorts shaping up. There is still time for all this to change. Based upon what I have been seeing on 500mb charts I really am not seeing a pathway for the higher amounts to come further inland. It kind of reminds me of the huge I287 gradient that set up with Boxing Day in 2010. Expand Agree It all comes down to timing and how much energy is left behind. The more left behind the less snow we will get , the less behind and we will get alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:07 AM, MJO812 said: You just said last night it was over. Stop claiming something this early. 12z runs and Thursday runs are going to be interesting. As long as the Euro stays coarse and the gfs continues to bump west , we will all do well. New England looks like the prime spot Expand Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. Gradient will be tight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:30 AM, SnoSki14 said: Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. Gradient will be tight. Expand It all depends on how much energy is left behind. We have plenty of time to see major changes ( today and tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:30 AM, SnoSki14 said: Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. Gradient will be tight. Expand uh we just saw major changes over night. wtf you talking about. still a good 2 1/2 days away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:31 AM, MJO812 said: It all depends on how much energy is left behind. We have plenty of time to see major changes ( today and tomorrow) Expand Well the changes need to start at 12z. On 1/26/2022 at 10:33 AM, Snowlover11 said: uh we just saw major changes over night. wtf you talking about. still a good 2 1/2 days away. Expand The closer you get the less likely you'll see a lot of changes. Once you're under 60hrs for a major storm all you'll get is minor ticks. With all the data coming in today we still have until 0z tonight to see bigger shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Two things to look for in today’s model runs will be better sampling of the shortwaves involved (looks to be already happening) and the dataset obtained from the scheduled recon out in the PAC. That data is expected to make it into the 0z runs tonight according to the NHC website. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 10:36 AM, SnoSki14 said: Well the changes need to start at 12z. The closer you get the less likely you'll see a lot of changes. Once you're under 60hrs for a major storm all you'll get is minor ticks. Expand And that's what we need. Gfs made a good minor tick at H5. Need this to occur faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, SnoSki14 said: Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall. Expand Take a break. Im serious. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Upton snow map Friday night into Saturday morning 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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