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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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  On 1/26/2022 at 4:25 AM, Jt17 said:

That's a sound strategy 5 days and more, but I think starting now it's pretty fun to follow along intently. Although, if you care about your loved ones it's probably not the healthiest way to go about it.

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Oh sure this storm I'm buying in at this point and following intently, all in, theres enough evidence to buy in at this point. 

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I know everybody's hopes were up for the GFS to tick west, so when it didn't it was disappointing. That being said, it was really just a minor wobble east. If it jumped significantly east, that would be cause for alarm, but for now I would treat it as a nothingburger. 

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Overall all global - EC, GFS, CMC, UK, and even JMA and ICON have been pretty consistent for the past few cycles... especially considering the range. There have not been wild changes and there's even a general inter-model consensus on trof amplitude and orientation as well as location and strength of surface features. Minor differences obviously have huge implications for surface weather, but this consistency is a marked improvement from years past.

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  On 1/26/2022 at 4:24 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow.

Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold.

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The Euro going east tonight would be concerning, but I think tomorrow’s runs are more telling.

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There's a 1012 mb low in south central NM. Nothing but E-NE winds ahead of it. That is probably a good sign. And wasn't the NAM the best model for the last storm that ended up going a lot further west than many other models were saying it would? 

Bet the Euro comes in with another rocking solution tonight. That warm Atlantic water is just sitting there waiting for its time to do battle. It argues for a west solution, tuck, and stall potential.

 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/sfcmap.pdf

 

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  On 1/26/2022 at 4:29 AM, HVSnowLover said:

I mean this is seeming more and more like Boston's storm but it doesn't mean NYC can't get hammered too but we are on the nailbiter side of it where as Boston is pretty much locked in.    

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Yes, as always with this type of system. Sometimes they work out like 1/4/18, sometimes they don't like 1/27/15 (Suffolk County was rocked). 

 

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I don't think it matters too much whether the EC shifts one way or the other tonight as long as the changes are relatively minor. I'd guess a shift east is slightly more likely than west just based on it being on the western edge of consensus, but who knows. Either way, the outcome won't be decided tonight. All of the 0z runs are close enough where modest changes could lead to a widespread major snowstorm.

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  On 1/26/2022 at 4:14 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Normally I would think the GFS is just doing its normal waffling but it has done really well this season. 

It also highlights what a thread the needle storm this really is.

All it takes is that sw hanging back a little longer and we get almost nothing.

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Well, obviously that's the risk but it's not "all she wrote" because of one GFS run that barely budged 3 days before the event.

However, if the Euro takes a noticeable shift east tonight, it's trouble.

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  On 1/26/2022 at 4:19 AM, SnoSki14 said:

That's great. If the models agree on this then the GFS becomes an outlier.

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  On 1/26/2022 at 4:20 AM, jm1220 said:

Canadian not a huge change to me, went a little west. Goes just inside the B/M and runs into the outer Cape. Would be a good hit for just about everyone, biggie east of NYC. I'm not that concerned about the GFS at this point. It's been pretty inconsistent overall.

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It's significant for N and W peeps. It was further west and N and W precip was more robust. 

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The UK is far enough east that it almost fringes Boston. Not quite though. H5 still looked salvageable for us. No precipitation west of NYC. Totally plausible... just to keep us from getting greedy with high expectations.

From here we need to avoid any major shifts or seeing multiple runs in a row shift east.

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Lol so many dumb comments.

Today Canadian trended slightly back West, Euro trended slightly west with a bomb solution supported by a very confident ensemble and the NAM, GFS slightly trended WEST a bit today from where it was last night (though people can't remember 1 run to the next so they think it didn't) and the UKIE has been OTS nearly every run. That's where we're at you weirdos. Nothing really happened except we've gotten more evidence that a powerful storm with serious potential for our area is developing.

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